*Predicting S22 Week 3 using Elo

[IthicaHawk]

For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:

• 1 Elo ranking NSFL teams
• 2 Home Field Advantage - An Analysis

For previous weeks see here:

• Week 1
• Week 2

With week 2 complete, we saw our Elo based prediction accuracy rise from 75% in week 1 to 83.33% in week two, correctly predicting all but one game. The Otters win over top ranked Second Line was not foretold by the mystical sheets and causes some interesting movement in the weekly tables.

The biggest Elo win came from the Wraiths who gained 56.43 points after defeating the Sailfish 44-3, despite Sailfish actually having a marginally higher Elo ranking. Sailfish takes an equally signicant tumble, dropping 55.71 points. Silver lining for the Sailfish is that it wasn't the biggest drop of the week, that honour goes to the Butchers who drop 57.17 points thanks to a signficant defeat at home at the hands of the Hawks.

A lot of movement this week, only Liberty remained in the same position as last week. Meanwhile at the top of the table, first and second traded places as did third and fourth. The Sailfish have dropped out the top 6 but have been replaced by fellow expansion team, Hahalua. At the bottom, SaberCats managed to claw themselves out of bottom place and up to 10th with their victory over the Outlaws. Butchers second significant loss now places them firmly at the bottom of the table with and 82.47 point difference between last and second-to-last place.

The weekly rankings are as follows:
1(+1) - 1,663.83
2(-1) - 1,654.49
3(+1) - 1,576.56
4(-1) - 1,568.13
5(+1) - 1,566.99
6(+2) - 1,502.73
7(-2) - 1,469.01
8(-1) - 1,459.53
9(=) - 1,411.64
10(+2) - 1,389.91
11(-1) - 1,388.28
12(-1) - 1,305.81

Week 3

Outlaws @ Second Line
Former top ranked Second Line should have an easy chance to reclaim the top spot this week with a predicted 87.06% chance of taking the W in week 3. Not only are they at home, this game has the biggest Elo differential so far this season with 266.21 points seperating the two teams. As such, we're predicting that, not only will Second Line take the W, they'll do it by at least two touchdowns.

Butchers @ Wraiths
A somewhat similar situation here for the Wraiths as above, the stronger team is at home and an almost as large Elo difference of 261.19. Combined, this sees Wraiths with a 86.73% chance to win and a likely points differential of +13.0 points. Butchers are in a tough spot this week, another significant loss could see them drop below their Elo score of 1271.57 from S20Wk8, the lowest recorded Elo since these stats begin (S18).

Liberty @ Hawks
Both teams here are 1-1 and hunting for that second win, however it's likely going to be Hawks that take it with a 78.98% chance of winning. They're statistically the better team, despite matching records, and have that important Home Field Advantage to help them. Predicted Points Differential of 9.0 points.

Sailfish @ Yeti
A chance for the Sailfish to reclaim the title of 'highest ranked expansion team in Ithica Hawks Elo based system' this week but it is a slim one. Yeti have a 72.01% chance of taking this one by at least 6.5 points.

Otters @ Copperheads
Top ranked Otters are away this week and hope to hold onto their top spot in the tables with a W. They're less likely than Second Line though with a 69.04% chance. Still, nothing to sneer at. With only 9.34 points between first and second place, the battle for the top spot could come down to who can run up biggest winning margin between Otters and Second Line.

Hahalua @ SaberCats
This weeks please no tie game is not quite as evenly matched as previous weeks but with a slim 56.84% chance to go 2-1, the Hahalua will need to perform if they want to continue to climb through the top six. A win here and a loss for the Wraiths could see them squeeze into the top 5, maybe even top 4 if Yeti struggle too.

Summary
Compared with last week, a lot more 'certain' predictions as we see teams from either end of the table face off across the league.

@ = 87.06%
@ = 86.73%
@ = 78.98%
@ = 72.01%
@ = 69.04%
@ = 56.84%

Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~66% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.

[IthicaHawk]

Note: After a brief discussion with @Exilizer I noticed that I wasn't taking the absolute value of Elo differential when calculating the multiplier. The code for that factor was 2.2/2.2 + (elo diff/1000).

One side of the match up would be + and the other -. This had the effect of making the value every so slightly different. e.g. for +/- 100 you got 0.96 and 1.04.

I have now adjusted this and taken it back to the beginning of the season. Luckily it is so minor the table is unchanged and the %s are only slightly different (less than 0.5% on average) so I won't rewrite this week.

You can see, in the Wk2 results that wraiths gained 56.43 while sailfish lost 55.71. These should be equal.

[Raven]

Not to ruin the odds, but we're playing @ SJS week

[Opera_Phantom]

Week 3

Outlaws @ Second Line
Former top ranked Second Line should have an easy chance to reclaim the top spot this week with a predicted 87.06% chance of taking the W in week 3. Not only are they at home, this game has the biggest Elo differential so far this season with 266.21 points seperating the two teams. As such, we're predicting that, not only will Second Line take the W, they'll do it by at least two touchdowns.

Man, Outlaws always with the records, best team ever

[IthicaHawk]

Not to ruin the odds, but we're playing @ SJS week

The good news is I had everything down correctly on my sheet and just made the error writing the post itself. The odds remain unchanged.

[Raven]

The good news is I had everything down correctly on my sheet and just made the error writing the post itself. The odds remain unchanged.

Poggers

[retrospace111]

Man, Outlaws always with the records, best team ever