*ISFL - S25 - Playoff Probabilities After Week 12

[Cody]

I'm bringing back my playoff probabilities for the last few weeks of the ISFL season. 

Here is a link to the DSFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities which has a quick explanation of how I simulated it. It's not perfect but it's fun to get an idea of where teams will finish up in the season. 

That being said here's a breakdown of the ISFL starting with the current standings:

NSFC

Colorado Yeti: 9-3
Baltimore Hawks: 7-5
Chicago Butchers: 7-5
Sarasoata Sailfish: 7-5
Yellowknife Wraiths: 5-7
Philadelphia Liberty: 5-7
Berlin Fire Salamanders: 3-9

ASFC

Orange County Otters: 10-2
Honolulu Hahalua: 7-5
San Jose SaberCats: 6-6
Arizona Outlaws: 6-6
Austin Copperheads: 5-7
New Orleans Second Line: 5-7
New York Silverbacks: 2-10

Here is a look at the team results after running numerous simulations and a broad overview of each conference:

NSFC

  Colorado Yeti | Current Record: 9-3 | Playoff Probability: 90% | Average Number of Wins: 11.35

Baltimore Hawks | Current Record: 7-5 | Playoff Probability: 50% | Average Number of Wins: 8.55

Chicago Butchers | Current Record: 7-5| Playoff Probability: 65% | Average Number of Wins: 8.85

Sarasota Sailfish | Current Record: 7-5 | Playoff Probability: 95% | Average Number of Wins: 9.6

Yellowknife Wraiths | Current Record: 5-7 | Playoff Probability: 0% | Average Number of Wins: 6.85

  Philadelphia Liberty | Current Record: 5-7 | Playoff Probability: 0% | Average Number of Wins: 6.75

 Berlin Fire Salamanders | Current Record: 3-9 | Playoff Probability: 0% | Average Number of Wins: 4.95

My Take

Colorado Yeti - The biggest shock to come out of these simulations is that Colorado wasn't a lock to make the playoffs in every simulation, only making the playoffs in 90% of simulations. It's virtually a lock but with the way the simulations have been going these season nothing is set in stone. They had an average of 11.35 wins though in the simulation and that should easily lock them up the #1 seed. Colorado had the majority of preseason picks to win the Ultimus and I don't think a lot of people's minds have been changed this season.

Sarasota Sailfish -  The Sailfish are coming out on top of all the NSFC teams with a 95% chance of making the playoffs. They had quite the slow start to the season but are on fire as of late being winners of 5 straight. Will they continue the streak or fall back to Earth? Their final 4 games are Austin, at Chicago, Yellowknife and at Baltimore. Sarasota at WORST goes 2-2 in this stretch and should clinch a spot with 9 wins. I think they notch 3 wins and go in as the 2 seed.

Baltimore Hawks - The surprise of the season. The Hawks finished Season 24 at 3-13 and did not look like they were going to compete at all in Season 25. The simulation was 50/50 on them making the playoffs, which is understandable. They've been playing up and down to their competition. My guess is they go 2-2 to finish the season and it'll come down to tiebreakers on whether they make the playoffs or not. 

Chicago Butchers - After sneaking in the S24 playoffs as the 3 seed, Chicago looks poised to do the same in Season 25. They're playing better this season and mainly have won the games they were favored. The simulation gave them a 65% chance to make the playoffs with an average of 8.85 victories. They're in the same boat as Baltimore, I believe they also go 2-2 to finish the season and will await tiebreakers on whether or not they make the playoffs.

Yellowknife Wraiths & Philadelphia Liberty - While not technically eliminated from the playoffs the simulation did not believe in either team and they did not make the playoffs in any sim. Yellowknife was expected to have a down year and Philadelphia is in the midst of a rebuild. There's still hope but it's dwindling. 

Berlin Fire Salamanders - It's not a bad showing for an expansion team, they've been playing fairly well this season but no playoffs for Berlin this year. It'll take another offseason or two for them to make any waves.

