Introduction
Looking towards the S21 draft season, I wanted to take a look at the top players by position. I'm new to playing in the league (having not actually been drafted yet) so I figured the best place to start was looking at TPE. In the article, I'll cover top TPE claimers in the S21 NSFL draft class, look at stats for the top players, and try to figure out where they'll end up.
I don't know the general rate of TPE claiming for players but I've developed a few categories based on looking at the S21 draftees. I'm looking at updates only through 2/15 and so obviously there's a lot of training that can get done before the draft. Additionally, I'm focusing on TPE gained since the 1/18 updates. Most players showed a big spike then which I'm guessing is from the training camp, equipment purchase, etc. that becomes available after being drafted. While looking through profiles, there were higher TPE players who had that spike but then nothing since then and then there were others with consistent gains over time. I believe that looking at gains since is the more useful predictor of continued activity and also gives better insight into the draft tiers of the class looking forward. It also helps to remove differences between players who joined a bit earlier and got an extra week or two of offseason TPE tasks in vs. those who joined later. And of course gain rate isn't the only factor when looking at a player - teams have to consider their needs after all. Plus, one player claiming 2 more TPE per week than another is neat but if the other player has 100 more TPE right now, that's also an important consideration.
Data reference: I looked at 109 S21 players. I considered 63 of them to be active. For the active players, the median TPE gained since 1/18 was amusingly enough 63 and the standard deviation was just over 29. I did not discard players who I considered outliers (eg one player spent no TPEs by 1/18 but did spend TPE after). All players were copied from team rosters on the TPE tracker on 2/21.
Categories
Inactive: The DSFL has plenty of actual players with only their initial 50 TPE used but I use this category to include players with a low TPE total and no updates in the month of February. Some of these players fall into a subcategory I'll call 'creation hype' where they had a big update after creation or drafting but haven't done anything since then. Either way, I expect players in this range to not contribute at the NSFL level unless they return to activity.
Top/above/below/bottom gainers: I divied players into top/above/below/bottom based on their TPE claiming from 1/18-2/15. Top is active players who claimed more than 1 standard deviation above the median (aka 93 or more) TPE from 1/18-2/15, above is players within 1 standard deviation above the median (aka 64-92), below is players within 1 standard deviation below the median (aka 34-62), and low is players who claimed fewer TPE than 1 standard deviation below the median (aka 33 or less). This works out to 9 top claiming players, 22 above median players, 1 exactly the median player, 14 below median players, 16 bottom claiming players, and 1 outlier (see next category).
Outliers: Some players can have activity that just does not work with with my model. One example is Douglas Quail who did not claim any additional TPE by the time of the 1/18 update (though looking at his update thread it looks like that should have been 57), had 47 in the 1/25, and then 14 since. So, I'd say the 'real' activity looks falls into the bottom claimer category, but I'm just going to instead label the player as an outlier instead and let readers decide.
Top 5 per position
So, who are the top claimers? How did they do in the DSFL? I'll cover offense, then defense, and then K/P. To break ties on claimed TPE or when inactive players were included, I used highest total TPE.
For each player I give name, TPE claimed from 1/18 to 2/15, activity category, and rank of total TPE for that position
Quarterback
The quarterback position has 7 total players with 4 active and 3 inactive. Looking over the TPE totals of these players vs. a lowest value of 527 in the NSFL I imagine these players won't be drafted as starters.
1. George O’Donnell, 84 TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games, 141/321 1339 yards 5TD 6INT
2. Zero Two, 72 TPE, above median claimer., 2nd total TPE
14 games, 201/389 1929 yards 7TD 8INT
3. Chris Ramos, 43 TPE, below median claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games, 169/322 1899 yards 13TD 14INT
4. Cal Lidous, 11 TPE, bottom claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 236/428 2378 yards 10TD 20INT
5. The Xekutioner, inactive, 5th total TPE
14 games 176/362 2004 yards 5TD 16INT
None of these players had great seasons with all producing more INTs than TDs. O'Donnell featured the highest TPE claiming rate which allowed him to surpass Two as the overall TPE leader as of 2/15. Xekutioner being inactive I think also showed somewhat in the stats as his interception rate was way higher than the others.
Running Backs
The running back position has 14 total players with 8 active and 6 inactive. I'll be posting rushing stats but not receiving stats because that would take more time and this is getting long already.
1. Juniped Catfish, 79 TPE, above median claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 226 rushes 4.8/rush average 9TD
2. Rick Skuff, 68 TPE, above median claimer, 7th total TPE
12 games 87 rushes 4.9/rush average 3TD
3. Rando Cardrissian, 40 TPE, below median claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games 241 rushes 4.9/rush average 14TD
4. Ed Barker, 31 TPE, bottom claimer, 2nd overall TPE
14 games 220 rushes 4.3/rush average 9TD
5. Baby Yoda, 26 TPE, bottom claimer, 1st overall TPE
14 games 279 rushes 5.1/rush average 7TD
The top 2 RBs by overall TPE were still in the top 5 of claiming but at a lower rate than the others. Everyone knows of Baby Yoda taking a step back from deep involvement due to classes so that's understandable but the earlier commitment shows through with his higher rush total and average than the others.
Notable additional mention: Dax Frost has announced a position change to RB after this season. He would have the top earning RB and top overall TPE RB so I think he jumps into the top pick. All evaluation of TPE is purely based on the TPE tracker team rosters/positions, though, so I'm not including Frost on the top 5.
