I wrote up my take on protection and a mock for the expansion draft. In this article, I'll briefly go over how well I did predicting vs. actual, construct a simplified draft pool, and then mock out where I see players going.
Previous Mock Recap
Arizona: 6/7, 4/5 excluding GMs
I had them protecting S15 CB Knight over S20 WR Bur'Berry
Austin: 6/7, 4/5 excluding GMs
I had them protecting S15 WR Tidwell over S20 S Sexjoke
Baltimore: 7/8, 6/7 excluding GMs
I had S15 DE Taffy over S16 K Brand. I'm counting my pick of S12 WR Maddox as correctly matching their FA pass as he re-signed with the team.
Chicago: 5/7, 5/7 excluding GMs
I had S15 RB Leaf Jr. and S18 DT Harding (strictly speaking, FA pass) over S15 CB Ridley and S12 DT Skarsgard.
Colorado: 6/7, 4/5 excluding GMs
I had S16 WR Forty-Two over S18 TE Sauce
New Orleans: 5/7, 3/5 excluding GMs
I had S19 TE McCormick and S18 OL Rubbe over S15 LB Bode and S18 CB Rector
Orange County: 6/7, 4/5 excluding GMs
I had S15 LB Grievous over S20 DE Boucher
Philly: 5/7, 4/6 excluding GMs
I had S15 S D'Attoria V and S15 S McKinnie over S18 LB Howyanow and FA pass (which I believe was for S15 CB Emoji - not sure if the timing works out such that Emoji is unprotected instead). Avon's attempted $30m S23 extension was also vetoed by HO which I figured was the most likely outcome of that situation but still ended up with no protection.
San Jose: 6/7, 6/6 excluding GMs
I had S12 S Staley over S19 RB Tyerucker and didn't have Tyerucker as the most likely protection pick if Staley did retire.
Yellowknife: 7/9, 6/8 excluding GMs
I had S14 QB Bigsby over FA pass and I also had S13 WR Swift as an FA pass. Looking at the big YKW FA post it looks like one of those was actually for S10 S Grithead and they mention removing Swift. So, I'm going to count my pick of Swift as a miss even though it would have been an FA pass on the actual paperwork.
Overall: 59/73 (80.82%), 46/59 (77.97%) excluding GMs
I feel pretty good about my picks coming out of this. It looks like the biggest patterns was slightly overvaluing S15 players in the context of thinking they were important to the teams trying to win an Ulti next year. I guess either they're trying to keep the future in mind more or they think the S15 players are fairly safe from getting picked due to the expansion teams not wanting to only get 1-3 years of a player. There were also a couple specific players I took a game on, eg not protecting Austin's S20 S Sexjoke or Baltimore's S18 DE Baldari. One of those ended up being right while the other didn't, and I think I hit at a decent rate for most of my gambles. A couple retirements I wasn't quite expecting also led to some natural incorrect picks and I'm assuming the teams knew about those from internal discussions.
Real Ultimate Power Protection List Mock
To simplify things, I'm going to synthesize a draft pool by taking the top players from each team directly rather than in full draft order and then drafting out of the top 27 players. Given what I've learned from the protection lists, I'm going to lean towards younger active players as the top selection options.

1. S18 RB Ruff - the only unprotected players are from S15, FAs, inactive, or have been cut from the team. So, go for a decent RB you'll be able to use for a couple years. Protect - S15 CB Knight on the basis of him being active
2. S15 TE Irving - inactive, but every other option is some flavor of FA
No valid third pick

1. S20 WR Clay - younger player who's active on the site but hasn't updated in a few week. Protect - S16 TE Larson since despite fewer updates, looks to be somewhat active and offensively important after losing a WR
2. S20 CB Moreno - younger player a team will hope to lure back into activity. Protect - S15 WR Tidwell over S17 S Okura who is apparently coming to the site but is not earning at a high rate. Tidwell is at over 1k TPE and I think the team locks down the key offensive player over the third safety.
3. S17 S Okura - figure one of the expansion teams takes a chance.