ASFC


Orange County Otters | Current Record: 10-2 | Playoff Probability: 100% | Average Number of Wins: 12.4

Honolulu Hahalua | Current Record: 7-5 | Playoff Probability: 90% | Average Number of Wins: 9.55

San Jose SaberCats | Current Record: 6-6 | Playoff Probability: 25% | Average Number of Wins: 8.25

Arizona Outlaws | Current Record: 6-6 | Playoff Probability: 80% | Average Number of Wins: 8.35

Austin Copperheads | Current Record: 5-7 | Playoff Probability: 5% | Average Number of Wins: 6.6

New Orleans Second Line | Current Record: 5-7 | Playoff Probability: 0% | Average Number of Wins: 6.65

New York Silverbacks | Current Record: 2-10 | Playoff Probability: 0% | Average Number of Wins: 3.3


My Take

Orange County Otters - Orange County has been playing better than most people expected. I myself thought they were still a solid team who had a ceiling of 9 wins. After Week 12 they're already at 10 and are projected to win 12.4. The only team in this first simulation to get 100% Orange County will have the #1 again in the AFSC but can they get to the Ultimus this season?

Honolulu Hahalua - Honolulu has strung together back to back wins and winning 4 of their last 5 to take ahold of second place in the ASFC. They currently have a 90% chance to make the playoffs and with games against New York and New Orleans upcoming it's hard to see them not getting at least 9 wins this season and locking up a playoff spot.

San Jose SaberCats- The defending champions are currently on a 2 game losing streak and the simulation doesn't seem to like them to get in, currently sitting at a 25% chance. However, their final 4 games are against teams with losing records: NO, at Phi, Aus and at NY. They should be able to win at least 3 of those games and get into the playoffs.

Arizona Outlaws - I loved Arizona coming into the season. They've definitely been back and forth this season, the simulation loves them to make the playoffs at 80% but with 2 of their final 4 games being at Orange County and home against Honolulu they're going to have a difficult time and it looks like a 2-2 finish. That's not to say they don't make it they'll just need to upset in one of those games or have San Jose fall flat. 

Austin Copperheads & New Orleans Second Line - Two teams I was very high in the preseason. Similar to Yellowknife and Philadelphia they're not eliminated from playoff contention but it's going to be difficult for them to get in. Austin got a sliver of hope at 5% while New Orleans received 0%. The teams still have a chance but are going to need a number of dominos to fall right. 

New York Silverbacks - New York was able to avoid an 0-16 season with back to back wins. The simulation had them at 0% and although I don't believe they are TECHNICALLY eliminated (I could be wrong, just thinking if they go 6-10 along with everyone else the tiebreakers could fall in their favor) This team is going to need a few offseason to catch up to the rest of the ASFC.

[Billybolo53]

Colorado Yeti - The biggest shock to come out of these simulations is that Colorado wasn't a lock to make the playoffs in every simulation, only making the playoffs in 90% of simulations. It's virtually a lock but with the way the simulations have been going these season nothing is set in stone. They had an average of 11.35 wins though in the simulation and that should easily lock them up the #1 seed. Colorado had the majority of preseason picks to win the Ultimus and I don't think a lot of people's minds have been changed this season.

Sarasota Sailfish -  The Sailfish are coming out on top of all the NSFC teams with a 95% chance of making the playoffs. They had quite the slow start to the season but are on fire as of late being winners of 5 straight. Will they continue the streak or fall back to Earth? Their final 4 games are Austin, at Chicago, Yellowknife and at Baltimore. Sarasota at WORST goes 2-2 in this stretch and should clinch a spot with 9 wins. I think they notch 3 wins and go in as the 2 seed.

[retrospace111]

SJS is 6-6 not 7-5

[Cody]

SJS is 6-6 not 7-5

Lol I had that correct in simulator mistyped here

[Starboy]

So you’re saying there’s a chance

[Jimi64]

I don’t understand. Shouldn’t all the probabilities be 50%? Either they make it or they don’t