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver position has 15 total players with 7 active and 8 inactive3
1. Red Arrow, 98 TPE, top claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games, 35 receptions 421 yards 1TD
2. Remon Kurisuto, 91 TPE, above median claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 45 receptions 583 yards 4TDs
3. Jerome Davis, 76 TPE, above median claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 42 receptions 541 yards 4TDs
4. Chris Kross, 73 TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 43 receptions 622 yards 2TDs
5. Smolder Bravestone, 35 TPE, below median claimer, 7th total TPE
14 games 15 receptions 220 yards 0TDs
The top 4 WRs all look like great options. Arrow has the highest earning rate but lowest overall TPE of the 4. Each had pretty good seasons with Arrow's lower TPE total likely explaining his lower stats.
Tight Ends
The tight end position has 11 total players with 8 active and 3 inactive.
1. Reynaud Haugland, 93 TPE, top claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 45 receptions 429 yards 0TDs
2. Osiris Firestorm-Fjord, 66 TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 38 receptions 258 yards 1TD
3. Leon McDavid, 66 TPE, above median claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 45 receptions 445 yards 2TDs
4. Rainier Wolfcastle, 45 TPE, below median claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games 21 receptions 169 yards 2TDs
5. Tree Gelbman, 43 TPE, below median claimer, 5th total TPE
14 games 60 receptions 489 yards 2TDs
As with the WRs, the top 3 TEs look like great options. Wolfcastle and Gelbman aren't slouches either and Gelbman in particular led the league in receptions across all positions.
Offensive Line
The offensive line position has 6 total players with 3 active and 3 inactive.
1. Simon Tremblay, 116 TPE, top claimer, 1st total TPE
12 games 19 pancakes 2 sacks allowed
2. Douglas Quail, 61 TPE claimed, outlier, 2nd total TPE
14 games 56 pancakes 0 sacks allowed
3. Emmett Higgins, 32 TPE, bottom claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 42 pancakes 2 sacks allowed
4. Dylan Green, inactive, 4th total TPE
14 games 45 pancakes 0 sacks allowed
5. Richard "Dick" Gardner, inactive, 5th total TPE
14 games 39 pancakes 0 sacks allowed
Tremblay looks like the clear leader when it comes to this year's offensive line options with a steady TPE gain every week despite lower stats. Quail could be a good pickup if he improves on rate of claiming but seems risky to me.
Defensive Tackle
The defensive tack position has 8 total players with 7 active and 1 inactive.
1. Riles McTackle, 94 TPE, top claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games 0TFL 1FF/0FR 7 sacks
2. Jaune Arc, 88 TPE, above median claimer, 6th total TPE
14 games 3TFL 0FF/0FR, 1 sack
3. Pete "Plop" Miller, 84 TPE, above median claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 9 TFL 2FF/0FR, 4 sacks
4. Rapid Eagle, 76 TPE, above median claimer, 5th total TPE
14 games 3TFL 0FF/0FR 11 sacks
5. Otis Allen, 64 TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 12TFL 1FF/0FR 4 sacks
The DT position looks really deep this year with the top 5 all earning more than the median active players. Arc is probably a riskier pick than the others in the short term, being behind the others by more than 40 TPE. The 6th earner, Sardine Beaner, is actually at 196 overall TPE so I would expect him to be in consideration. Overall, the position is deep enough that I could see teams waiting to focus on other areas of need since they should have multiple chances at a good player.
Defensive End
The defensive end position has 12 total players with 7 active and 5 inactive.
1. Chip Otle, 109 TPE, top claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games, 13 TFL 0FF/0FR 7 sacks
2. Larry Longshot, 87 TPE, above median claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games 14TFL 0FF/0FR 4 sacks
3. Matt Hole, 70 TPE, above median claimer, 6th total TPE
14 games 18TFL 4 sacks
4. Immanuel Blackstone, 67 TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 22TFL 2FF/1FR 9 sacks and a safety
5. Jackmerius Tacktheritrix, 34 TPE, below median claimer, 7th total TPE
14 games 27TFL 0FF/0FR 8 sacks
Otle and Blackston look like the two top options here - Otle has a higher earn rate but is more than 50 TPE behind Blackstone and the stats reflect that advantage.
Linebacker
The linebacker position has 11 total players with 9 active and 2 inactive.
1. Trevor Mouseman, 103 TPE, top claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 129 tackles 1FF/0FR4 sacks 0INT 3PD
2. Holden Summers, 102 TPE, top claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 83 tackles 1FF/1FR 7 sacks 1INT 9PD
3. Perry Tucker Jr., 92 TPE, above median claimer, 4th total TPE
12 games 97 tackles 2FF/0FR 7sack 1INT 9PD
4. Douglas Quaid, 83 TPE, above median claimer, 1st overall TPE
14 games 144 tackles 1FF/0FR 2 sacks 0INT 2PD
5. Ugarth the Dissector
14 games 59 tackles 1FF/0FR 1 sack 0INT 0PD
Linebacker is another position with good depth. The top 4 all have over 170 total TPE and more than 80 TPE claimed. Quaid has the highest total and the best stats but I think any of them seem like fine pickups, much like DT.
Cornerback
The cornerback position has 9 total players with 5 active and 4 inactive.
