*ISFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities - WK 14

[Cody]

Wow, what a crazy Week 14 in the ISFL. There were a lot of surprises and a lot of great close games this week. The standings changed up a little bit and team's playoffs chances moved quite a bit. 

Here's a look at the current standings after Week 14:

NSFC

Colorad Yeti: 12-2
Sarasoata Sailfish: 10-4
Chicago Butchers: 6-8
Yellowknife Wraiths: 6-8
Baltimore Hawks: 3-11
Philadelphia Liberty: 3-11

ASFC

New Orleans Second Line: 8-6
Orange County Otters: 8-6
Honolulu Hahalua: 8-6
Arizona Outlaws: 8-6
San Jose SaberCats: 7-7
Austin Copperheads: 6-8

Here is a look at the team results after running numerous simulations and a broad overview of each conference:

Week 13's total will be in parentheses. 

NSFC

  Colorado Yeti | Current Record: 12-2 (11-2) | Playoff Probability: 100% (100%) | Average Number of Wins: 13.5 (12.7)

Sarasota Sailfish | Current Record: 10-4 (10-3)| Playoff Probability: 100% (100%)| Average Number of Wins: 11.25 (12.2)

Chicago Butchers | Current Record: 6-8 (5-8) | Playoff Probability: 15% (50%) | Average Number of Wins: 6.55 (5.9)

Yellowknife Wraiths | Current Record: 5-9  (5-8)| Playoff Probability: 55% (50%) | Average Number of Wins: 6.15 (7)

Baltimore Hawks | Current Record: 3-11 (3-10) | Playoff Probability: 0% (0%) | Average Number of Wins: 3.5 (4)

  Philadelphia Liberty | Current Record: 3-11 (3-11) | Playoff Probability: 0% (0%) | Average Number of Wins: 4 (3.6)

My Take

Colorado has a lock on hosting the Conference Championship game in the NSFC with a dominating win over Sarasota. Chicago saw a HUGE jump in their playoff probability going from 15% to 50% to be even with Yellowknife. The simulation really seems to like Yellowknife even though they are a game back. My guess is they both go 1-1 down the stretch and Chicago locks up the last spot. Yellowknife saw an early season lead for the 3rd playoff spot vanish after losing 5 games straight. 

ASFC

New Orleans Second Line | Current Record: 8-6 (8-5) | Playoff Probability: 65% (65%) | Average Number of Wins: 9 (9.2)

Orange County Otters | Current Record: 8-6 (8-5)| Playoff Probability: 80% (95%) | Average Number of Wins: 8.95 (9.7)

Honolulu Hahalua | Current Record: 8-6 (7-6) | Playoff Probability: 65% (55%) | Average Number of Wins: 9.05 (8.6)

Arizona Outlaws | Current Record: 8-6 (7-6)| Playoff Probability: 75% (55%) | Average Number of Wins: 9.1 (8.6)

San Jose SaberCats | Current Record: 7-6 (7-7) | Playoff Probability: 15% (30%) | Average Number of Wins: 7.95 (8.2)

Austin Copperheads | Current Record: 6-8 (5-8) | Playoff Probability: 0% (0%) | Average Number of Wins: 6.95 (6.9)


My Take

Things got shaken up quite a bit in the AFSC as now we have 4 teams with the exact same record of 8-6, New Orleans, Orange County, Honolulu and Arizona. The biggest jump we saw was Arizona going up 20% from 55% to 75%. On the other side Orange County and San Jose both saw their chances drop by 15% but Orange County still has an 80% chance of making the playoffs. It's going to be an interesting finish in this conference!

[Pat]

Man the last two weeks are going to be so fun in the ASFC. That many teams with that close of records = craziness.