Introduction and Background
During last year's offseason, I looked over the S22 class forum activity. One season in, I'm going to follow up on that pair of articles by analyzing the TPE of the S22 class in the context of the tiers from my forum activity post, starting with seeing where players were drafted and then looking at their TPE after the first post-draft update and then after the last regular season update. I plan a future followup where I combine all this information and then do a mock draft assuming that my mock expansion draft is correct (and I'm sure it won't but bonus media $$$ is over after the expansion results are out, so sorry).
*: Data collection note (reprised) - I originally copied every S22 player from the TPE tracker on 2/24 and then looked at forum activity. I went back and looked for new S22 players after the trading deadline and so I think I have all S22 players now. I looked at final TPE gained on 4/5 which should include all updates according to reliable (?) sources on the updaters' timelines and the run rate of the TPE tracker. For players with an update on 3/28 but not 4/4 I tried to check their update thread and put its numbers in but I may have missed some.
Tiers
1. The Recreates and other people from before the r/nfl post tier (32/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 1 / Latest: 259 269 / Median: 67.5 / Standard deviation: 71.65
TPE on 3/7 (end of the S20 offseason) - Maximum: 187 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 83.5 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 48.82
TPE on 4/4 (start of the S21 offseason) - Maximum: 259 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 160.5 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 74.61
Edit: I had a data entry issue and had 259 instead of 269 for the last pick.
Draft analysis: As I think is expected, this tier had many of the early picks with the first 6 all being from here. With various recreated players as well as those created to maximize TPE gains, that makes sense. However, it also includes the normal mix of players who joined casually during the season and so there are plenty of later picks as well. Still, the median draft pick was second lowest after tier 2.
3/7 TPE analysis: This tier again had the highest maximums due to the players created during the season taking advantage of extra PTs and predictions. The median is much lower than tier 2 which again makes sense given a number of casual joiners which clearly shows in a mode 3/7 TPE of 50.
4/4 TPE analysis: Tier 1 maintains its TPE lead with max rate earning from several members. The median again is behind tier 2 due to the higher number of inactives.
2. The Forum content creators tier (55/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 7 / Latest: 207 / Median: 38 / Standard deviation: 38.60
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 157 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 116 / Mode: 149 / Standard deviation: 31.44
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 229 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 199 / Mode: 215 / Standard deviation: 55.87
Draft analysis: The first 53 picks were from tier 1 and 2 and I think that shows very clearly with the median pick from this tier being 38. It was also the tier with the second lowest last pick after the 4 person sized tier 3 which I think helps show that most players in the tier were regarded as good picks. Being active on the forums creating media was clearly a positive sign in evaluation of players when it came to draft order.
3/7 TPE analysis: Forum activity mostly turned into early TPE gains for this tier. Gaining a median of 66 TPE holds up well and the mode of 5 players with 149 TPE right out of the game is also impressive. There were 2 players who did not gain any TPE in the 3/7 update, however, so the tier didn't look quite guaranteed.
4/4 TPE analysis: This tier generally kept to trends from 3/7. Max earning went up by 72 while median went up by 83 which I hypothesize is due to the non-leaders getting higher tier equipment as they made more money. The mode of 215 only has 3 players this time but at only 14 behind the highest player in the tier it's still impressive. Of the 55 players in this tier, only 7 failed to earn more TPE after 3/7. Not all were high earners, but it's still very clearly a good group.
3. The Dilligentsia tier (4/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 54 / Latest: 168 / Median: 123 / Standard deviation: 50.37
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 128 / Minimum: 58 / Median: 84 / Mode: N/A / Standard deviation: 31.21
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 193 / Minimum: 58 / Median: 94.5 / Mode: N/A / Standard deviation: 61.30
Draft analysis: With only 4 players, it's maybe a little unfair to congratulate this tier for having the earliest last player selected. There's a clear later preference to this tier vs. 1 and 2, though, with the first player being taken 54th.
3/7 TPE analysis: As to be expected from the tier that did all the starting tasks, this group had a decent TPE gain rate and was the only tier to have every player in it gain TPE in the 3/7 update. That's all but guaranteed given how the group is defined (though I did realize in my revisiting of tiers that I checked for update pages being well formatted in that they had links but I didn't verify the links went to the correct place for the claim which was the downfall of a few players later on). I hypothesize the considerably lower maximum TPE gained is linked to less media activity and thus less money for equipment but didn't verify that by looking over player update pages.