1. HeHateMe PickSix, 107 TPE, top claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 0FF/0FR 0 sack 5INT 19PD and a blocked punt
2. Rotticus Scott, 95 TPE, top claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 1FF/0FR 1 sack 0INT 2PD
3. Dax Frost, 63 TPE, actually the median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 0FF/0FR 0 sacks 2INT 10PD
4. Jeremy Quellers, 43 TPE, below median claimer, 5th total TPE
14 games 1FF/1FR 0 sacks 5INT 15PD
5. Atlas Quin, 32 TPE, bottom claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games 1FF/0FR 0 sacks 2INT 8PD
CB on the surface looks good with 2 players over 200 TPE and some great earning. However, Frost has announced a position change to RB after this season which I think changes this position pick from a close decision between PickSix and Frost to making PickSix the clear top option. Additionally, Scott's stats look a bit odd compared to the other CBs. The Football index has him listed as a strong safety so I'm guessing that he was played out of position.
Safety
The cornerback position has 10 total players with 3 active and 7 inactive.
1. Prince Vegeta, 84TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 4TFL 1FF/2FR 1 sack 3INT 7PD
2. Matt Murphy, 77 TPE, above median claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 2TFL 1FF/1FR 1 sack 7INT 17PD and a TD
3. Jon Bois, 61 TPE, below median claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 0TFL 0FF/0FR 2 sacks 1INT 1PD
4. Herb Altee, inactive
14 games 0TFL 0FF/1FR 5 sacks 2INT 3PD and 2 TDs
5. Rub A. Chikin, inactive
14 games 0TFL 0FF/0FR 1 sack 4INT 5PD and a TD
Safety has 2 clear great options, one decent earner with a much lower point base, and then a whole lot of inactives. I expect the top 2 to go early and wouldn't be surprised to see Bois off the board earlier than you might think based on stats.
Kicker/Punter
The kicker/punter position has 6 total players with 3 active and 3 inactive.
1. John "Tripod" Smirh, 77 TPE, above median claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 30/31XP 24/29FG 92 punts 44.5/punt
2. Lefty Louis, 76 TPE, above median claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 21/25XP 19/24FG 92 punts 42.7/punt
3. Dougie Smalls, 50 TPE, below median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 18/20XP 19/21FG 91 punts 45.5/punt
4. Thelonius Junk, inactive
14 games 26/27XP 15/16FG 100 punts 44.4/punt
5. J.J. "Jay" Jay-Jaymison, inactive
12 games no placekicking 66 punts 44.9/punt
The top 3 kickers all look fine, the higher earners having lower TPE totals. I am just sad that Jay-Jaymison is inactive because that's a fun name.
Mock Draft
So, taking the positional strengths into account, what do I think the actual picks look like? Well if I had good information on each teams' needs I could do a better job: Keeping my approach to a similar method as the TPE gaining, I looked at each team's roster on the TPE tracker on the morning of 2/22 and tried to figure out their needs. This doesn't take into account trades, retirements, etc. that's not reflected on those pages.
Team Breakdowns
The Outlaws have no first round picks but they have 2 seconds at 14 and 16 so they should still have some good picks available.
Positionwise, they only have 1 RB and he's below the league average TPE. Top players in the WR, TE, DT, CB, and S are each above league average. The biggest holes looks like DE and LB, which each only have 1 player, and K since they don't have a kicker.
Summary needs: DE, LB, K
The Copperheads have a great looking offense as you'd expect of the Ultiminus winners. Defense is a little more highs and lows. Biggest hole look like DT and this is a good draft for that need. LB is probably in play too seeing as they have one starting regression this year.
Summary needs: DT, LB
With only one DT on the roster and that one DT into the regression years, DT seems like the obvious area to draft in. The hawks also are old but possibly servicible at DE/LB/CB/S - defense seems like a major weakness going forward. Picking 5th and 15th, I could see the Hawks try to trade down to pick up some more picks in a draft that's reasonably deep in defense.
Summary needs: DT, DE, LB
Chicago has obvious gaps at DE and CB plus no TE on the roster. They have the 6th and picks so that should be sufficient to help them paper over those gaps.
Summary needs: TE, DE, CB
Looking over the Yeti's roster, they have some strong offensive weapons but are missing a TE and have a WR on the old side of things. They're starting the lowest TPE DT in the NSFL so that seems like an area to try to upgrade but might have to be deferred with 3 older CBs and only a single safety on the roster. With the 7th and 17th picks in their hands, I see TE/S as the top needs but WR/CB as areas of interest if a top prospect is available when Colorado's on the clock.
Summary needs: TE, WR, CB, S
The New Orleans offense has some good depth but is starting to get older. WR seems like an area they'll want to improve at. Their defense looks really good though I assume they'll want at least one more DE. NO has the 8th and 18th picks but 8th might not be enough to get a top WR. If 3 WRs go in the top 5 I could see NO trying to trade up to ensure they get the fourth.
Summary needs: WR, DE
There's definitely a number of older players on the Otters' roster which I'm sure will be a fun headache for the GM. They have a solid RB and 2 great WRs but their TE is getting older. On the defense side, they have an S11 DE, no DT, and an S13 LB but a younger solid secondary. DT and DE seem like the more immediate needs to me but getting a younger LB is probably a priority as well. Orange County does have the first overall pick which gives them a lot of power. DE is not nearly as deep as their other needs and with a lot of teams needing D-line help I could see them going there with their first pick.
Summary needs: DT, DE, LB, TE
Philly's got some a great collection of offensive weapons and a QB that's developing. Their D-Line isn't great but it's probably enough to focus on LB where they have only a single player. the CB position is getting older but not as old as their safeties. Liberty has the 3rd pick giving them great freedom to fill a position but then don't pick again until 21. The LB class is deep enough that I could see them trying to trade down thinking they'll be fine with whoever they get but I could also see them taking one of the blue chip safeties.