1. (GM pick)
2. S18 DE Baldari - the player who specifically wants to go to an expansion team is a windmill slam dunk hole-in-one option to go first. Protect - S15 DE Taffy who, despite looking fairly inactive, seems like a good option to protect after losing the top DE on the team.
3. S14 LB Bakshi - I see only 2 non-retiring options left between S15 LB Nikka and S14 LB Bakshi. I figure the pick is the older player on the basis of both being inactive and Bakshi having more TPE. Probably a 50/50 overall

1. S19 S Beat - active but low TPE. Still, seems like a good choice to me. Protection - S18 LB Hockhuertz who seems to be around.
2. S19 DE Vassallo - basically a choice between Vassallo and 1 season of S15 RB Leaf Jr. and I assume the expansion teams will want more years even if it's for an inactive. Protection - S15 RB Leaf Jr.
3. S18 DT Bacon - low TPE DT over S18 K/P Espinosa.

1. S20 S Kirkby - prefer the younger player over S16 WR Forty-Two. Protection - S16 WR Forty-Two over S20 K/P Banana.
2. S20 K/P Banana - take the active younger player over some less active older options. Protection - S18 DE Ocewilder as a more active player over S18 RB Vincent and a younger player over S15 LB Gabagool.
3. S18 RB Vincent - has been active fairly recently, might be able to be lured back over the entering-regression but active S15 LB Gabagool.

1. S19 TE McCormick - very high earner, young, active so what's not to like? Protection - hard choices abound for NOLA but I'm going to dartboard S19 WR Podolak as the only active WR on their roster and having just lost a TE. Top other options include S19 LB Arianlacher as an active and younger defender. I'm thinking they won't protect S18 OL Rubbe since OL is potentially a luxury position for the expansion teams, and I'm thinking S18 CB Adams is also passed for now due to being older. Really, very little confidence in my expectations here.
2. S19 LB Arianlacher - active, decent earner, and a season younger than the other top options. Protect - S18 CB Adams over the OL or older options.
3. S17 CB Andrews - Rubbe is a really strong option at a season younger and a higher TPE but I don't know if the expansion teams will be willing to get an O-lineman when they will need CBs. If one or both of the teams is convinced about the humans over bots for tackle article series, Rubbe seems the more likely pick. I just don't know.

1. S17 WR Banks II - high earning active player getting the edge. Protect - S15 K/P Dasistwcopyandpastehisname as an active player over the not updating S15 LB Grievous.
2. S19 DE Lazer-Eyes - take a younger player who hasn't been updating at a thinner position and hope he can be lured back to the site (but I wouldn't be shocked if it's Grievous instead if the GMs spoke to the player). Protect - S15 LB Grievous who, even if not updating, is a pretty good part of the defense.
3. S16 LB Storm - another 'not updating but has been to the site' option and at a season younger than S15 RB Bigby I think this pick makes sense.

1. S20 LB Stephens - seems close to be between Stephens and the older S19 TE Blocksdale Jr. but I'll err on the side of youth. Protect - S19 TE Blocksdale Jr. as an active and now not encumbered by contract option.
2. S20 K/P Powers - picking the high earning active player even in a less-needed position. Protect - S18 DE Franchet as a lower TPE but recently returned to the site option.
3. S18 RB Dotson - hasn't updated in a while but neither have the other options. 541 TPE as an RB seems solid over S18 WR Dropson with 456.

1. S18 S Wozniak - with no really active options, go for a younger one with higher TPE. Protect - S18 CB Beck as not far behind Wozniak on the TPE side.
2. S18 S Grimnir - not likely to help much for the expansion teams, but it's pretty much Grimnir or the well into regression S12 DT Riposte. Protect - Riposte over some sub-200 TPE options.
3. S17 K/P Bobby - not really any good options left.