4/4 TPE analysis: The maximum TPE gain of 71 compares well with tier 2's 72. Ultimately, this tier had 1 fairly active user, one somewhat active, and 2 that never came back to update after 3/7, and so the doubling of standard deviation reflects the diversity.
4. The Rookie tasks are hard OK tier (24/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 60 / Latest: 226 / Median: 116.5 / Standard deviation: 43.50
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 129 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 78.5 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 20.31
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 205 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 112 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 54.87
Draft analysis: I'd expect this tier to look very similar to tier 3 since it's basically that but with the hardest rookie tasks not yet done. The median draft pick is actually sooner (which I think is more sample size related than statistically relevant) and the first pick in the tier was 60 vs. T3's 54.
3/7 TPE analysis: The max TPE earner was 1 ahead of tier 3 but the medians are pretty close. The 4 players at 57 TPE look to have mostly not made claims for their tasks once they were approved but none of those players have been back since February to complain. There were also 2 players still at 50 who seem to have not had an updater point out their update post mistakes, but again neither returned since February.
4/4 TPE analysis: Tier 4's TPE leader got further ahead of tier 3's which makes sense with the increased number of users. The standard deviation increased quite significantly, reflecting the big split between active earners and inactives with no TPE changes, but the median going up over 30 shows a fair number of active users in the tier.
5. The I can read directions and/or copy paste properly tier (27/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 73 / Latest: 251 / Median: 135 / Standard deviation: 51.58
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 109 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 57 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 15.27
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 207 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 59 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 47.03
Draft analysis: This group slightly trailed tier 4 which I think follows from less rapidly jumping on rookie tasks. I presume most of the players selected earlier in the draft would have shown what's needed to be in a higher tier if I had re-analyzed it at that point in time while the tail end are those who showed little further activity.
3/7 TPE analysis: This group shows a distinct lagging of tier 4 on both max and median TPE gained. The median makes a lot of sense as if a user hadn't done rookie tasks yet I'd figure the odds of them remaining active were lower. The maximum being behind I don't have an intuitive explanation for, though.
4/4 TPE analysis: The top earner made up the 20 point gap and actually overtook the top tier 4 earner. The median only going up 2 while the standard deviation more than tripled shows the big divide between the active and inactive users in this tier.
6. The Update pages have a format all their own tier (55/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 63 / Latest: 262 / Median: 181.5 / Standard deviation: 57.17
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 105 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 57 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 10.61
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 200 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 57 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 39.72
Draft analysis: The first player selected from tier 6 was actually 10 picks ahead of tier 5 but the median fell of fairly significantly, which I assume is mostly a reflection if players figured out that they had issues with their update page and remained active or if they gave up.
3/7 TPE analysis: The top earner only narrowly trailed tier 5's which again I figure would be because those users who figured out the format and remained active completed tasks at a rate similar to other higher TPE players. However, tier 6 is now more than 50 TPE behind the top tier 2 earners with the gradual dropoff, so while a top earner from this tier is a solid pick, it isn't a slam dunk.
4/4 TPE analysis: The trend of top earner slightly behind tier 5 continues but the lack of any movement in median reflects that most users in this tier are inactive.
7. The Technically update pages don't have to be updated tier (8/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 67 / Latest: 254 / Median: 227.5 / Standard deviation: 73.67
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 77 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 9.55
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 146 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 33.94
Draft analysis: Tier 7 tied with tier 9 for latest median draft pick which makes sense to me, as if a user creates an update page but doesn't add the first activity check and free training to it within a couple days, I'd expect a high chance of future inactivity.
3/7 TPE analysis: This tier did actually have an active player! And that ended up being exactly 1 active of the 8 tier members. 77 initial TPE isn't super high, but it's a lot more than 50.
4/4 TPE analysis: The one active user kept up earning with the 69 TPE gained in the season being quite respectable. None of the others returned to gain more TPE, however.
