With my first Stock Watch article getting fairly positive reception, I thought I would try my hand at writing more of these as the season goes on. With the introduction out of the way, the format will be a little bit different going forward than the first article. I'll be providing more details regarding market trends and week-to-week stock price changes and more details for each team explaining my reasoning for a Buy/Sell/Hold call.
Before I get to that for this week, I do want to give a couple of updates to the introduction from last time. First, I was informed by both @wonderful_art and @Duilio05 that user-to-user stock sales do not influence price at all, counter to what I had believed and written in my previous piece. This means that those transactions are only useful to us as investors to gauge other peoples' evaluations of the stock, but they do not intrinsically influence stock prices themselves.
I'd also like to take a second to talk about market strategy. Because of how the formula works, I think there are a few different ways to try to earn profit off the stock market:
1. Predict Elo changes, the most straightforward way most likely. This is just to anticipate which teams are going to improve from where they are now, and buy those stocks before they rattle off a few wins, thereby increasing their Elo rating and their stock value. Then sell whenever you feel the team has reached about its peak Elo and start over with another team currently in a slump.
2. Anticipate the crowd. Because stock prices will slowly change to reflect ownership changes (i.e. stocks with high ownership will see steady growth while those with low ownership will see a steady slide), buying stocks of a team that other people are buying / will buy stock of should be a decently good way to see returns. This strategy is one that will likely only work in the near term, as once the market is close to saturated (100% ownership of shares of each team), these ownership changes are unlikely to create much movement in stock prices.
3. User-to-user sales. While these are enticing because of the 5% fee, compared to the 10% fee of selling back to the Casino, as well as the possibilities of bidding wars that drive the price up, this is only really viable in very specific cases. It likely relies on having a stock that is fully owned (or at least putting up more shares for auction than are available through the Casino), so that the only way that people can acquire it is through purchase from you. And it also should likely be used in conjunction with #2, to anticipate which stocks people are going to be willing to pay higher-than-market rate for.
For now, I will be basing my advice mostly on point 1, with a small amount of point 2. As the season progresses hopefully we'll gain a better understanding of how user stock purchases/sales compare in influence to Elo ratings movements. If my articles help stir up interest in the market and we end up reaching much higher saturation of shares than we are at right now (closer to 250+ shares owned per team), then we can start getting into strategy with point 3 which I think will be really exciting.
And last before we dive into it, I want to repeat my disclaimer from week 1. The Casino team is not in any way influencing my writing about the stock market, although I do appreciate the feedback they gave on my understanding of the market mechanics last time. I totally understand if anyone doesn't trust the Stock Market or worries that future changes might create huge fluctuations in stock prices as happened over the offseason. However, I personally think it's a cool feature and I want to participate in it, and so I'm writing these articles for people like me who want to figure out how it works and make money off of it.
Now onto the team-by-team advice!
Current Price: $1,665,866
Price Change: -$181,756 (-10.9%)
Shares Owned: 91
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ CHI 23-29 (OT)
Note that the Casino team hid some of the inner workings of the sheet so I can no longer see directly the underlying Elo numbers.
Despite Baltimore's surprisingly good on-field performance in Week 1, giving the consensus top team in the NSFC a real run for their money on the road, they ultimately did suffer a loss and their stock continues to drop dramatically, likely driven in large part by offseason activity away from Baltimore and towards other stocks. My advice remains the same as in my preseason article: getting rid of all Baltimore shares is the easiest market move you can make right now.
Advice: STRONG SELL (Unchanged)
Current Price: $866,828
Price Change: $11,757 (+1.4%)
Shares Owned: 102
Ownership Change: +6
On-Field Performance: Win vs. SAR 27-15
The Yeti were a team that I was high on in the preseason and they had a strong showing in week 1. While the game was closer than the final score indicates (Sarasota led or was tied for a decent stretch of the game, and Colorado added on a garbage time TD after a failed Sarasota 4th down attempt on their last drive with any hope of winning), there's no reason to think that Colorado won't be a top team in the NSFC. Their below average stock price and strong ownership means there's no reason to think this stock won't continue to climb for the foreseeable future. With a few of the other previous BUY options losing some luster this week, I'm upgrading Colorado into STRONG BUY territory.
