A few weeks ago we analyzed the performance of Fantasy Football in the NSFL with stats through week 10. With the regular season in the books and the stats now 100% finalized it is time to another look at how different teams, players, positions, and owners performed throughout the season.
Last time we asked: What draftees are found most commonly on teams that are winning their groups? In an attempt to understand if winners were being carried by big name first round picks like the Arizona Defense or Reg Mackworthy, or if they slipped into the lead with smart mid-round draftees like Leclair or Shane Weston. Last time we found that there was a good mix of both, some people were winning with big names, some with smart value picks.
In the final standings we have:
8 appearances (50%) on #1 teams:
Charlie Law
Arizona D/ST
6 appearances (37.5%) on #1 teams:
Philadelphia DST
Shane Weston
5 appearances (31.3%) on #1 teams:
Josh Garden
Ardie Savea
Bradley Westfield
Trey Willie
George Wright Jr.
So we again have a good mix of early round powerhouses like Arizona or Josh Garden mixed with some mid to late round steals like Charlie Law, Philly D, Shane Weston. But I'd have to give the edge to the value picks here as I see quite a few steals.
We also looked at who appeared the most on last place teams. Last time Darlane Farlane and Omar Wright appeared a lot, but it wasn't a very convincing statistic. This time we have:
None. Of the last place teams 32% of the roster positions were not occupied by a single player. Meanwhile with 4 appearances (23%) on last place teams we have King Bronko, Darlane Farlane, and Leroy Jenkins. 3 upper round draft picks who did not perform up to expectations.
So what about players that weren't really drafted at all? We have:
Drafted to only 1 team among all 16 groups we have: Bubba Browning, Eric Kennedy, Connor Tanner, Wren Piper, Jaxson Tuck, and Samuel Zhang.
Drafted to 2 teams we have: Damien West, Gabriel Tenzini, and Jessie Sanderson.
Drafted to 3 teams we have: Nicholas Pierno, Sebastian Joyce, DJ Law, and Erlich Burnsman.
So how does this roll up? Who is the best? Who is the worst?
As of week 10 our best teams were: ErMurazor, Keyg_an, Adwyer87, sabills, timeconsumer, and automatic.
This time our best teams are:
@ErMurazor - 144.32 points (corruption)
@Keyg_an - 1425.82 points
@sabills - 1424.42 points
@timeconsumer - 1410.48 points
@automatic - 1406.96 points
These are the only teams to have ended the season averaging more than 100 points/game.
So, what about the worst teams? Well, again I would like to exclude teams that are missing players. So of the teams who have all roster sots filled the worst as of week 10 were Dangles13 and Luchalibre.
This time our worst teams are....the same!
Dangles13 - 965.4 points
Luchalibre - 967.7 points
Deusolis - 982.3 points
And let's analyze groups as well. Who has the easiest competition? Who has the hardest? The league average is 1145 points per team.
The most difficult group is group 14 with an average of 1220 points per team. Sabills is leading that group.
The second most difficult group is group 4 with an average of 1202 points per team. DrunkenTeddy is in the lead there.
The third most difficult group is group 5 with an average of 1196 points per team.
Now the easiest groups are:
Group 8 with 990 points per team.
Group 12 with 1031 points per team
Group 15 with 1035 points per team
Next up, who is the highest scoring Flex? Is it a WR, a RB? Which should you target next season? Last time we looked it was a mix of WRs and RBs with guys like Weston, Leclair, and Savea.
Top Flex for S3 -not counting players who were NOT drafted into a flex so no round 1 picks and not many round 2.
Shane Weston - 185 points
Bubba Nuck - 172 points
Alexandre Leclair - 158 points
Bailey Cook - 158 points
Ardie Savea - 155 points
Darlane Farlane - 152 points
So again, no real trend here. Just pick best player available.
Who is the worst flex? Last time we had Budda Browning, Matthew Vincent, and Eric Kennedy. This time, nothing has changed. They're still the worst.
So, on to defenses. Last time we noticed that Arizona was was significantly ahead of the rest of the pack an Colorado was significantly behind. Meanwhile everybody in the middle was very close together.
This time it's a similar story. Arizona is 2 standard deviations above the mean (hereby referred to as sigma) score for drafted defenses, well worth their round 1 price tag. After that everyone except for Colorado and Orange County are within 1 standard deviation from the mean. Orange County and Colorado brought up the bottom with -0.9 and -1.2, respectively.