8. The There's still hope tier (22/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 68 / Latest: 270 / Median: 186.5 / Standard deviation: 54.01
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 71 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 6.94
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 104 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 20.49
Draft analysis: Apparently some teams agreed that there was still hope for with tier's players with the first being taken with the 68th pick. The median being lower than tier 7 I presume is related to the players who were coming back getting around to doing the various work (update page, claim tasks, etc) that teams are looking for. I could imagine some users were also contacted by teams and were then guided through the process, but I don't know.
3/7 TPE analysis: 71 initial TPE is fairly far behind the other tier leaders, so it seems like the slow start from signup to activity continued somewhat. The low standard deviation and median of 50 aren't the best at explaining the group activity, so I'll mention that 8 of the 22 had more than 50 TPE as of 3/7.
4/4 TPE analysis: Activity actually picked up somewhat with 9 players going up in TPE from 3/7 to 4/4. However, with a maximum of 104, the leader is probably looking at more time in the DSFL before hitting the NSFL after the draft. There's certainly still time in this offseason for a committed user, but there's a lot of ground to catch up.
9. The There's probably no hope tier (38/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 94 / Latest: 268 / Median: 227.5 / Standard deviation: 47.73
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 52 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 0.32
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 85 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 5.68
Draft analysis: This group unsurprisingly had the lowest first draft selection of all the tiers and was tied for lowest median which again makes intuitive sense.
3/7 TPE analysis: There was not quite no hope for tier 9 with exactly one user of the 38 in the tier getting any TPE. But, the other 37 had no offseason activity.
4/4 TPE analysis: The 4/4 TPE leader was actually not the 3/7 leader, but was sadly still the sole user to claim TPE from this tier.
10. The Created after I copied names out of the TPE tracker (but before the draft) "tier" (7/285 players)
Looking over the players who weren't created at the time of my last article, I realized that there were two cases for the previous tier 10 - players who created by the time of the draft and so were selected, and those who were created after the draft and therefore were not drafted. This tier includes the draftees and consists of
Jack Banks, Linebacker
Spike Suzuki, Linebacker
James Carson, Offensive Line
Tom Sofa, Quarterback
Silas Meissner, Safety
Max McClure, Tight End
Blake Alexander, Wide Receiver
Draft selection - Earliest: 70 / Latest: 271 / Median: 89 / Standard deviation: 76.54
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 104 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 69 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 18.61
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 181 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 74 / Mode: N/A / Standard deviation: 52.50
Draft analysis: This group I would expect to look like the non-recreates from tier 1, aka the 'found the NSFL but not from r/nfl that one time' group. It also ended up with the last player selected in the draft. The later selections here may also reflect that teams had less time to scout these players since they were literally created later in the process.
3/7 TPE analysis: As I'd expect given the lack of pre-grouping based on a pattern of activity, tier 10 was ahead of the last few mostly inactive tiers in teams of TPE earning. The 104 max is just behind tiers 5 and 6 while the 69 median is between tier 4 and 5. The mode of 50 reflects that there were still a number of players (2/7) who didn't gain any TPE.
4/4 TPE analysis: The top earner gaining 77 TPE in the season is quite respectable but does fall a bit further behind tier 5 and 6. The median rose, though, showing that there were several active users.
11. The Created after I copied names out of the TPE tracker (but after the draft) "tier" (13/285 players)
As stated above under section 10, this new tier is for players who were not drafted due to creating after the draft (but still as part of the S22 class). 7/13 were created early enough to have a TPE score on 3/7 but the other 6 did not. Stats for the 3/7 TPE include only those created by then. This tier consists of
Lance Bangs, Cornerback
Beef Buckets, Defensive End
Claude Miller II, Defensive Tackle
Banjo May, Kicker/Punter
Benson Bayley Jr., Linebacker
Dex Kennedy, Linebacker
Dick Daniels, Linebacker
James Angler, Tight End
Broken Bot, Wide Receiver
Jamie Watson, Wide Receiver
Nick Kaepercolin, Wide Receiver
Sean Snyder, Wide Receiver
Taylor Cooper, Wide Receiver
Draft selection - N/A
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 50 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 0.00
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 187 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 100 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 49.26
Draft analysis: This group created after the draft, so they naturally weren't drafted.