Advice: STRONG BUY (Previously: BUY)
(Full Disclosure: I bought the 6 shares of COL stock added this week)
Current Price: $918,020
Price Change: -$46,695 (-5.1%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win @ PHI 41-16
The Wraiths had an up-and-down season 25 and I'm not sure anybody really knew what to expect from them this season. As a result they had little market activity over the offseason, which I think may have contributed to their slide here in week 1 despite a good on-field showing. Given this slide and the fact that their week 1 opponent was likely one of the worst teams in the league, I'm not sure we have enough information on what direction the team or the stock is headed in to be confident in one direction or the other. I would wait for more clarity before taking any action with this stock.
ADVICE: HOLD (Unchanged)
Current Price: $1,104,331
Price Change: -$101,741 (-9.2%)
Shares Owned: 88
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win vs. BAL 29-23 (OT)
While the Butchers had a close call in week 1 against the Hawks, I still expect them to be one of the better teams in the NSFC this coming season. While their stock did take a dip, it has solid ownership and I wouldn't be surprised to see more users start buying into the team soon. I'm upgrading this one to a BUY as I think it has solid potential to end up much higher priced at the end of the season than it is currently.
ADVICE: BUY (Previously: HOLD)
Current Price: $918,672
Price Change: -78,979 (-8.6%)
Shares Owned: 69 (nice)
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss vs. YKW 16-41
Yikes. We all knew the Liberty would struggle this season, but losing by 25 points at home to a team that missed the playoffs last season is about the worst case I could have thought of. I don't really see there being any reason to hold Philly stock this season, as it should end up far cheaper by season's end than it is now.
ADVICE: STRONG SELL (Previously: SELL)
Current Price: $1,062,333
Price Change: -$94,296 (-8.9%)
Shares Owned: 77
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win @ ARI 45-42
The good news for Orange County: Their offense put up 45 points against one of the league's better defenses. The bad news: their defense, which was supposed to be the league's best, allowed 42 points to an offense from whose best player Orange county had stolen signed in free agency during the offseason. I expected Arizona's offense to take a step back this season, so this is especially concerning to me. That said, I can't really see any reason to sell the stock of what is almost guaranteed to be a playoff team. I just think there are better buying opportunities elsewhere in the market right now.
ADVICE: HOLD (Unchanged)
Current Price: $675,196
Price Change: $39,911 (+5.9%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: +5
On-Field Performance: Win vs. AUS 24-21 (OT)
A few minutes after my first article in this series was posted, the final 5 shares of New Orleans stock was sold, meaning it has now hit the soft cap of 250 shares existing in the market. This means that the only way to acquire new shares are through user-to-user sales or the Casino releasing new shares, both of which take the form of open auctions. Luckily, the Casino is currently holding just such an auction here, and while I'm not entirely clear on whether it is still running or whether a sale has been made, the bidding clearly values these shares somewhere just north of $1M. (And this is sharp money at play, with Art placing multiple bids)
The team itself looks to be at least as good as it was last year, but this week 1 performance against the Copperheads was a little bit worrying. If you can find more shares and pay around that $1-1.1M price for them, I think that's a fine purchase, but there are other safer and/or higher upside plays you can be making this week.
ADVICE: BUY (Previously: STRONG BUY)
Current Price: $683,307
Price Change: -$35,027 (-5.1%)
Shares Owned: 20
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ NOLA 21-24 (OT)
The Copperheads are not going to be great this season, but their stock is still dirt cheap (second cheapest after only New Orleans, who looks to gain significantly based on ownership and revealed evaluations in bidding). So it's not a bad high-upside play to make, though it is risky.