1. (GM pick)
2. (GM pick)
3. S20 TE Gragg - other options either have less TPE or are in/approaching regression.
Mock V2
Brief reminder:
- S21 RB Frost and S19 WR Gordon
- S23 DT Ka'ana'ana and S14 QB Havran
R1 P1 -
S19 TE Austin McCormick
With a focus on youth, I think the top two picks to consider are S19 TE McCormick and S18 DE Baldari. McCormick's younger and a higher earner so on paper seems like a more interesting option, especially with the possibility that Baldari wants to be reunited with his teammate Havran.
R1 P2 -
S18 DE Fabricio Baldari
Baldari is the top DE on the board and a former teammate of Havran, so I expect this to happen unless Baldari doesn't like the weather in Hawaii.
R2 P1 -
S17 CB Jordan Andrews
Going for a decent earning active CB with only 2 available.
R2 P2 -
S20 LB Warren Stephens
Continuing the youth theme, the Sailfish get an active member of the defense.
R3 P1 -
S20 S Thor Kirkby
Doubling down on the active defense plan Sarasots takes another S20 player.
R3 P2 -
S19 LB Mack Arianlacher
The more western of the two fish take the other active LB next to get some defense going.
R4 P1 -
S17 WR Dexter Banks II
The only other actively updating offense player and a good target for the veteran QB.
R4 P2 -
S19 S Beat
Take another active defender on the younger side.
R5 P1 -
S19 DE Gary Lazer-Eyes
Lazer-Eyes hasn't updated for a couple weeks but has been around, so make the pick and hope to lure the user back into updating.
R5 P2 -
S17 S Takeda Okura
Okura missed the last 2 updates, but had been around and is the most recently updating non-kicker.
R6 P1 -
S20 WR Jacoby Clay
Clay also hasn't updated in a couple weeks but also has been returning to the site. Still, take the young option to go with Banks II.
R6 P2 -
S20 CB Victor Moreno
With updates in March, Moreno isn't 100% inactive, but with no visits since 3/25 hope might be low. Still, grabbing the other available CB and most active of the remaining secondary options seems decent.
R7 P1 -
S20 K/P Venus Powers
A good kicker and an active forum user. With no TPE claims since 3/21, I'd say there's a better than even chance that Powers isn't updating due to a lack of marginal ROI on spent TPE slash to keep contract costs down. So, seems like a good pick.
R7 P2 -
S20 K/P Silver Banana
Banana is the other remaining active updater and I figure gets taken here so that Sarasota doesn't try to talk one of the two kickers into a position switch despite the lower TPE.
R8 P1 -
S18 RB Fuzzy Dotson
Take the highest TPE of the 3 S18 RBs. Dotson does have a player option for S22 and S23 so I could see grabbing Ruff instead if they're concerned about the player returning and opting out.
R8 P2 -
S16 LB Jaylen Storm
Hasn't updated in some time but still visits the site. And if completely inactive, at over 500TPE that's not terrible.
R9 P1 -
S19 DE Stevie Vassallo
Youngest option left on the board and a 300 TPE DE is serviceable.
R9 P2 -
S18 S Joseph Wozniak
Highst TPE of remainling defenders outside of in-regression Bakshi.
R10 P1 -
S18 RB Ruff Ruff
In an amusing coincidence, Ruff gets picked at the same spot as my previous mock. Highest TPE of remaining players outside of TE Irving.
R10 P2 -
S18 RB Michael Vincent
Despite GM Frost at RB, Vincent is the highest TPE not in regression by a lot.
R11 P1 -
S15 TE Jammerson Irving
Irving will be in a first year of regression, but I think a 640 TPE TE will be more useful than a sub-200 TPE defender. I could see getting 2 (or 3 if drafts don't go as hoped) years of play from Irving.
R11 P2 -
S18 S Oswald Grimnir
With 4 remaining inactive options where 1 is an S14 LB, 1 is a 128 TPE kicker, and the other 2 are younger DBs I think they take the DB.
R12 P1 -
S18 DT Trae Bacon
See also: previous pick text.
R12 P2 -
S14 LB Sandip "Sandy" Bakshi
Bakshi isn't likely to start but seems likely to be a more useful option to have on the team than a second kicker at 128 TPE.
Conclusion