3/7 TPE analysis: With all of these users created after the draft, it makes sense that none had more than starter TPE on 3/7.
4/4 TPE analysis: The top earner here actually surpassed tier 10 and the median of 100 is actually ahead of tier 3 (though not tier 4). My intuition here is that players joining during the season can immediately get started on tasks and watching games and so that with more to do they're more likely to stay around. It might be the other way, though, where those who find the league to join not via advertisement are more inclined to be active. I'm not sure, but either way a number of the tier 11 players look like interesting NSFL draft picks for S22.
Pictures
To hopefully help readers understand the data better, here's a few different views of it.
![[Image: 125kVWVl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/125kVWVl.png)
This shows the draft selection order vs. TPE on 3/7. It shows the fairly general trend of fewer active users in the later rounds as well as the patterns of common point totals. The two notable outliers are both QBs who had draft day concerns about future activity given past actions but seem to be active still.
![[Image: 6OLkVxHl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/6OLkVxHl.png)
Here's the same style of plot but for TPE on 4/4. A few more late round outliers are apparent as is the strength of the early rounds with the first player still at 50 TPE taken 94th and the lowest player in the first 6 rounds at 76.
![[Image: U8ALe12l.png]](http://i.imgur.com/U8ALe12l.png)
This is the min/max/median draft pick number by tier. Edit: Tier 1 max should be at 269 not 259 due to my copying the wrong value.
![[Image: NiG9uMkl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/NiG9uMkl.png)
Min/max/median TPE on 3/7 by tier.
![[Image: ZkhR2Qsl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/ZkhR2Qsl.png)
Min/max/median TPE on 4/4 by tier.
Conclusions
I believe my forum activity tiers were generally predictive of S21 TPE activities. There were definitely outliers, but I'm happy with its effectiveness as a framework.
Looking to the future, however, I presume it's probably overly specific when it comes to typical draft classes which don't have a huge influx due to a singular event. In particular, I'm not sure if there's really more than 3 key groups (forum content creators, active forum updaters who aren't creating content yet, and created but not returning after the first week) to look at in a typical draft.
During last year's offseason, I looked over the S22 class forum activity. One season in, I'm going to follow up on that pair of articles by analyzing the TPE of the S22 class in the context of the tiers from my forum activity post, starting with seeing where players were drafted and then looking at their TPE after the first post-draft update and then after the last regular season update. I plan a future followup where I combine all this information and then do a mock draft assuming that my mock expansion draft is correct (and I'm sure it won't but bonus media $$$ is over after the expansion results are out, so sorry).
*: Data collection note (reprised) - I originally copied every S22 player from the TPE tracker on 2/24 and then looked at forum activity. I went back and looked for new S22 players after the trading deadline and so I think I have all S22 players now. I looked at final TPE gained on 4/5 which should include all updates according to reliable (?) sources on the updaters' timelines and the run rate of the TPE tracker. For players with an update on 3/28 but not 4/4 I tried to check their update thread and put its numbers in but I may have missed some.
Tiers
1. The Recreates and other people from before the r/nfl post tier (32/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 1 / Latest: 259 269 / Median: 67.5 / Standard deviation: 71.65
TPE on 3/7 (end of the S20 offseason) - Maximum: 187 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 83.5 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 48.82
TPE on 4/4 (start of the S21 offseason) - Maximum: 259 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 160.5 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 74.61
Edit: I had a data entry issue and had 259 instead of 269 for the last pick.
Draft analysis: As I think is expected, this tier had many of the early picks with the first 6 all being from here. With various recreated players as well as those created to maximize TPE gains, that makes sense. However, it also includes the normal mix of players who joined casually during the season and so there are plenty of later picks as well. Still, the median draft pick was second lowest after tier 2.
3/7 TPE analysis: This tier again had the highest maximums due to the players created during the season taking advantage of extra PTs and predictions. The median is much lower than tier 2 which again makes sense given a number of casual joiners which clearly shows in a mode 3/7 TPE of 50.
4/4 TPE analysis: Tier 1 maintains its TPE lead with max rate earning from several members. The median again is behind tier 2 due to the higher number of inactives.