ADVICE: BUY (Unchanged)
Current Price: $822,510
Price Change: -$43,051 (-5.2%)
Shares Owned: 22
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win @ HON 27-24
The Sabercats are also confusingly cheap and actually lost value after winning their week 1 game away. While I noted their Elo rating last week was the highest in the league, and therefore there was not much room for value growth through that reason, they are still a good team and should be owned more than they are right now. I could see Sabercats ownership starting to climb at any point, so they could be a good buy if you are willing to wait for that to happen.
ADVICE: BUY (Unchanged)
Current Price: $710,811
Price Change: $43,572 (6.1%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: +77
On-Field Performance: Loss vs. OCO 42-45
Z-Whiz bought out the remainder of Arizona stock around gametime in Week 1, so like NOLA this can only be obtained via user-to-user transactions or Casino sales. Unlike NOLA, the on-field product appears to be significantly better here, as a 3 point loss to likely division leader OCO is much preferred to a 3 point win over the likely division worst Copperheads. So if any more shares become available I wouldn't hesitate to bid at least as much is being spent on Second Line shares for Outlaws ones.
ADVICE: STRONG BUY (Unchanged)
Current Price: $725,697
Price Change: $47,128 (+6.5%)
Shares Owned: 43
Ownership Change: +22
On-Field Performance: Loss vs. SJS 24-27
Off the back of a modest increase in ownership, Honolulu saw a small bump in its bargain basement stock price. Although it put up a good fight against the reigning Ultimus champs, a failure to win at home is not a great way to start off the season. I think this is still a good buying opportunity because of its cheap price. I am downgrading it from a strong buy, though, because the team appears to be a little worse than I thought they might be going into the season.
ADVICE: BUY (Previously: STRONG BUY)
Current Price: $930,628
Price Change: $14,562 (1.6%)
Shares Owned: 117
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ COL 15-27
Although the Sailfish lost their week 1 game, they put up a good fight in a road game against a team that made an Ultimus appearance last season. Their stock had a modest bump, but still seems to be undervaluing them from a purely Elo standpoint. While I'm more confident in the Yeti's strength this season and believe that more other users might jump on a Yeti bandwagon, I think the Sailfish are still a good investment at the moment.
ADVICE: BUY (Unchanged)
(Full Disclosure: I own 5 shares of Sailfish stock)
Current Price: $934,874
Price Change: -$137,695 (-14.7%)
Shares Owned: 118
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ NYS 20-38
Given the high price last week and Berlin's poor Elo rating, I suppose in retrospect it would have made more sense to advocate a SELL last week for Berlin. Now that their price has dipped under $1M per share, and because I'm optimistic about them this season given what I've heard from people around the league who have been sim testing for/against the Fire Salamanders, I think it's still worth holding on to Berlin and weathering whatever storm might come the next few weeks. By season's end they'll probably be a relatively strong stock. That said if you really really need the money in the short term I think it's okay to sell Berlin stock this week.
ADVICE: HOLD (Unchanged)
Current Price: $1,197,334
Price Change: -$86,201 (-7.2%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: -15
On-Field Performance: Win vs. BER 38-20
Despite an ongoing auction valuing NYS shares at $2M/share (which will almost surely be invalidated by the Casino and/or punished by HO), the Silverbacks are definitely overvalued from a strictly Elo-based evaluation of their current state. While I am optimistic about them over the course of the season (and winning against Berlin is a pretty good show of strength given my attitudes about Berlin I just talked about above), I think this is definitely a short-term sell. I do expect the stock price to rebound over the course of the season, so if you have a more long-term perspective on stocks I think it is okay to hold as well.
ADVICE: SELL (Previously: STRONG SELL)
Market Summary
STRONG BUY
(+)
BUY
(-)
(-)
(+)
HOLD
SELL
(+)
STRONG SELL
(-)
I would definitely characterize the ISFL Stock Market as a Bull Market right now. There are many teams that have some combination of cheap stocks, strong on-field performances, and good ownership trends that make for tempting buys. A few stocks like Baltimore and Philadelphia, and to a lesser extent New York and Berlin, have a decent ways to fall and a lot of that lost value will presumably be made up by a larger set of other stocks around the league. Hopefully my descriptions of why I'm optimistic about each particular stock can help you individually sort through all of these strong potential gainers and pick the one that best matches your strategy and perspective on the market.