QBs we find a similar story. But what happens when we remove the two lowest drafted QBs, Bercovici and Pierno from this? Then what happens?
Boss - 1.7 Sigma
Orosz - 0.42 Sigma
Bronko - 0.22 Sigma
Hunt - -0.1 Sigma
Kyubee - -0.82 Sigma
Rove - -1.4 Sigma
Now we can see some clear winners and losers. Boss is a winner, his variance from the rest of the pack is huge, while Rove proved to be a bad pick. Everyone else is pretty decent if you got them in the right round.
And moving to kickers, as of week 10 Ronaldo was a huge value pick. His variance compared to the position average made him a big winner. At the end of the season, that looks the same.
Ronaldo - 198 points - 1.6 Sigma
Sims - 142 Points - 0.6 Sigma
Blewitt - 127 Points - 0.3 Sigma
Turkleton - 127 Points - 0.3 Sigma
Harris - 119 Points - 0.2 Sigma
Booter - 91 Points - -0.4 Sigma
Kicksit - 77 Points - -0.6 Sigma
So again, Ronaldo proved to be a huge winner. But everyone else was pretty close together and showed no real value or bust picks.
Now on to skill positions. Did you go for a top tier wideout first? Did you target a RB? Did you choose best player available? How did that work out? On average Wide Receivers NOT starting in the flex scored 145 points while RBs not in the flex scored 154 points. So some of this could bea result of having to draft more wide receivers and getting lower value for #2.
The top overall skill position players are:
Bradley Westfield - 235 Points
Reg Mackworthy - 198 Points
Robert Phelps - 194 Points
Boss Tweed - 189 Points
Shane Weston - 185 Points
All of these players scored more than 1 standard deviation above the average for drafted skill players.
So, that's all for the S3 Fantasy breakdown. If you have anything you would like me to investigate deeper please tell me in the replies below.
Last time we asked: What draftees are found most commonly on teams that are winning their groups? In an attempt to understand if winners were being carried by big name first round picks like the Arizona Defense or Reg Mackworthy, or if they slipped into the lead with smart mid-round draftees like Leclair or Shane Weston. Last time we found that there was a good mix of both, some people were winning with big names, some with smart value picks.
In the final standings we have:
8 appearances (50%) on #1 teams:
Charlie Law
Arizona D/ST
6 appearances (37.5%) on #1 teams:
Philadelphia DST
Shane Weston
5 appearances (31.3%) on #1 teams:
Josh Garden
Ardie Savea
Bradley Westfield
Trey Willie
George Wright Jr.
So we again have a good mix of early round powerhouses like Arizona or Josh Garden mixed with some mid to late round steals like Charlie Law, Philly D, Shane Weston. But I'd have to give the edge to the value picks here as I see quite a few steals.
We also looked at who appeared the most on last place teams. Last time Darlane Farlane and Omar Wright appeared a lot, but it wasn't a very convincing statistic. This time we have:
None. Of the last place teams 32% of the roster positions were not occupied by a single player. Meanwhile with 4 appearances (23%) on last place teams we have King Bronko, Darlane Farlane, and Leroy Jenkins. 3 upper round draft picks who did not perform up to expectations.
So what about players that weren't really drafted at all? We have:
Drafted to only 1 team among all 16 groups we have: Bubba Browning, Eric Kennedy, Connor Tanner, Wren Piper, Jaxson Tuck, and Samuel Zhang.
Drafted to 2 teams we have: Damien West, Gabriel Tenzini, and Jessie Sanderson.
Drafted to 3 teams we have: Nicholas Pierno, Sebastian Joyce, DJ Law, and Erlich Burnsman.
So how does this roll up? Who is the best? Who is the worst?
As of week 10 our best teams were: ErMurazor, Keyg_an, Adwyer87, sabills, timeconsumer, and automatic.
This time our best teams are:
@ErMurazor - 144.32 points (corruption)
@Keyg_an - 1425.82 points
@sabills - 1424.42 points
@timeconsumer - 1410.48 points
@automatic - 1406.96 points
These are the only teams to have ended the season averaging more than 100 points/game.
So, what about the worst teams? Well, again I would like to exclude teams that are missing players. So of the teams who have all roster sots filled the worst as of week 10 were Dangles13 and Luchalibre.