2. The Forum content creators tier (55/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 7 / Latest: 207 / Median: 38 / Standard deviation: 38.60
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 157 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 116 / Mode: 149 / Standard deviation: 31.44
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 229 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 199 / Mode: 215 / Standard deviation: 55.87
Draft analysis: The first 53 picks were from tier 1 and 2 and I think that shows very clearly with the median pick from this tier being 38. It was also the tier with the second lowest last pick after the 4 person sized tier 3 which I think helps show that most players in the tier were regarded as good picks. Being active on the forums creating media was clearly a positive sign in evaluation of players when it came to draft order.
3/7 TPE analysis: Forum activity mostly turned into early TPE gains for this tier. Gaining a median of 66 TPE holds up well and the mode of 5 players with 149 TPE right out of the game is also impressive. There were 2 players who did not gain any TPE in the 3/7 update, however, so the tier didn't look quite guaranteed.
4/4 TPE analysis: This tier generally kept to trends from 3/7. Max earning went up by 72 while median went up by 83 which I hypothesize is due to the non-leaders getting higher tier equipment as they made more money. The mode of 215 only has 3 players this time but at only 14 behind the highest player in the tier it's still impressive. Of the 55 players in this tier, only 7 failed to earn more TPE after 3/7. Not all were high earners, but it's still very clearly a good group.
3. The Dilligentsia tier (4/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 54 / Latest: 168 / Median: 123 / Standard deviation: 50.37
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 128 / Minimum: 58 / Median: 84 / Mode: N/A / Standard deviation: 31.21
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 193 / Minimum: 58 / Median: 94.5 / Mode: N/A / Standard deviation: 61.30
Draft analysis: With only 4 players, it's maybe a little unfair to congratulate this tier for having the earliest last player selected. There's a clear later preference to this tier vs. 1 and 2, though, with the first player being taken 54th.
3/7 TPE analysis: As to be expected from the tier that did all the starting tasks, this group had a decent TPE gain rate and was the only tier to have every player in it gain TPE in the 3/7 update. That's all but guaranteed given how the group is defined (though I did realize in my revisiting of tiers that I checked for update pages being well formatted in that they had links but I didn't verify the links went to the correct place for the claim which was the downfall of a few players later on). I hypothesize the considerably lower maximum TPE gained is linked to less media activity and thus less money for equipment but didn't verify that by looking over player update pages.
4/4 TPE analysis: The maximum TPE gain of 71 compares well with tier 2's 72. Ultimately, this tier had 1 fairly active user, one somewhat active, and 2 that never came back to update after 3/7, and so the doubling of standard deviation reflects the diversity.
4. The Rookie tasks are hard OK tier (24/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 60 / Latest: 226 / Median: 116.5 / Standard deviation: 43.50
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 129 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 78.5 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 20.31
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 205 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 112 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 54.87
Draft analysis: I'd expect this tier to look very similar to tier 3 since it's basically that but with the hardest rookie tasks not yet done. The median draft pick is actually sooner (which I think is more sample size related than statistically relevant) and the first pick in the tier was 60 vs. T3's 54.
3/7 TPE analysis: The max TPE earner was 1 ahead of tier 3 but the medians are pretty close. The 4 players at 57 TPE look to have mostly not made claims for their tasks once they were approved but none of those players have been back since February to complain. There were also 2 players still at 50 who seem to have not had an updater point out their update post mistakes, but again neither returned since February.
4/4 TPE analysis: Tier 4's TPE leader got further ahead of tier 3's which makes sense with the increased number of users. The standard deviation increased quite significantly, reflecting the big split between active earners and inactives with no TPE changes, but the median going up over 30 shows a fair number of active users in the tier.
5. The I can read directions and/or copy paste properly tier (27/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 73 / Latest: 251 / Median: 135 / Standard deviation: 51.58
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 109 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 57 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 15.27
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 207 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 59 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 47.03
Draft analysis: This group slightly trailed tier 4 which I think follows from less rapidly jumping on rookie tasks. I presume most of the players selected earlier in the draft would have shown what's needed to be in a higher tier if I had re-analyzed it at that point in time while the tail end are those who showed little further activity.