Before I get to that for this week, I do want to give a couple of updates to the introduction from last time. First, I was informed by both @
I'd also like to take a second to talk about market strategy. Because of how the formula works, I think there are a few different ways to try to earn profit off the stock market:
1. Predict Elo changes, the most straightforward way most likely. This is just to anticipate which teams are going to improve from where they are now, and buy those stocks before they rattle off a few wins, thereby increasing their Elo rating and their stock value. Then sell whenever you feel the team has reached about its peak Elo and start over with another team currently in a slump.
2. Anticipate the crowd. Because stock prices will slowly change to reflect ownership changes (i.e. stocks with high ownership will see steady growth while those with low ownership will see a steady slide), buying stocks of a team that other people are buying / will buy stock of should be a decently good way to see returns. This strategy is one that will likely only work in the near term, as once the market is close to saturated (100% ownership of shares of each team), these ownership changes are unlikely to create much movement in stock prices.
3. User-to-user sales. While these are enticing because of the 5% fee, compared to the 10% fee of selling back to the Casino, as well as the possibilities of bidding wars that drive the price up, this is only really viable in very specific cases. It likely relies on having a stock that is fully owned (or at least putting up more shares for auction than are available through the Casino), so that the only way that people can acquire it is through purchase from you. And it also should likely be used in conjunction with #2, to anticipate which stocks people are going to be willing to pay higher-than-market rate for.
For now, I will be basing my advice mostly on point 1, with a small amount of point 2. As the season progresses hopefully we'll gain a better understanding of how user stock purchases/sales compare in influence to Elo ratings movements. If my articles help stir up interest in the market and we end up reaching much higher saturation of shares than we are at right now (closer to 250+ shares owned per team), then we can start getting into strategy with point 3 which I think will be really exciting.
And last before we dive into it, I want to repeat my disclaimer from week 1. The Casino team is not in any way influencing my writing about the stock market, although I do appreciate the feedback they gave on my understanding of the market mechanics last time. I totally understand if anyone doesn't trust the Stock Market or worries that future changes might create huge fluctuations in stock prices as happened over the offseason. However, I personally think it's a cool feature and I want to participate in it, and so I'm writing these articles for people like me who want to figure out how it works and make money off of it.
Now onto the team-by-team advice!
Current Price: $1,665,866
Price Change: -$181,756 (-10.9%)
Shares Owned: 91
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ CHI 23-29 (OT)
Note that the Casino team hid some of the inner workings of the sheet so I can no longer see directly the underlying Elo numbers.
Despite Baltimore's surprisingly good on-field performance in Week 1, giving the consensus top team in the NSFC a real run for their money on the road, they ultimately did suffer a loss and their stock continues to drop dramatically, likely driven in large part by offseason activity away from Baltimore and towards other stocks. My advice remains the same as in my preseason article: getting rid of all Baltimore shares is the easiest market move you can make right now.
Advice: STRONG SELL (Unchanged)
Current Price: $866,828
Price Change: $11,757 (+1.4%)
Shares Owned: 102
Ownership Change: +6
On-Field Performance: Win vs. SAR 27-15
The Yeti were a team that I was high on in the preseason and they had a strong showing in week 1. While the game was closer than the final score indicates (Sarasota led or was tied for a decent stretch of the game, and Colorado added on a garbage time TD after a failed Sarasota 4th down attempt on their last drive with any hope of winning), there's no reason to think that Colorado won't be a top team in the NSFC. Their below average stock price and strong ownership means there's no reason to think this stock won't continue to climb for the foreseeable future. With a few of the other previous BUY options losing some luster this week, I'm upgrading Colorado into STRONG BUY territory.