As I said above, I think my first mock draft undervalued youth. It's entirely possible that this one is going to overvalue it and the actual GMs will take a more balanced approach. I do think that the simplified protection approach actually led to a reasonable draft pool. I don't have high confidence it's going to match what actually happened since I figure the existing GMs will be doing protections based more on who is getting taken (and I extra don't have much confidence in NOLA's protection choices). Still, with most eyes looking now towards the S22 NSFL draft I figured it would be interesting to remind people that the expansion draft is also important (and maybe more so!) when it comes to shaping the next couple years of the league. The expansion GMs will also have to be considering things like cap space, remaining years on contract, actual conversations with the players, etc. to help shape their teams into a competitor. I actually don't know if the GMs are allowed to talk to the users but I assume so. If not, that will make their jobs even harder, I assume.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing the expansion stream in less than 48 hours.
Previous Mock Recap
Arizona: 6/7, 4/5 excluding GMs
I had them protecting S15 CB Knight over S20 WR Bur'Berry
Austin: 6/7, 4/5 excluding GMs
I had them protecting S15 WR Tidwell over S20 S Sexjoke
Baltimore: 7/8, 6/7 excluding GMs
I had S15 DE Taffy over S16 K Brand. I'm counting my pick of S12 WR Maddox as correctly matching their FA pass as he re-signed with the team.
Chicago: 5/7, 5/7 excluding GMs
I had S15 RB Leaf Jr. and S18 DT Harding (strictly speaking, FA pass) over S15 CB Ridley and S12 DT Skarsgard.
Colorado: 6/7, 4/5 excluding GMs
I had S16 WR Forty-Two over S18 TE Sauce
New Orleans: 5/7, 3/5 excluding GMs
I had S19 TE McCormick and S18 OL Rubbe over S15 LB Bode and S18 CB Rector
Orange County: 6/7, 4/5 excluding GMs
I had S15 LB Grievous over S20 DE Boucher
Philly: 5/7, 4/6 excluding GMs
I had S15 S D'Attoria V and S15 S McKinnie over S18 LB Howyanow and FA pass (which I believe was for S15 CB Emoji - not sure if the timing works out such that Emoji is unprotected instead). Avon's attempted $30m S23 extension was also vetoed by HO which I figured was the most likely outcome of that situation but still ended up with no protection.
San Jose: 6/7, 6/6 excluding GMs
I had S12 S Staley over S19 RB Tyerucker and didn't have Tyerucker as the most likely protection pick if Staley did retire.
Yellowknife: 7/9, 6/8 excluding GMs
I had S14 QB Bigsby over FA pass and I also had S13 WR Swift as an FA pass. Looking at the big YKW FA post it looks like one of those was actually for S10 S Grithead and they mention removing Swift. So, I'm going to count my pick of Swift as a miss even though it would have been an FA pass on the actual paperwork.
Overall: 59/73 (80.82%), 46/59 (77.97%) excluding GMs
I feel pretty good about my picks coming out of this. It looks like the biggest patterns was slightly overvaluing S15 players in the context of thinking they were important to the teams trying to win an Ulti next year. I guess either they're trying to keep the future in mind more or they think the S15 players are fairly safe from getting picked due to the expansion teams not wanting to only get 1-3 years of a player. There were also a couple specific players I took a game on, eg not protecting Austin's S20 S Sexjoke or Baltimore's S18 DE Baldari. One of those ended up being right while the other didn't, and I think I hit at a decent rate for most of my gambles. A couple retirements I wasn't quite expecting also led to some natural incorrect picks and I'm assuming the teams knew about those from internal discussions.
Real Ultimate Power Protection List Mock
To simplify things, I'm going to synthesize a draft pool by taking the top players from each team directly rather than in full draft order and then drafting out of the top 27 players. Given what I've learned from the protection lists, I'm going to lean towards younger active players as the top selection options.

