*How can Colorado make the playoffs?

infinitempg · (This post was last modified: 01-02-2021, 09:30 AM by Asked Madden.)

Colorado has taken a step back this year, but even with a terrible road performance and key losses against Sarasota and Chicago (who are ahead of them in the standings), the Yeti still have a not-totally-unlikely shot at making the playoffs.

The Situation

The Yeti currently sit in 4th place in the NSFC at 7-7, not a bad record all things considered. However, Sarasota and Chicago both have head to head tiebreakers over Colorado, and both sit just above them in the standings at 8-6. Therefore, the only way for the Yeti to be in the top 3 of the standings and advance to the postseason is:

Colorado must WIN versus Yellowknife (W15) and at Philadelphia (W16) AND
One of the following must occur:
- Chicago must LOSE versus New York (W15) and at Baltimore (W16) OR
- Sarasota must LOSE versus Baltimore (W15) and at Yellowknife (W16)

This would put the Yeti at 9 wins and either Chicago or Sarasota at 8, allowing the Yeti to leapfrog their rivals in the standings. Any other combination of results means that Colorado is either out on tiebreaker (0-2 versus Sarasota and 0-2 versus Chicago) or by record.

Well, what are the odds?

It's been a while since I exercised my sim testing muscles, and in an attempt to not strain them too hard, I went and simmed each of these 6 games 100 times. I know that this doesn't create a super robust result and that there is high uncertainty, but given the fact that it's not totally likely to happen, I figured 100 exhibition matches is probably good enough to give us a decent picture. The six games simmed are the ones listed above, as they are the only ones important to this scenario.

Here are the results, with lines and percentages:

WEEK 15:

COL (-5.5) v YKW; Colorado has a 68% chance of winning
CHI (-5.0) v NYS; Chicago has a 62% chance of winning
SAR (-10.0) v BAL; Sarasota has a 73% chance of winning

WEEK 16:

PHI (-2.0) v COL; Colorado has a 50% chance of winning
BAL (-2.5) v CHI; Chicago has a 45% chance of winning
YKW (-5.0) v SAR; Sarasota has a 41% chance of winning

The Yeti's hopes of sneaking into the playoffs really rest in Week 15 - not only are they easily eliminated by a loss, but if both Sarasota and Chicago win their (very-winnable) games, the NSFC playoff picture closes. Yellowknife is arguably the best team in the league, and even with home field advantage the odds are not the best that the Yeti make it out with a victory. Chicago plays cross conference against a surging New York team that themselves is looking to jump from 4th place into a playoff spot in the wide open ASFC, and they have the lowest chance of winning of the three teams we are looking at. Finally, Sarasota play Baltimore in probably the most likely game to go against the Yeti. Colorado have only a 44% chance of leaving Friday night's games still alive.

Should they make it through Week 15, the odds get a little bit brighter. Colorado travels to Philadelphia for a coin-toss game, and they won their previous match up in Week 5 by 11 points. Chicago travels to Baltimore, a team fresh off of smacking the Yeti by 17 and a team the Butchers only beat by 6 in Week 1. Finally, Sarasota go up against conference leaders Yellowknife, a team that looks very difficult to beat and beat the Sailfish in Florida by 20 in Week 7. While the odds here aren't incredible for the Yeti, there certainly is a decent chance things go their way in this week.

That brings me to the CHART OF DESTINY or whatever - the below image shows every single combination of game results (outside of Yellowknife beating Colorado, because that ends the road for the Yeti and sets the playoffs), the corresponding standings, and the odds of each happening.

You might need to click on this link to see the full size Smile

While the most likely outcomes involve Sarasota and Chicago advancing (obviously), there is about an 11% chance that the Yeti actually leap frog one of the teams! Each of those scenarios involve either Sarasota or Chicago dropping both games and falling to 8-8, while the Yeti move on at 9-7. Of note is the one dream scenario for Colorado where they actually advance as the 2 seed with both Chicago and Sarasota losing out - this has a 1% chance of happening.

Even with all these scenarios, Sarasota and Chicago both remain extremely likely to advance, with both having odds surpassing 90%. All they have to do is do their jobs and hope that the juggernaut that is the Wraiths can do theirs.

I'm like 200 words short of double media, which makes me sad, but maybe the extra sim work will help pick up some money. wink wink nudge nudge