Summary needs: LB, S
At first glance, San Jose's offense seems a bit rough. However, QB and TE are set, they have 2 solid WRs and a 3rd not so solid one, and it looks like they drafted a replacement RB last year who has some room to grow. I could see the Sabercats being satisfied with that because they have some big holes on the defensive side with 2 members of their D-line being from S12 and an S9 LB who looks to be the oldest player in the league. Assuming he retires, that leaves them with one really good LB, one...not, and somehow 5 safties in a group that's facing its own age issues. And they have a single CB, though maybe the safeties are playing out of position? And additionally, with an S17 kicker at 128 TPE I could see them wanting to upgrade there as well. The good news, though, is that San Jose has the 2nd, 4th, and 12th picks. I think the top priorities have to be DE and LB but I couldn't be shocked to see a CB taken.
Summary needs: DE, LB, CB
Yellowknife looks to have a solid offense but they're getting older at WR. I assume a lack of a TE is an intentional choice to go with a second RB, but it still seems like an area they could go back to. Turning to the defense, the Wraiths have some great but older players in the secondary, a star DE along with some more role players, and no DTs. Their kicker is also getting old. S overall seems like the top need to address with their 9th pick but they'll need to find some replacements for other positions at some point.
Summary needs: S, DT, K, TE/WR
Round 1
1. - Immanuel Blackstone, DE
I think the Otters take the DE as a need and go to the higher base TPE. I doubt that Otle impresses enough to overcome Blackstone's higher TPE starting point.
2. - Chip Otle, DE
With DE being a need, one coming off the board as the first pick, and not a deep pool, I see the Sabercats taking Otle as highest earner.
3. - Prince Vegeta, S
I think Liberty tries to get the Outlaws to bite on a trade but with the top 2 DEs off the board I don't see it happening. If only one of them is gone, I wouldn't be shocked to see that trade since I think Liberty really wants to go for more picks here. Assuming that doesn't happen, Vegeta is a great boost in power level for Philly's secondary.
4. - HeHateMe PickSix, CB
With a CB need and one clear best CB, I think this is the obvious pick. I specifically don't think the Sabercats pick PickSix 2nd if the Otters take a DE because then I think it drastically increases the chances of the Outlaws trading into the 3rd pick to take Otle, leaving Sabercats without a great DE option.
5. - Pete "Plop" Miller, DT
Assuming they can't trade down, I see the Hawks taking whichever DT they're most comfortable with.
6. - Osiris Firestorm-Fjord, TE
If Chicago's OK with Rotticus Scott's numbers I could see him being taken with 2 best CBs and 3+ good TEs.
7. - Matt Murphy, S
With only 3 good safeties and the top one gone, I see this being a good pick for Colorado.
8. - Chris Kross, WR
I think NO will take their pick of WRs over the 3rd best DE. Kross has the highest TPE total but I'm thinking Arrow would be a sneaky good pick. Best actual pick probably would involve talking to the players and seeing their plans with regards to activity, but I'm not doing that for this article.
9. - Riles McTackle, DT
I have a good feeling about McTackle. With a name like that how could I not? I think the wraiths go for the DT here to help nail down the line in a draft fairly deep in their other areas of need other than safety. If they have a good talk with Bois and are convinced he'll be active he could be the pick here instead as the last active safety, but a quality DT is important too.
10. - Douglas Quaid, LB
DT is another need for the Copperheads and 2 are already off the board, but I think they pick their favorite LB here instead.
Round 2
11. - Rotticus Scott, CB
With TE addresssed, I see Chicago hitting up the CB pool before all that's left are inactives.
12. - Trevor Mouseman, LB
Mouseman helps fill San Jose's third need with their third pick. I think they're pretty satisfied at this point.
13. - Reynaud Haugland, TE
For me it's between Haugland and Otis Allen but I think the Otters take the TE and hope a DT makes it back to them.
14. - Larry Longshot, DE
With DE going 1-2 I could see the outlaws trying to trade up to get a chance at one of the more active DEs. But with how I've got things going to this point, the Outlaws are rewarded for not moving and get a good third DE off the board.
15. - Matt Hole, DE
With active DEs getting to short supply, I think the Hawks take one and try to get an LB in a later round.
16, - Holden Summers, LB
I see the Outlaws addressing their other big defensive need. I also see them being really happy if they pull this off.
17. - Leon McDavid, TE
Colorado addresses its other big need and gets the last of the top 3 TEs.
18. - Jon Bois
With no standout DE options left, I see NO doubling down on Safety to get the last remaining active one in the draft. He'll also be a key helper in figuring out when other teams are surrender punting!
19. - Otis Allen, DT
With no active safeties on the board, I think the Wraiths won't be super happy. I'm putting them on doubling down at DT in a draft with a bunch of good ones and figuring out options later.
20. - Rapid Eagle, DT
With DTs getting popular, I think Austin addresses another need.
Further Study
1. Does my methodology disanvantage active players since they've already completed some of the 1-time TPE tasks that the bigger gainers are getting done?
2. How well do DSFL TPE claimed predict NSFL results (both TPE claimed and stats)?
Looking towards the S21 draft season, I wanted to take a look at the top players by position. I'm new to playing in the league (having not actually been drafted yet) so I figured the best place to start was looking at TPE. In the article, I'll cover top TPE claimers in the S21 NSFL draft class, look at stats for the top players, and try to figure out where they'll end up.