1. S18 RB Ruff - the only unprotected players are from S15, FAs, inactive, or have been cut from the team. So, go for a decent RB you'll be able to use for a couple years. Protect - S15 CB Knight on the basis of him being active
2. S15 TE Irving - inactive, but every other option is some flavor of FA
No valid third pick

1. S20 WR Clay - younger player who's active on the site but hasn't updated in a few week. Protect - S16 TE Larson since despite fewer updates, looks to be somewhat active and offensively important after losing a WR
2. S20 CB Moreno - younger player a team will hope to lure back into activity. Protect - S15 WR Tidwell over S17 S Okura who is apparently coming to the site but is not earning at a high rate. Tidwell is at over 1k TPE and I think the team locks down the key offensive player over the third safety.
3. S17 S Okura - figure one of the expansion teams takes a chance.

1. (GM pick)
2. S18 DE Baldari - the player who specifically wants to go to an expansion team is a windmill slam dunk hole-in-one option to go first. Protect - S15 DE Taffy who, despite looking fairly inactive, seems like a good option to protect after losing the top DE on the team.
3. S14 LB Bakshi - I see only 2 non-retiring options left between S15 LB Nikka and S14 LB Bakshi. I figure the pick is the older player on the basis of both being inactive and Bakshi having more TPE. Probably a 50/50 overall

1. S19 S Beat - active but low TPE. Still, seems like a good choice to me. Protection - S18 LB Hockhuertz who seems to be around.
2. S19 DE Vassallo - basically a choice between Vassallo and 1 season of S15 RB Leaf Jr. and I assume the expansion teams will want more years even if it's for an inactive. Protection - S15 RB Leaf Jr.
3. S18 DT Bacon - low TPE DT over S18 K/P Espinosa.

1. S20 S Kirkby - prefer the younger player over S16 WR Forty-Two. Protection - S16 WR Forty-Two over S20 K/P Banana.
2. S20 K/P Banana - take the active younger player over some less active older options. Protection - S18 DE Ocewilder as a more active player over S18 RB Vincent and a younger player over S15 LB Gabagool.
3. S18 RB Vincent - has been active fairly recently, might be able to be lured back over the entering-regression but active S15 LB Gabagool.

1. S19 TE McCormick - very high earner, young, active so what's not to like? Protection - hard choices abound for NOLA but I'm going to dartboard S19 WR Podolak as the only active WR on their roster and having just lost a TE. Top other options include S19 LB Arianlacher as an active and younger defender. I'm thinking they won't protect S18 OL Rubbe since OL is potentially a luxury position for the expansion teams, and I'm thinking S18 CB Adams is also passed for now due to being older. Really, very little confidence in my expectations here.
2. S19 LB Arianlacher - active, decent earner, and a season younger than the other top options. Protect - S18 CB Adams over the OL or older options.
3. S17 CB Andrews - Rubbe is a really strong option at a season younger and a higher TPE but I don't know if the expansion teams will be willing to get an O-lineman when they will need CBs. If one or both of the teams is convinced about the humans over bots for tackle article series, Rubbe seems the more likely pick. I just don't know.

1. S17 WR Banks II - high earning active player getting the edge. Protect - S15 K/P Dasistwcopyandpastehisname as an active player over the not updating S15 LB Grievous.
2. S19 DE Lazer-Eyes - take a younger player who hasn't been updating at a thinner position and hope he can be lured back to the site (but I wouldn't be shocked if it's Grievous instead if the GMs spoke to the player). Protect - S15 LB Grievous who, even if not updating, is a pretty good part of the defense.
3. S16 LB Storm - another 'not updating but has been to the site' option and at a season younger than S15 RB Bigby I think this pick makes sense.

1. S20 LB Stephens - seems close to be between Stephens and the older S19 TE Blocksdale Jr. but I'll err on the side of youth. Protect - S19 TE Blocksdale Jr. as an active and now not encumbered by contract option.
2. S20 K/P Powers - picking the high earning active player even in a less-needed position. Protect - S18 DE Franchet as a lower TPE but recently returned to the site option.
3. S18 RB Dotson - hasn't updated in a while but neither have the other options. 541 TPE as an RB seems solid over S18 WR Dropson with 456.

1. S18 S Wozniak - with no really active options, go for a younger one with higher TPE. Protect - S18 CB Beck as not far behind Wozniak on the TPE side.
2. S18 S Grimnir - not likely to help much for the expansion teams, but it's pretty much Grimnir or the well into regression S12 DT Riposte. Protect - Riposte over some sub-200 TPE options.
3. S17 K/P Bobby - not really any good options left.

1. (GM pick)
2. (GM pick)
3. S20 TE Gragg - other options either have less TPE or are in/approaching regression.
Mock V2
Brief reminder:


R1 P1 -

S19 TE Austin McCormick
With a focus on youth, I think the top two picks to consider are S19 TE McCormick and S18 DE Baldari. McCormick's younger and a higher earner so on paper seems like a more interesting option, especially with the possibility that Baldari wants to be reunited with his teammate Havran.
R1 P2 -

S18 DE Fabricio Baldari
Baldari is the top DE on the board and a former teammate of Havran, so I expect this to happen unless Baldari doesn't like the weather in Hawaii.
R2 P1 -

S17 CB Jordan Andrews
Going for a decent earning active CB with only 2 available.
R2 P2 -

S20 LB Warren Stephens
Continuing the youth theme, the Sailfish get an active member of the defense.
R3 P1 -