3/7 TPE analysis: This group shows a distinct lagging of tier 4 on both max and median TPE gained. The median makes a lot of sense as if a user hadn't done rookie tasks yet I'd figure the odds of them remaining active were lower. The maximum being behind I don't have an intuitive explanation for, though.
4/4 TPE analysis: The top earner made up the 20 point gap and actually overtook the top tier 4 earner. The median only going up 2 while the standard deviation more than tripled shows the big divide between the active and inactive users in this tier.
6. The Update pages have a format all their own tier (55/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 63 / Latest: 262 / Median: 181.5 / Standard deviation: 57.17
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 105 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 57 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 10.61
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 200 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 57 / Mode: 57 / Standard deviation: 39.72
Draft analysis: The first player selected from tier 6 was actually 10 picks ahead of tier 5 but the median fell of fairly significantly, which I assume is mostly a reflection if players figured out that they had issues with their update page and remained active or if they gave up.
3/7 TPE analysis: The top earner only narrowly trailed tier 5's which again I figure would be because those users who figured out the format and remained active completed tasks at a rate similar to other higher TPE players. However, tier 6 is now more than 50 TPE behind the top tier 2 earners with the gradual dropoff, so while a top earner from this tier is a solid pick, it isn't a slam dunk.
4/4 TPE analysis: The trend of top earner slightly behind tier 5 continues but the lack of any movement in median reflects that most users in this tier are inactive.
7. The Technically update pages don't have to be updated tier (8/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 67 / Latest: 254 / Median: 227.5 / Standard deviation: 73.67
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 77 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 9.55
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 146 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 33.94
Draft analysis: Tier 7 tied with tier 9 for latest median draft pick which makes sense to me, as if a user creates an update page but doesn't add the first activity check and free training to it within a couple days, I'd expect a high chance of future inactivity.
3/7 TPE analysis: This tier did actually have an active player! And that ended up being exactly 1 active of the 8 tier members. 77 initial TPE isn't super high, but it's a lot more than 50.
4/4 TPE analysis: The one active user kept up earning with the 69 TPE gained in the season being quite respectable. None of the others returned to gain more TPE, however.
8. The There's still hope tier (22/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 68 / Latest: 270 / Median: 186.5 / Standard deviation: 54.01
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 71 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 6.94
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 104 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 20.49
Draft analysis: Apparently some teams agreed that there was still hope for with tier's players with the first being taken with the 68th pick. The median being lower than tier 7 I presume is related to the players who were coming back getting around to doing the various work (update page, claim tasks, etc) that teams are looking for. I could imagine some users were also contacted by teams and were then guided through the process, but I don't know.
3/7 TPE analysis: 71 initial TPE is fairly far behind the other tier leaders, so it seems like the slow start from signup to activity continued somewhat. The low standard deviation and median of 50 aren't the best at explaining the group activity, so I'll mention that 8 of the 22 had more than 50 TPE as of 3/7.
4/4 TPE analysis: Activity actually picked up somewhat with 9 players going up in TPE from 3/7 to 4/4. However, with a maximum of 104, the leader is probably looking at more time in the DSFL before hitting the NSFL after the draft. There's certainly still time in this offseason for a committed user, but there's a lot of ground to catch up.
9. The There's probably no hope tier (38/285 players)
Draft selection - Earliest: 94 / Latest: 268 / Median: 227.5 / Standard deviation: 47.73
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 52 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 0.32
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 85 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 5.68
Draft analysis: This group unsurprisingly had the lowest first draft selection of all the tiers and was tied for lowest median which again makes intuitive sense.
3/7 TPE analysis: There was not quite no hope for tier 9 with exactly one user of the 38 in the tier getting any TPE. But, the other 37 had no offseason activity.
4/4 TPE analysis: The 4/4 TPE leader was actually not the 3/7 leader, but was sadly still the sole user to claim TPE from this tier.