This time our worst teams are....the same!
Dangles13 - 965.4 points
Luchalibre - 967.7 points
Deusolis - 982.3 points
And let's analyze groups as well. Who has the easiest competition? Who has the hardest? The league average is 1145 points per team.
The most difficult group is group 14 with an average of 1220 points per team. Sabills is leading that group.
The second most difficult group is group 4 with an average of 1202 points per team. DrunkenTeddy is in the lead there.
The third most difficult group is group 5 with an average of 1196 points per team.
Now the easiest groups are:
Group 8 with 990 points per team.
Group 12 with 1031 points per team
Group 15 with 1035 points per team
Next up, who is the highest scoring Flex? Is it a WR, a RB? Which should you target next season? Last time we looked it was a mix of WRs and RBs with guys like Weston, Leclair, and Savea.
Top Flex for S3 -not counting players who were NOT drafted into a flex so no round 1 picks and not many round 2.
Shane Weston - 185 points
Bubba Nuck - 172 points
Alexandre Leclair - 158 points
Bailey Cook - 158 points
Ardie Savea - 155 points
Darlane Farlane - 152 points
So again, no real trend here. Just pick best player available.
Who is the worst flex? Last time we had Budda Browning, Matthew Vincent, and Eric Kennedy. This time, nothing has changed. They're still the worst.
So, on to defenses. Last time we noticed that Arizona was was significantly ahead of the rest of the pack an Colorado was significantly behind. Meanwhile everybody in the middle was very close together.
This time it's a similar story. Arizona is 2 standard deviations above the mean (hereby referred to as sigma) score for drafted defenses, well worth their round 1 price tag. After that everyone except for Colorado and Orange County are within 1 standard deviation from the mean. Orange County and Colorado brought up the bottom with -0.9 and -1.2, respectively.
QBs we find a similar story. But what happens when we remove the two lowest drafted QBs, Bercovici and Pierno from this? Then what happens?
Boss - 1.7 Sigma
Orosz - 0.42 Sigma
Bronko - 0.22 Sigma
Hunt - -0.1 Sigma
Kyubee - -0.82 Sigma
Rove - -1.4 Sigma
Now we can see some clear winners and losers. Boss is a winner, his variance from the rest of the pack is huge, while Rove proved to be a bad pick. Everyone else is pretty decent if you got them in the right round.
And moving to kickers, as of week 10 Ronaldo was a huge value pick. His variance compared to the position average made him a big winner. At the end of the season, that looks the same.
Ronaldo - 198 points - 1.6 Sigma
Sims - 142 Points - 0.6 Sigma
Blewitt - 127 Points - 0.3 Sigma
Turkleton - 127 Points - 0.3 Sigma
Harris - 119 Points - 0.2 Sigma
Booter - 91 Points - -0.4 Sigma
Kicksit - 77 Points - -0.6 Sigma
So again, Ronaldo proved to be a huge winner. But everyone else was pretty close together and showed no real value or bust picks.
Now on to skill positions. Did you go for a top tier wideout first? Did you target a RB? Did you choose best player available? How did that work out? On average Wide Receivers NOT starting in the flex scored 145 points while RBs not in the flex scored 154 points. So some of this could bea result of having to draft more wide receivers and getting lower value for #2.
The top overall skill position players are:
Bradley Westfield - 235 Points
Reg Mackworthy - 198 Points
Robert Phelps - 194 Points
Boss Tweed - 189 Points
Shane Weston - 185 Points
All of these players scored more than 1 standard deviation above the average for drafted skill players.
So, that's all for the S3 Fantasy breakdown. If you have anything you would like me to investigate deeper please tell me in the replies below.
![[Image: XSfVUgo.png]](https://i.imgur.com/XSfVUgo.png)
Hank Winchester (S25 - Current) - Scrub
Angus Winchester (S1-S12) - 4x Ultimus Champ - #2 Career Sacks - Hall of Fame
Cooter Bigsby (S14-S23) - S23 Ultimus Champ - #4 Career Yards - #4 Career TDs - 2x MVP - Hall of Fame
![[Image: 68.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/722696337912496132/759304283312881684/68.png)
Jurisprudence Jones, OL ![[Image: cYhSwFY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/cYhSwFY.png)