I don't know the general rate of TPE claiming for players but I've developed a few categories based on looking at the S21 draftees. I'm looking at updates only through 2/15 and so obviously there's a lot of training that can get done before the draft. Additionally, I'm focusing on TPE gained since the 1/18 updates. Most players showed a big spike then which I'm guessing is from the training camp, equipment purchase, etc. that becomes available after being drafted. While looking through profiles, there were higher TPE players who had that spike but then nothing since then and then there were others with consistent gains over time. I believe that looking at gains since is the more useful predictor of continued activity and also gives better insight into the draft tiers of the class looking forward. It also helps to remove differences between players who joined a bit earlier and got an extra week or two of offseason TPE tasks in vs. those who joined later. And of course gain rate isn't the only factor when looking at a player - teams have to consider their needs after all. Plus, one player claiming 2 more TPE per week than another is neat but if the other player has 100 more TPE right now, that's also an important consideration.
Data reference: I looked at 109 S21 players. I considered 63 of them to be active. For the active players, the median TPE gained since 1/18 was amusingly enough 63 and the standard deviation was just over 29. I did not discard players who I considered outliers (eg one player spent no TPEs by 1/18 but did spend TPE after). All players were copied from team rosters on the TPE tracker on 2/21.
Categories
Inactive: The DSFL has plenty of actual players with only their initial 50 TPE used but I use this category to include players with a low TPE total and no updates in the month of February. Some of these players fall into a subcategory I'll call 'creation hype' where they had a big update after creation or drafting but haven't done anything since then. Either way, I expect players in this range to not contribute at the NSFL level unless they return to activity.
Top/above/below/bottom gainers: I divied players into top/above/below/bottom based on their TPE claiming from 1/18-2/15. Top is active players who claimed more than 1 standard deviation above the median (aka 93 or more) TPE from 1/18-2/15, above is players within 1 standard deviation above the median (aka 64-92), below is players within 1 standard deviation below the median (aka 34-62), and low is players who claimed fewer TPE than 1 standard deviation below the median (aka 33 or less). This works out to 9 top claiming players, 22 above median players, 1 exactly the median player, 14 below median players, 16 bottom claiming players, and 1 outlier (see next category).
Outliers: Some players can have activity that just does not work with with my model. One example is Douglas Quail who did not claim any additional TPE by the time of the 1/18 update (though looking at his update thread it looks like that should have been 57), had 47 in the 1/25, and then 14 since. So, I'd say the 'real' activity looks falls into the bottom claimer category, but I'm just going to instead label the player as an outlier instead and let readers decide.
Top 5 per position
So, who are the top claimers? How did they do in the DSFL? I'll cover offense, then defense, and then K/P. To break ties on claimed TPE or when inactive players were included, I used highest total TPE.
For each player I give name, TPE claimed from 1/18 to 2/15, activity category, and rank of total TPE for that position
Quarterback
The quarterback position has 7 total players with 4 active and 3 inactive. Looking over the TPE totals of these players vs. a lowest value of 527 in the NSFL I imagine these players won't be drafted as starters.
1. George O’Donnell, 84 TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games, 141/321 1339 yards 5TD 6INT
2. Zero Two, 72 TPE, above median claimer., 2nd total TPE
14 games, 201/389 1929 yards 7TD 8INT
3. Chris Ramos, 43 TPE, below median claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games, 169/322 1899 yards 13TD 14INT
4. Cal Lidous, 11 TPE, bottom claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 236/428 2378 yards 10TD 20INT
5. The Xekutioner, inactive, 5th total TPE
14 games 176/362 2004 yards 5TD 16INT
None of these players had great seasons with all producing more INTs than TDs. O'Donnell featured the highest TPE claiming rate which allowed him to surpass Two as the overall TPE leader as of 2/15. Xekutioner being inactive I think also showed somewhat in the stats as his interception rate was way higher than the others.
Running Backs
The running back position has 14 total players with 8 active and 6 inactive. I'll be posting rushing stats but not receiving stats because that would take more time and this is getting long already.
1. Juniped Catfish, 79 TPE, above median claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 226 rushes 4.8/rush average 9TD
2. Rick Skuff, 68 TPE, above median claimer, 7th total TPE
12 games 87 rushes 4.9/rush average 3TD
3. Rando Cardrissian, 40 TPE, below median claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games 241 rushes 4.9/rush average 14TD
4. Ed Barker, 31 TPE, bottom claimer, 2nd overall TPE
14 games 220 rushes 4.3/rush average 9TD
5. Baby Yoda, 26 TPE, bottom claimer, 1st overall TPE
14 games 279 rushes 5.1/rush average 7TD
The top 2 RBs by overall TPE were still in the top 5 of claiming but at a lower rate than the others. Everyone knows of Baby Yoda taking a step back from deep involvement due to classes so that's understandable but the earlier commitment shows through with his higher rush total and average than the others.
Notable additional mention: Dax Frost has announced a position change to RB after this season. He would have the top earning RB and top overall TPE RB so I think he jumps into the top pick. All evaluation of TPE is purely based on the TPE tracker team rosters/positions, though, so I'm not including Frost on the top 5.