10. The Created after I copied names out of the TPE tracker (but before the draft) "tier" (7/285 players)
Looking over the players who weren't created at the time of my last article, I realized that there were two cases for the previous tier 10 - players who created by the time of the draft and so were selected, and those who were created after the draft and therefore were not drafted. This tier includes the draftees and consists of
Jack Banks, Linebacker
Spike Suzuki, Linebacker
James Carson, Offensive Line
Tom Sofa, Quarterback
Silas Meissner, Safety
Max McClure, Tight End
Blake Alexander, Wide Receiver
Draft selection - Earliest: 70 / Latest: 271 / Median: 89 / Standard deviation: 76.54
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 104 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 69 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 18.61
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 181 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 74 / Mode: N/A / Standard deviation: 52.50
Draft analysis: This group I would expect to look like the non-recreates from tier 1, aka the 'found the NSFL but not from r/nfl that one time' group. It also ended up with the last player selected in the draft. The later selections here may also reflect that teams had less time to scout these players since they were literally created later in the process.
3/7 TPE analysis: As I'd expect given the lack of pre-grouping based on a pattern of activity, tier 10 was ahead of the last few mostly inactive tiers in teams of TPE earning. The 104 max is just behind tiers 5 and 6 while the 69 median is between tier 4 and 5. The mode of 50 reflects that there were still a number of players (2/7) who didn't gain any TPE.
4/4 TPE analysis: The top earner gaining 77 TPE in the season is quite respectable but does fall a bit further behind tier 5 and 6. The median rose, though, showing that there were several active users.
11. The Created after I copied names out of the TPE tracker (but after the draft) "tier" (13/285 players)
As stated above under section 10, this new tier is for players who were not drafted due to creating after the draft (but still as part of the S22 class). 7/13 were created early enough to have a TPE score on 3/7 but the other 6 did not. Stats for the 3/7 TPE include only those created by then. This tier consists of
Lance Bangs, Cornerback
Beef Buckets, Defensive End
Claude Miller II, Defensive Tackle
Banjo May, Kicker/Punter
Benson Bayley Jr., Linebacker
Dex Kennedy, Linebacker
Dick Daniels, Linebacker
James Angler, Tight End
Broken Bot, Wide Receiver
Jamie Watson, Wide Receiver
Nick Kaepercolin, Wide Receiver
Sean Snyder, Wide Receiver
Taylor Cooper, Wide Receiver
Draft selection - N/A
TPE on 3/7 - Maximum: 50 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 50 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 0.00
TPE on 4/4 - Maximum: 187 / Minimum: 50 / Median: 100 / Mode: 50 / Standard deviation: 49.26
Draft analysis: This group created after the draft, so they naturally weren't drafted.
3/7 TPE analysis: With all of these users created after the draft, it makes sense that none had more than starter TPE on 3/7.
4/4 TPE analysis: The top earner here actually surpassed tier 10 and the median of 100 is actually ahead of tier 3 (though not tier 4). My intuition here is that players joining during the season can immediately get started on tasks and watching games and so that with more to do they're more likely to stay around. It might be the other way, though, where those who find the league to join not via advertisement are more inclined to be active. I'm not sure, but either way a number of the tier 11 players look like interesting NSFL draft picks for S22.
Pictures
To hopefully help readers understand the data better, here's a few different views of it.
This shows the draft selection order vs. TPE on 3/7. It shows the fairly general trend of fewer active users in the later rounds as well as the patterns of common point totals. The two notable outliers are both QBs who had draft day concerns about future activity given past actions but seem to be active still.
Here's the same style of plot but for TPE on 4/4. A few more late round outliers are apparent as is the strength of the early rounds with the first player still at 50 TPE taken 94th and the lowest player in the first 6 rounds at 76.
This is the min/max/median draft pick number by tier. Edit: Tier 1 max should be at 269 not 259 due to my copying the wrong value.
Min/max/median TPE on 3/7 by tier.
Min/max/median TPE on 4/4 by tier.
Conclusions
I believe my forum activity tiers were generally predictive of S21 TPE activities. There were definitely outliers, but I'm happy with its effectiveness as a framework.
Looking to the future, however, I presume it's probably overly specific when it comes to typical draft classes which don't have a huge influx due to a singular event. In particular, I'm not sure if there's really more than 3 key groups (forum content creators, active forum updaters who aren't creating content yet, and created but not returning after the first week) to look at in a typical draft.
![[Image: JYi8HmG.png]](https://i.imgur.com/JYi8HmG.png)
Draft Steal (retired S35 CB) - Profile/Update | Wiki
Troen Egghands (retired S22 DE) - Profile | Update | Wiki
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