Advice: STRONG BUY (Previously: BUY)
(Full Disclosure: I bought the 6 shares of COL stock added this week)
Current Price: $918,020
Price Change: -$46,695 (-5.1%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win @ PHI 41-16
The Wraiths had an up-and-down season 25 and I'm not sure anybody really knew what to expect from them this season. As a result they had little market activity over the offseason, which I think may have contributed to their slide here in week 1 despite a good on-field showing. Given this slide and the fact that their week 1 opponent was likely one of the worst teams in the league, I'm not sure we have enough information on what direction the team or the stock is headed in to be confident in one direction or the other. I would wait for more clarity before taking any action with this stock.
ADVICE: HOLD (Unchanged)
Current Price: $1,104,331
Price Change: -$101,741 (-9.2%)
Shares Owned: 88
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win vs. BAL 29-23 (OT)
While the Butchers had a close call in week 1 against the Hawks, I still expect them to be one of the better teams in the NSFC this coming season. While their stock did take a dip, it has solid ownership and I wouldn't be surprised to see more users start buying into the team soon. I'm upgrading this one to a BUY as I think it has solid potential to end up much higher priced at the end of the season than it is currently.
ADVICE: BUY (Previously: HOLD)
Current Price: $918,672
Price Change: -78,979 (-8.6%)
Shares Owned: 69 (nice)
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss vs. YKW 16-41
Yikes. We all knew the Liberty would struggle this season, but losing by 25 points at home to a team that missed the playoffs last season is about the worst case I could have thought of. I don't really see there being any reason to hold Philly stock this season, as it should end up far cheaper by season's end than it is now.
ADVICE: STRONG SELL (Previously: SELL)
Current Price: $1,062,333
Price Change: -$94,296 (-8.9%)
Shares Owned: 77
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win @ ARI 45-42
The good news for Orange County: Their offense put up 45 points against one of the league's better defenses. The bad news: their defense, which was supposed to be the league's best, allowed 42 points to an offense from whose best player Orange county had stolen signed in free agency during the offseason. I expected Arizona's offense to take a step back this season, so this is especially concerning to me. That said, I can't really see any reason to sell the stock of what is almost guaranteed to be a playoff team. I just think there are better buying opportunities elsewhere in the market right now.
ADVICE: HOLD (Unchanged)
Current Price: $675,196
Price Change: $39,911 (+5.9%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: +5
On-Field Performance: Win vs. AUS 24-21 (OT)
A few minutes after my first article in this series was posted, the final 5 shares of New Orleans stock was sold, meaning it has now hit the soft cap of 250 shares existing in the market. This means that the only way to acquire new shares are through user-to-user sales or the Casino releasing new shares, both of which take the form of open auctions. Luckily, the Casino is currently holding just such an auction here, and while I'm not entirely clear on whether it is still running or whether a sale has been made, the bidding clearly values these shares somewhere just north of $1M. (And this is sharp money at play, with Art placing multiple bids)
The team itself looks to be at least as good as it was last year, but this week 1 performance against the Copperheads was a little bit worrying. If you can find more shares and pay around that $1-1.1M price for them, I think that's a fine purchase, but there are other safer and/or higher upside plays you can be making this week.
ADVICE: BUY (Previously: STRONG BUY)
Current Price: $683,307
Price Change: -$35,027 (-5.1%)
Shares Owned: 20
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ NOLA 21-24 (OT)
The Copperheads are not going to be great this season, but their stock is still dirt cheap (second cheapest after only New Orleans, who looks to gain significantly based on ownership and revealed evaluations in bidding). So it's not a bad high-upside play to make, though it is risky.
ADVICE: BUY (Unchanged)
Current Price: $822,510
Price Change: -$43,051 (-5.2%)
Shares Owned: 22
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win @ HON 27-24
The Sabercats are also confusingly cheap and actually lost value after winning their week 1 game away. While I noted their Elo rating last week was the highest in the league, and therefore there was not much room for value growth through that reason, they are still a good team and should be owned more than they are right now. I could see Sabercats ownership starting to climb at any point, so they could be a good buy if you are willing to wait for that to happen.