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver position has 15 total players with 7 active and 8 inactive3
1. Red Arrow, 98 TPE, top claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games, 35 receptions 421 yards 1TD
2. Remon Kurisuto, 91 TPE, above median claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 45 receptions 583 yards 4TDs
3. Jerome Davis, 76 TPE, above median claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 42 receptions 541 yards 4TDs
4. Chris Kross, 73 TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 43 receptions 622 yards 2TDs
5. Smolder Bravestone, 35 TPE, below median claimer, 7th total TPE
14 games 15 receptions 220 yards 0TDs
The top 4 WRs all look like great options. Arrow has the highest earning rate but lowest overall TPE of the 4. Each had pretty good seasons with Arrow's lower TPE total likely explaining his lower stats.
Tight Ends
The tight end position has 11 total players with 8 active and 3 inactive.
1. Reynaud Haugland, 93 TPE, top claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 45 receptions 429 yards 0TDs
2. Osiris Firestorm-Fjord, 66 TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 38 receptions 258 yards 1TD
3. Leon McDavid, 66 TPE, above median claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 45 receptions 445 yards 2TDs
4. Rainier Wolfcastle, 45 TPE, below median claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games 21 receptions 169 yards 2TDs
5. Tree Gelbman, 43 TPE, below median claimer, 5th total TPE
14 games 60 receptions 489 yards 2TDs
As with the WRs, the top 3 TEs look like great options. Wolfcastle and Gelbman aren't slouches either and Gelbman in particular led the league in receptions across all positions.
Offensive Line
The offensive line position has 6 total players with 3 active and 3 inactive.
1. Simon Tremblay, 116 TPE, top claimer, 1st total TPE
12 games 19 pancakes 2 sacks allowed
2. Douglas Quail, 61 TPE claimed, outlier, 2nd total TPE
14 games 56 pancakes 0 sacks allowed
3. Emmett Higgins, 32 TPE, bottom claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 42 pancakes 2 sacks allowed
4. Dylan Green, inactive, 4th total TPE
14 games 45 pancakes 0 sacks allowed
5. Richard "Dick" Gardner, inactive, 5th total TPE
14 games 39 pancakes 0 sacks allowed
Tremblay looks like the clear leader when it comes to this year's offensive line options with a steady TPE gain every week despite lower stats. Quail could be a good pickup if he improves on rate of claiming but seems risky to me.
Defensive Tackle
The defensive tack position has 8 total players with 7 active and 1 inactive.
1. Riles McTackle, 94 TPE, top claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games 0TFL 1FF/0FR 7 sacks
2. Jaune Arc, 88 TPE, above median claimer, 6th total TPE
14 games 3TFL 0FF/0FR, 1 sack
3. Pete "Plop" Miller, 84 TPE, above median claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 9 TFL 2FF/0FR, 4 sacks
4. Rapid Eagle, 76 TPE, above median claimer, 5th total TPE
14 games 3TFL 0FF/0FR 11 sacks
5. Otis Allen, 64 TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 12TFL 1FF/0FR 4 sacks
The DT position looks really deep this year with the top 5 all earning more than the median active players. Arc is probably a riskier pick than the others in the short term, being behind the others by more than 40 TPE. The 6th earner, Sardine Beaner, is actually at 196 overall TPE so I would expect him to be in consideration. Overall, the position is deep enough that I could see teams waiting to focus on other areas of need since they should have multiple chances at a good player.
Defensive End
The defensive end position has 12 total players with 7 active and 5 inactive.
1. Chip Otle, 109 TPE, top claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games, 13 TFL 0FF/0FR 7 sacks
2. Larry Longshot, 87 TPE, above median claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games 14TFL 0FF/0FR 4 sacks
3. Matt Hole, 70 TPE, above median claimer, 6th total TPE
14 games 18TFL 4 sacks
4. Immanuel Blackstone, 67 TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 22TFL 2FF/1FR 9 sacks and a safety
5. Jackmerius Tacktheritrix, 34 TPE, below median claimer, 7th total TPE
14 games 27TFL 0FF/0FR 8 sacks
Otle and Blackston look like the two top options here - Otle has a higher earn rate but is more than 50 TPE behind Blackstone and the stats reflect that advantage.
Linebacker
The linebacker position has 11 total players with 9 active and 2 inactive.
1. Trevor Mouseman, 103 TPE, top claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 129 tackles 1FF/0FR4 sacks 0INT 3PD
2. Holden Summers, 102 TPE, top claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 83 tackles 1FF/1FR 7 sacks 1INT 9PD
3. Perry Tucker Jr., 92 TPE, above median claimer, 4th total TPE
12 games 97 tackles 2FF/0FR 7sack 1INT 9PD
4. Douglas Quaid, 83 TPE, above median claimer, 1st overall TPE
14 games 144 tackles 1FF/0FR 2 sacks 0INT 2PD
5. Ugarth the Dissector
14 games 59 tackles 1FF/0FR 1 sack 0INT 0PD
Linebacker is another position with good depth. The top 4 all have over 170 total TPE and more than 80 TPE claimed. Quaid has the highest total and the best stats but I think any of them seem like fine pickups, much like DT.
Cornerback
The cornerback position has 9 total players with 5 active and 4 inactive.
