*S23 - Elo rankings and week 1

[IthicaHawk]

For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:

• 1 Elo ranking NSFL teams
• 2 Home Field Advantage - An Analysis
• 3 NSFL Scorigami

For additional stat based content see here:

• The greatest team in the history of the NSFL, A video report

Previous Elo reports
Season 22 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3 - Wk4 - Wk5 - Wk6 - Wk8 - Wk9 - Wk10 - Wk12 - Wk13 - S22 Review
Season 23 -

Welcome to Season 23 and the start of my Elo reports for the forthcoming season. Last season we saw some exciting matchups and some big upsets.

Here's a quick look back at some of my favourite charts before we move onto the new season.

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[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Figure 1. All teams S22 weekly Elo position rankings[/div]

This chart shows the weekly ranking position of each team throughout the season. We can see the Yeti rising at the start of the season with their great first half of S22 before slumping down to 6th at the tail end. It didn't matter in the end of course because they managed to claw their way through the playoffs to win the Ultimus and become S22 champions. How will the longer seasons effect them though? If S22 had been 16 games, would they have continued to drop, potentially opening the door for another team to take that position? Who knows.

The meteoric rise of the Copperheads is also clearly visible, going from 11th place in week 6 up to 2nd place by week 12. It will be interesting to see what they do this season.

The flatline of the S22 Butchers crawling along the bottom was a consistant feature of last season, will we see them start to work their way back up the tables in S23? They've got a fair deficit to cover to get into competition but the team is moving into year 2 of a full rebuild and should be interesting to watch for sure.

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[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Figure 2. Hahalua vs Sailfish throughout the season[/div]

I also particularly enjoyed the battle between the two expansion teams, the Sailfish and the Hahalua throughout the seaon. They kept getting within licking range of each other until Sailfish pipped them right at the end of the season.

But, without further delay, lets look at the rankings going into week 1 of Season 23. I normalise each team 1/3 towards the starting Elo of 1500 points to account for off-season movements. That is to say, if a team has an Elo of 1800 they would drop to 1700 (1800-1500 = 300. 300/3 = 100. 1800-100 = 1700) and if a team had an Elo of 1410 they would rise to 1440 (1410-1500 = -90. -90/3 = -30. 1410 - (-30) = 1440).

The rankings going into S23 week 1 are as follows:

1(=) 1,631.41
2(=) 1,625.54
3(=) 1,609.72
4(=) 1,575.57
5(=) 1,549.18
6(=) 1,535.50
7(=) 1,467.72
8(=) 1,446.94
9(=) 1,425.59
10(=) 1,425.53
11(=) 1,425.34
12(=) 1,284.17

We can see that Otters, Wraiths and Copperheads hold a strong grasp of 1/2/3 positions respectively. Only 6 points seperate Otters and Wraiths and Copperheads are just 16 behind. Yeti, despite wining the Ultimus are sitting in 4th overall, 35 behind the Copperheads. They got a bump for winning the Ultimus but, since it was a winning margin of just 1 point, it was a small bump of only 23.28 points. Enough to clear them over the Second Line in 5th.
SaberCats held onto a solid 6th place and are the last team above the 'average line' of 1500.

Looking at the lower half of the roster, Sailfish are leading the charge followed closely by Liberty. Both are striking distance from 1500 in the first week or so. Then we have a bit of an strange occurance, three teams within 1 point of each other. Outlaws, Hawks and Hahalua are basically in a dead heat for 9th place. Finally, there is a large void of open space and we reach the Butchers who start at the very base of the hill and are currently lacing up their climbing boots.

Week 1

@
Top challenger Copperheads host 11th place Hahalua in their opening matchup. Not a great matchup for Hahalua who will be looking to fend off the others in that 1 point grouping. A win here over the Copperheads would give them a chunky boost and could see them clearing that pack quite easily. However, Copperheads are a tough opponent so we give then 80.78% chance of taking the W over Hahalua.

@
The Ding Dongs travel to the defending Ultimus champs. Despite being 4th ranked, Yeti will still be a tough opponent for Liberty. A fall here could see them being overtaken by the trio of 9/10/11 if they're not careful. Yeti to win 75.30%.

@
Top ranked Otters are on the road in Arizona to face 9th place Outlaws. This is a very tough matchup for the Outlaws but they do have the home field advantage on their side to help them. Similar to Hahalua, if the Outlaws take a W this week they could jump quite far in the rankings. Otters losing would cause a big tumble so they'll look to avoid that or they'll have to climb back up throughout the season. Otters to take this 69.23%.

@
This is almost exactly the same position for the Hawks as the Outlaws and the Hahalua are in. Hawks, like Outlaws have the home field advantage. Wraiths, like Otters have a lot to lose and want to hold onto that top spot. Not much more to say. These games are very similar and end up with a similar chance to win for the top teams. In this case, Wraiths to take it 68.51%.

@
First chance for the Butchers to show they can climb this season as they take on midranked Sailfish. A strong win here would see them cut that deficit by a decent amount and put them within reaching range of 'not bottom'. With 66.43% chance that Sailfish take the win here, Butchers are the 2nd highest underdog chance of the week. So there's that.

@
And this one is the highest underdog chance. Both teams are pretty close to each other, Second Line have a 15 point lead over the SaberCats but the SaberCats are sorta hot right now after their early performance last season. Can they repeat that? Home field advantage gives them the slight edge this week and a chance to start off S23 strong. SaberCats to win 57.33%.

Summary

@ = 80.78%
@ = 75.30%
@ = 69.23%
@ = 68.51%
@ = 66.43%
@ = 57.33%