For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:
The beginning of S22 is fast approaching so, with the week one fixtures in hand I have fed them into my Elo ranking spreadsheet and we will take a look at the predictions it has come out with.
Since Hahalua and Sailfish are brand new teams they have been given the starting Elo of 1500. I wouldn't be overly surprised if this was a touch high due to them being expansion teams and the teething issues that entails. Of course, I am happy to be proven wrong here. None-the-less, I have awarded them the inital rank of 1500 because the entire point in this Elo system is to remove biases, including my own.
Lets go down them in order of win probability.
SaberCats @ Second Line 
Second Line are coming into week 1 as Ultimus Champions and the league highest Elo with a score of 1659.78. SaberCats, on the other hand, finished last season 4-9 and start S22 with a second bottom Elo rank of 1401.51. This Elo difference of 258.27 is the largest between to week one teams. Not only that, Second Line has home field advantage which, as previously discussed in my article on that topic, is a measurable advantage in the NSFL.
Thus, with all things considered, Second Line are the favourites with odds to win of 86.54%% and a predicted points differential of +13.0 points.
Hahalua @ Otters 
Although Otters didn't make the Ultimus (losing out to Second Line in the Semi finals) they still finished the season with a higher Elo ranking than the Wraiths due to their stronger showing throughout S21 itself. In fact, at the end of regular season, Otters were 1st ranked in Elo and favourites to win that semi final round.
They enter S22 with the second highest Elo ranking at 1,590.87. Hahalua, as an expansion team, enters with a score of 1500. As such, the Elo difference between these two teams is 90.87, climbing once again after the Otters home field advantage is considered.
These figures give Otters a predicted chance of winning of 71.04% and a predicted points differential of +6.0 points.
Sailfish @ Hawks 
A not too different situation for the Sailfish as their expansion team brethren here. Hawks enter S22 ranked 4th Elo with a score of 1,550.94. Again, their home field advantage is what gives them the boost here over the Sailfish giving them a chance to win of 66.09% and a predicted points differential of +4.5 points.
Butchers @ Liberty 
Butchers and Liberty are both coming into the season with below average Elo scores of 1418.00 for the Butchers and 1376.44 for Liberty. These rank the two teams as 9th and 12th overall respectively. None-the-less, we anticipate a close game here. The home field advantage of Liberty gives them a small edge, enough for a 53.37% chance of victory and a predicted points differential of +1.0.
Copperheads @ Outlaws 
Copperheads coming into S22 with a marginally lower than average Elo score of 1,498.48, good enough for 8th place behind the two expansion teams. This compares to the Outlaws at 10th place with an Elo of 1,414.53. Once we factor in the Outlaws home field advantage, Copperheads end up with a 52.72% chance of victory and a +1.0 predicted points differential.
Wraiths @ Yeti 
Wraiths enter S22 with the third highest Elo in the NSFL at 1,556.42 compared with fifth ranked Yeti at 1,500.10. Yeti have the home field advantage so it's a tough one to call. Stats say that Yeti will be the victors here although the margin is slim, only 51.25% chance of taking the W. Slim enough odds that the predicted points differential is just +0.5.
Summary
@ = 86.54%
@ = 71.04%
@ = 66.09%
@ = 53.37%
@ = 52.72%
@ = 51.25%
Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~66% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Since Hahalua and Sailfish are brand new teams they have been given the starting Elo of 1500. I wouldn't be overly surprised if this was a touch high due to them being expansion teams and the teething issues that entails. Of course, I am happy to be proven wrong here. None-the-less, I have awarded them the inital rank of 1500 because the entire point in this Elo system is to remove biases, including my own.
Lets go down them in order of win probability.
SaberCats @ Second Line Second Line are coming into week 1 as Ultimus Champions and the league highest Elo with a score of 1659.78. SaberCats, on the other hand, finished last season 4-9 and start S22 with a second bottom Elo rank of 1401.51. This Elo difference of 258.27 is the largest between to week one teams. Not only that, Second Line has home field advantage which, as previously discussed in my article on that topic, is a measurable advantage in the NSFL.
Thus, with all things considered, Second Line are the favourites with odds to win of 86.54%% and a predicted points differential of +13.0 points.
Hahalua @ Otters Although Otters didn't make the Ultimus (losing out to Second Line in the Semi finals) they still finished the season with a higher Elo ranking than the Wraiths due to their stronger showing throughout S21 itself. In fact, at the end of regular season, Otters were 1st ranked in Elo and favourites to win that semi final round.
They enter S22 with the second highest Elo ranking at 1,590.87. Hahalua, as an expansion team, enters with a score of 1500. As such, the Elo difference between these two teams is 90.87, climbing once again after the Otters home field advantage is considered.
These figures give Otters a predicted chance of winning of 71.04% and a predicted points differential of +6.0 points.
Sailfish @ Hawks A not too different situation for the Sailfish as their expansion team brethren here. Hawks enter S22 ranked 4th Elo with a score of 1,550.94. Again, their home field advantage is what gives them the boost here over the Sailfish giving them a chance to win of 66.09% and a predicted points differential of +4.5 points.
Butchers @ Liberty Butchers and Liberty are both coming into the season with below average Elo scores of 1418.00 for the Butchers and 1376.44 for Liberty. These rank the two teams as 9th and 12th overall respectively. None-the-less, we anticipate a close game here. The home field advantage of Liberty gives them a small edge, enough for a 53.37% chance of victory and a predicted points differential of +1.0.
Copperheads @ Outlaws Copperheads coming into S22 with a marginally lower than average Elo score of 1,498.48, good enough for 8th place behind the two expansion teams. This compares to the Outlaws at 10th place with an Elo of 1,414.53. Once we factor in the Outlaws home field advantage, Copperheads end up with a 52.72% chance of victory and a +1.0 predicted points differential.
Wraiths @ Yeti Wraiths enter S22 with the third highest Elo in the NSFL at 1,556.42 compared with fifth ranked Yeti at 1,500.10. Yeti have the home field advantage so it's a tough one to call. Stats say that Yeti will be the victors here although the margin is slim, only 51.25% chance of taking the W. Slim enough odds that the predicted points differential is just +0.5.
Summary
@ = 86.54% @ = 71.04% @ = 66.09% @ = 53.37% @ = 52.72% @ = 51.25%Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~66% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Hamish MacAndrew #20 - Safety - Austin Copperheads - [Player Profile - Update Thread - Wiki page - Twitter]
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