1. HeHateMe PickSix, 107 TPE, top claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 0FF/0FR 0 sack 5INT 19PD and a blocked punt
2. Rotticus Scott, 95 TPE, top claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 1FF/0FR 1 sack 0INT 2PD
3. Dax Frost, 63 TPE, actually the median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 0FF/0FR 0 sacks 2INT 10PD
4. Jeremy Quellers, 43 TPE, below median claimer, 5th total TPE
14 games 1FF/1FR 0 sacks 5INT 15PD
5. Atlas Quin, 32 TPE, bottom claimer, 4th total TPE
14 games 1FF/0FR 0 sacks 2INT 8PD
CB on the surface looks good with 2 players over 200 TPE and some great earning. However, Frost has announced a position change to RB after this season which I think changes this position pick from a close decision between PickSix and Frost to making PickSix the clear top option. Additionally, Scott's stats look a bit odd compared to the other CBs. The Football index has him listed as a strong safety so I'm guessing that he was played out of position.
Safety
The cornerback position has 10 total players with 3 active and 7 inactive.
1. Prince Vegeta, 84TPE, above median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 4TFL 1FF/2FR 1 sack 3INT 7PD
2. Matt Murphy, 77 TPE, above median claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 2TFL 1FF/1FR 1 sack 7INT 17PD and a TD
3. Jon Bois, 61 TPE, below median claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 0TFL 0FF/0FR 2 sacks 1INT 1PD
4. Herb Altee, inactive
14 games 0TFL 0FF/1FR 5 sacks 2INT 3PD and 2 TDs
5. Rub A. Chikin, inactive
14 games 0TFL 0FF/0FR 1 sack 4INT 5PD and a TD
Safety has 2 clear great options, one decent earner with a much lower point base, and then a whole lot of inactives. I expect the top 2 to go early and wouldn't be surprised to see Bois off the board earlier than you might think based on stats.
Kicker/Punter
The kicker/punter position has 6 total players with 3 active and 3 inactive.
1. John "Tripod" Smirh, 77 TPE, above median claimer, 3rd total TPE
14 games 30/31XP 24/29FG 92 punts 44.5/punt
2. Lefty Louis, 76 TPE, above median claimer, 2nd total TPE
14 games 21/25XP 19/24FG 92 punts 42.7/punt
3. Dougie Smalls, 50 TPE, below median claimer, 1st total TPE
14 games 18/20XP 19/21FG 91 punts 45.5/punt
4. Thelonius Junk, inactive
14 games 26/27XP 15/16FG 100 punts 44.4/punt
5. J.J. "Jay" Jay-Jaymison, inactive
12 games no placekicking 66 punts 44.9/punt
The top 3 kickers all look fine, the higher earners having lower TPE totals. I am just sad that Jay-Jaymison is inactive because that's a fun name.
Mock Draft
So, taking the positional strengths into account, what do I think the actual picks look like? Well if I had good information on each teams' needs I could do a better job: Keeping my approach to a similar method as the TPE gaining, I looked at each team's roster on the TPE tracker on the morning of 2/22 and tried to figure out their needs. This doesn't take into account trades, retirements, etc. that's not reflected on those pages.
Team Breakdowns
The Outlaws have no first round picks but they have 2 seconds at 14 and 16 so they should still have some good picks available.
Positionwise, they only have 1 RB and he's below the league average TPE. Top players in the WR, TE, DT, CB, and S are each above league average. The biggest holes looks like DE and LB, which each only have 1 player, and K since they don't have a kicker.
Summary needs: DE, LB, K
The Copperheads have a great looking offense as you'd expect of the Ultiminus winners. Defense is a little more highs and lows. Biggest hole look like DT and this is a good draft for that need. LB is probably in play too seeing as they have one starting regression this year.
Summary needs: DT, LB
With only one DT on the roster and that one DT into the regression years, DT seems like the obvious area to draft in. The hawks also are old but possibly servicible at DE/LB/CB/S - defense seems like a major weakness going forward. Picking 5th and 15th, I could see the Hawks try to trade down to pick up some more picks in a draft that's reasonably deep in defense.
Summary needs: DT, DE, LB
Chicago has obvious gaps at DE and CB plus no TE on the roster. They have the 6th and picks so that should be sufficient to help them paper over those gaps.
Summary needs: TE, DE, CB
Looking over the Yeti's roster, they have some strong offensive weapons but are missing a TE and have a WR on the old side of things. They're starting the lowest TPE DT in the NSFL so that seems like an area to try to upgrade but might have to be deferred with 3 older CBs and only a single safety on the roster. With the 7th and 17th picks in their hands, I see TE/S as the top needs but WR/CB as areas of interest if a top prospect is available when Colorado's on the clock.
Summary needs: TE, WR, CB, S
The New Orleans offense has some good depth but is starting to get older. WR seems like an area they'll want to improve at. Their defense looks really good though I assume they'll want at least one more DE. NO has the 8th and 18th picks but 8th might not be enough to get a top WR. If 3 WRs go in the top 5 I could see NO trying to trade up to ensure they get the fourth.
Summary needs: WR, DE
There's definitely a number of older players on the Otters' roster which I'm sure will be a fun headache for the GM. They have a solid RB and 2 great WRs but their TE is getting older. On the defense side, they have an S11 DE, no DT, and an S13 LB but a younger solid secondary. DT and DE seem like the more immediate needs to me but getting a younger LB is probably a priority as well. Orange County does have the first overall pick which gives them a lot of power. DE is not nearly as deep as their other needs and with a lot of teams needing D-line help I could see them going there with their first pick.
Summary needs: DT, DE, LB, TE
Philly's got some a great collection of offensive weapons and a QB that's developing. Their D-Line isn't great but it's probably enough to focus on LB where they have only a single player. the CB position is getting older but not as old as their safeties. Liberty has the 3rd pick giving them great freedom to fill a position but then don't pick again until 21. The LB class is deep enough that I could see them trying to trade down thinking they'll be fine with whoever they get but I could also see them taking one of the blue chip safeties.