S20 S Thor Kirkby
Doubling down on the active defense plan Sarasots takes another S20 player.
R3 P2 -

S19 LB Mack Arianlacher
The more western of the two fish take the other active LB next to get some defense going.
R4 P1 -

S17 WR Dexter Banks II
The only other actively updating offense player and a good target for the veteran QB.
R4 P2 -

S19 S Beat
Take another active defender on the younger side.
R5 P1 -

S19 DE Gary Lazer-Eyes
Lazer-Eyes hasn't updated for a couple weeks but has been around, so make the pick and hope to lure the user back into updating.
R5 P2 -

S17 S Takeda Okura
Okura missed the last 2 updates, but had been around and is the most recently updating non-kicker.
R6 P1 -

S20 WR Jacoby Clay
Clay also hasn't updated in a couple weeks but also has been returning to the site. Still, take the young option to go with Banks II.
R6 P2 -

S20 CB Victor Moreno
With updates in March, Moreno isn't 100% inactive, but with no visits since 3/25 hope might be low. Still, grabbing the other available CB and most active of the remaining secondary options seems decent.
R7 P1 -

S20 K/P Venus Powers
A good kicker and an active forum user. With no TPE claims since 3/21, I'd say there's a better than even chance that Powers isn't updating due to a lack of marginal ROI on spent TPE slash to keep contract costs down. So, seems like a good pick.
R7 P2 -

S20 K/P Silver Banana
Banana is the other remaining active updater and I figure gets taken here so that Sarasota doesn't try to talk one of the two kickers into a position switch despite the lower TPE.
R8 P1 -

S18 RB Fuzzy Dotson
Take the highest TPE of the 3 S18 RBs. Dotson does have a player option for S22 and S23 so I could see grabbing Ruff instead if they're concerned about the player returning and opting out.
R8 P2 -

S16 LB Jaylen Storm
Hasn't updated in some time but still visits the site. And if completely inactive, at over 500TPE that's not terrible.
R9 P1 -

S19 DE Stevie Vassallo
Youngest option left on the board and a 300 TPE DE is serviceable.
R9 P2 -

S18 S Joseph Wozniak
Highst TPE of remainling defenders outside of in-regression Bakshi.
R10 P1 -

S18 RB Ruff Ruff
In an amusing coincidence, Ruff gets picked at the same spot as my previous mock. Highest TPE of remaining players outside of TE Irving.
R10 P2 -

S18 RB Michael Vincent
Despite GM Frost at RB, Vincent is the highest TPE not in regression by a lot.
R11 P1 -

S15 TE Jammerson Irving
Irving will be in a first year of regression, but I think a 640 TPE TE will be more useful than a sub-200 TPE defender. I could see getting 2 (or 3 if drafts don't go as hoped) years of play from Irving.
R11 P2 -

S18 S Oswald Grimnir
With 4 remaining inactive options where 1 is an S14 LB, 1 is a 128 TPE kicker, and the other 2 are younger DBs I think they take the DB.
R12 P1 -

S18 DT Trae Bacon
See also: previous pick text.
R12 P2 -

S14 LB Sandip "Sandy" Bakshi
Bakshi isn't likely to start but seems likely to be a more useful option to have on the team than a second kicker at 128 TPE.
Conclusion
As I said above, I think my first mock draft undervalued youth. It's entirely possible that this one is going to overvalue it and the actual GMs will take a more balanced approach. I do think that the simplified protection approach actually led to a reasonable draft pool. I don't have high confidence it's going to match what actually happened since I figure the existing GMs will be doing protections based more on who is getting taken (and I extra don't have much confidence in NOLA's protection choices). Still, with most eyes looking now towards the S22 NSFL draft I figured it would be interesting to remind people that the expansion draft is also important (and maybe more so!) when it comes to shaping the next couple years of the league. The expansion GMs will also have to be considering things like cap space, remaining years on contract, actual conversations with the players, etc. to help shape their teams into a competitor. I actually don't know if the GMs are allowed to talk to the users but I assume so. If not, that will make their jobs even harder, I assume.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing the expansion stream in less than 48 hours.
![[Image: JYi8HmG.png]](https://i.imgur.com/JYi8HmG.png)
Draft Steal (retired S35 CB) - Profile/Update | Wiki
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