ADVICE: BUY (Unchanged)
Current Price: $710,811
Price Change: $43,572 (6.1%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: +77
On-Field Performance: Loss vs. OCO 42-45
Z-Whiz bought out the remainder of Arizona stock around gametime in Week 1, so like NOLA this can only be obtained via user-to-user transactions or Casino sales. Unlike NOLA, the on-field product appears to be significantly better here, as a 3 point loss to likely division leader OCO is much preferred to a 3 point win over the likely division worst Copperheads. So if any more shares become available I wouldn't hesitate to bid at least as much is being spent on Second Line shares for Outlaws ones.
ADVICE: STRONG BUY (Unchanged)
Current Price: $725,697
Price Change: $47,128 (+6.5%)
Shares Owned: 43
Ownership Change: +22
On-Field Performance: Loss vs. SJS 24-27
Off the back of a modest increase in ownership, Honolulu saw a small bump in its bargain basement stock price. Although it put up a good fight against the reigning Ultimus champs, a failure to win at home is not a great way to start off the season. I think this is still a good buying opportunity because of its cheap price. I am downgrading it from a strong buy, though, because the team appears to be a little worse than I thought they might be going into the season.
ADVICE: BUY (Previously: STRONG BUY)
Current Price: $930,628
Price Change: $14,562 (1.6%)
Shares Owned: 117
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ COL 15-27
Although the Sailfish lost their week 1 game, they put up a good fight in a road game against a team that made an Ultimus appearance last season. Their stock had a modest bump, but still seems to be undervaluing them from a purely Elo standpoint. While I'm more confident in the Yeti's strength this season and believe that more other users might jump on a Yeti bandwagon, I think the Sailfish are still a good investment at the moment.
ADVICE: BUY (Unchanged)
(Full Disclosure: I own 5 shares of Sailfish stock)
Current Price: $934,874
Price Change: -$137,695 (-14.7%)
Shares Owned: 118
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ NYS 20-38
Given the high price last week and Berlin's poor Elo rating, I suppose in retrospect it would have made more sense to advocate a SELL last week for Berlin. Now that their price has dipped under $1M per share, and because I'm optimistic about them this season given what I've heard from people around the league who have been sim testing for/against the Fire Salamanders, I think it's still worth holding on to Berlin and weathering whatever storm might come the next few weeks. By season's end they'll probably be a relatively strong stock. That said if you really really need the money in the short term I think it's okay to sell Berlin stock this week.
ADVICE: HOLD (Unchanged)
Current Price: $1,197,334
Price Change: -$86,201 (-7.2%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: -15
On-Field Performance: Win vs. BER 38-20
Despite an ongoing auction valuing NYS shares at $2M/share (which will almost surely be invalidated by the Casino and/or punished by HO), the Silverbacks are definitely overvalued from a strictly Elo-based evaluation of their current state. While I am optimistic about them over the course of the season (and winning against Berlin is a pretty good show of strength given my attitudes about Berlin I just talked about above), I think this is definitely a short-term sell. I do expect the stock price to rebound over the course of the season, so if you have a more long-term perspective on stocks I think it is okay to hold as well.
ADVICE: SELL (Previously: STRONG SELL)
Market Summary
STRONG BUY
(+)BUY
(-) (-) (+)HOLD
SELL
(+)STRONG SELL
(-)I would definitely characterize the ISFL Stock Market as a Bull Market right now. There are many teams that have some combination of cheap stocks, strong on-field performances, and good ownership trends that make for tempting buys. A few stocks like Baltimore and Philadelphia, and to a lesser extent New York and Berlin, have a decent ways to fall and a lot of that lost value will presumably be made up by a larger set of other stocks around the league. Hopefully my descriptions of why I'm optimistic about each particular stock can help you individually sort through all of these strong potential gainers and pick the one that best matches your strategy and perspective on the market.
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