Summary needs: LB, S
At first glance, San Jose's offense seems a bit rough. However, QB and TE are set, they have 2 solid WRs and a 3rd not so solid one, and it looks like they drafted a replacement RB last year who has some room to grow. I could see the Sabercats being satisfied with that because they have some big holes on the defensive side with 2 members of their D-line being from S12 and an S9 LB who looks to be the oldest player in the league. Assuming he retires, that leaves them with one really good LB, one...not, and somehow 5 safties in a group that's facing its own age issues. And they have a single CB, though maybe the safeties are playing out of position? And additionally, with an S17 kicker at 128 TPE I could see them wanting to upgrade there as well. The good news, though, is that San Jose has the 2nd, 4th, and 12th picks. I think the top priorities have to be DE and LB but I couldn't be shocked to see a CB taken.
Summary needs: DE, LB, CB
Yellowknife looks to have a solid offense but they're getting older at WR. I assume a lack of a TE is an intentional choice to go with a second RB, but it still seems like an area they could go back to. Turning to the defense, the Wraiths have some great but older players in the secondary, a star DE along with some more role players, and no DTs. Their kicker is also getting old. S overall seems like the top need to address with their 9th pick but they'll need to find some replacements for other positions at some point.
Summary needs: S, DT, K, TE/WR
Round 1
1.
- Immanuel Blackstone, DEI think the Otters take the DE as a need and go to the higher base TPE. I doubt that Otle impresses enough to overcome Blackstone's higher TPE starting point.
2.
- Chip Otle, DEWith DE being a need, one coming off the board as the first pick, and not a deep pool, I see the Sabercats taking Otle as highest earner.
3.
- Prince Vegeta, SI think Liberty tries to get the Outlaws to bite on a trade but with the top 2 DEs off the board I don't see it happening. If only one of them is gone, I wouldn't be shocked to see that trade since I think Liberty really wants to go for more picks here. Assuming that doesn't happen, Vegeta is a great boost in power level for Philly's secondary.
4.
- HeHateMe PickSix, CBWith a CB need and one clear best CB, I think this is the obvious pick. I specifically don't think the Sabercats pick PickSix 2nd if the Otters take a DE because then I think it drastically increases the chances of the Outlaws trading into the 3rd pick to take Otle, leaving Sabercats without a great DE option.
5.
- Pete "Plop" Miller, DTAssuming they can't trade down, I see the Hawks taking whichever DT they're most comfortable with.
6.
- Osiris Firestorm-Fjord, TEIf Chicago's OK with Rotticus Scott's numbers I could see him being taken with 2 best CBs and 3+ good TEs.
7.
- Matt Murphy, SWith only 3 good safeties and the top one gone, I see this being a good pick for Colorado.
8.
- Chris Kross, WRI think NO will take their pick of WRs over the 3rd best DE. Kross has the highest TPE total but I'm thinking Arrow would be a sneaky good pick. Best actual pick probably would involve talking to the players and seeing their plans with regards to activity, but I'm not doing that for this article.
9.
- Riles McTackle, DTI have a good feeling about McTackle. With a name like that how could I not? I think the wraiths go for the DT here to help nail down the line in a draft fairly deep in their other areas of need other than safety. If they have a good talk with Bois and are convinced he'll be active he could be the pick here instead as the last active safety, but a quality DT is important too.
10.
- Douglas Quaid, LBDT is another need for the Copperheads and 2 are already off the board, but I think they pick their favorite LB here instead.
Round 2
11.
- Rotticus Scott, CBWith TE addresssed, I see Chicago hitting up the CB pool before all that's left are inactives.
12.
- Trevor Mouseman, LBMouseman helps fill San Jose's third need with their third pick. I think they're pretty satisfied at this point.
13.
- Reynaud Haugland, TEFor me it's between Haugland and Otis Allen but I think the Otters take the TE and hope a DT makes it back to them.
14.
- Larry Longshot, DEWith DE going 1-2 I could see the outlaws trying to trade up to get a chance at one of the more active DEs. But with how I've got things going to this point, the Outlaws are rewarded for not moving and get a good third DE off the board.
15.
- Matt Hole, DEWith active DEs getting to short supply, I think the Hawks take one and try to get an LB in a later round.
16,
- Holden Summers, LBI see the Outlaws addressing their other big defensive need. I also see them being really happy if they pull this off.
17.
- Leon McDavid, TEColorado addresses its other big need and gets the last of the top 3 TEs.
18.
- Jon BoisWith no standout DE options left, I see NO doubling down on Safety to get the last remaining active one in the draft. He'll also be a key helper in figuring out when other teams are surrender punting!
19.
- Otis Allen, DTWith no active safeties on the board, I think the Wraiths won't be super happy. I'm putting them on doubling down at DT in a draft with a bunch of good ones and figuring out options later.
20.
- Rapid Eagle, DTWith DTs getting popular, I think Austin addresses another need.
Further Study
1. Does my methodology disanvantage active players since they've already completed some of the 1-time TPE tasks that the bigger gainers are getting done?
2. How well do DSFL TPE claimed predict NSFL results (both TPE claimed and stats)?
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Draft Steal (retired S35 CB) - Profile/Update | Wiki
Troen Egghands (retired S22 DE) - Profile | Update | Wiki
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