*AV for every player in the Prospect Bowl games! (Part 3)

[firstfray]

ready for grading, 2x - new user


Here we are today with the final rankings from the prospect bowl games! Yesterday was wrapped up with the final two regular season games and the championship to crown the prospect bowl winner. First and foremost, I want to congratulate the Auckland Laser Kiwis for winning the Prospect Bowl with an improbably comeback in the 4th quarter. I really though the Sols would run away with the game after the first half so good job to the Kiwis for never giving up!

Again, if you want to see all the explanations for how everything was calculated, they are in Part 1. 
Additionally, check out Part 2 from the second day of prospect bowl games!

I think that I will say after calculating the approximate value is that I really don't like it, especially on defense. For offense it seems like it does an alright job in balancing the team points and how much it affects the AV for each player. However, on defense I felt like the team points carried too much weight and as you can see, the Seafarers benefited from it a lot with their dominant defense. The front 7 are also allocated more team points which lead to defensive backs falling in the overall defensive AV. So, I decided to make my own semi-arbitrary ranking called "Firstfray's ranking". Basically this just takes the individual points of the player divided by the total individual points of either the front 7 or the secondary for the team. Then, to bring the value to an easier to distinguish number, I multiplied it by 50. This value shows how important a player is to their team. If a player has a high percentage of the team individual points, then, without that player the defense would probably be doing worse. 

For the final stats of the games, the simmers did an extra week of games and then simmed the championship game between the Kiwis and Sols. Therefore, the Seafarers and Radioactives played 9 games and the Kiwis and Sols played 10 games. Due to the nature of how AV is calculated, the games played shouldn't have too large of an impact because its mostly determined by comparing the league average of points per drive and the percentage of team yards that the player accounts for. However, this is not true for the individual points on defense. Because these points are just calculated based off of pure stats, the Kiwis and Sols have an advantage by playing in an extra game. This was another reason why I added the "Firstfray's Rankings".

First we'll take a look at the team points.





Jakartas offense slowed down after their hot run but maintains their spot as the #1 scoring offense. The two championship teams are very close behind and then we have the abysmal Radioactives who completely fell apart in the second half of the season. Over on defense, we see that Chernobyls defense tried to keep the Radioactives afloat with the 2nd ranked defense but the dysfunctional offense but too much for them to overcome. The Seafarers had an absolutely smothering defense with almost 37 more team points than the next closely team! Unfortunately for them, the offense gave up the most defensive touchdowns (3), so despite strong defensive performances, the offense was the downfall of this team. The Sols had the worst defense and the Kiwis took advantage of that in the final quarter of the championship. 

Offensive Prospects

RB/FB Prospects



No movement with the running backs this week! Vasiliev cooled off a bit but still barely maintained the top spot over Goose. These two are definitely the top two running backs coming out of the prospect bowl with a sizeable lead over the rest of the ball carriers. Reflecting back on the speed rating we talked about in Part2, both Prince and Grenouille who have speed ratings of 65 and 60, respectively, still have the lowest Y/A out of all running backs. Jackson, with 76 speed, led the league with 3.7 yards per attempt. It really is shame he was relegated to backup duties because if he got the carries Vasiliev or Goose did, he would be leading the league in rushing yards. 


WR/TE Prospects




With wide receivers, Sam The Onion Man slips out of 3rd to 5th, but he still is very close to the two guys above him. Cowabunga and Quick showed the league that they are true #1 receivers as they separated themselves from the pack. These guys are two candidates for offensive player of the year in my eyes. The Badger manages to rebound slightly but still falls below the top receivers in the league. 

We now have a new #1 TE! Banks manages to leapfrog over Marriott with two touchdown receptions. The rest of the tight ends really struggled to get any yards and Rodriguez is yet another disappointment with 13 receptions but only 76 yards to account for it.


OL Prospects



As we move to the offensive line, we see our first big shakeup in the rankings. All of the tackles manage to claim the top 5 spots and we see the top prospect from last time, Williams, fall to 3rd. OL is another position that might need adjustment but with such minimal stats, it can be hard to calculate a good metric compare everyone.  

QB Prospects



The top 3 quarterbacks stand firm in the rankings but outside of that, there is a decent amount of movement. Clarke managed to move up to the 5th spot and Raske falls to the 6th. Going forward, QBs may need a slight nerf with the rushing AV because the top 5 quarterbacks all have a rushing AV over 2 with the rest having less than 0.15. Raske would slot in as the 2nd best pure passer in the prospect bowl but as a gunslinger, he won't be doing much with his legs. 

Defensive Prospects

I mentioned this at the beginning of the article, but I added the "Firstfray's Ranking" as a way to see how valuable a player was to their defense. 

CB Prospects



Hu comes onto the scene on fire as he jumps from the middle of the pack to the top after some dominating performances. 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, and 6 passes defensed in just the last two games help Hu finish the year as the top CB prospect. But this is where we see AV failing to do a good job. Hu and Krieg of the Seafarers claim the top 2 spots but this is largely influenced by Jakartas defense playing at an elite level as a whole. If we take a look at the individual points, Miller still ranks 1st, which makes sense because he led the league in interceptions and 2nd in passes defensed. Hu still managed to climb up to the 3rd spot in individual points thanks to his day 3 performance. In my rankings, Miller was the most valuable to his defense for cornerbacks. 


S Prospects




The top safeties finally managed to solidify themselves as top prospects after the final day getting some separation from the main pack of safeties. Roman on the Kiwis managed to rack up stats to pull ahead of the previous top prospect, Fields, and they both have a solid lead in individual points over the others. With strong performances from Jakartas defense, Harris and Maxwell managed to climb up the rankings in AV. But if we look at my rankings, they both tank in the rankings. These two probably benefited from Hu's performance in the secondary in the AV rankings. Look at all the rankings, Fields and Roman seem to be the most valuable player on their respective defenses. 

LB Prospects



I'm just going to ignore AV for linebackers because you can see that it can be wack. Watterson posts the lowest individual points but managed to be 2nd in AV? And Gurdur is 1st in individual points but 2nd to last in AV. So, lets just look at individual points and my rankings. All these linebackers have been playing at a high level throughout the prospect bowl but Gurdur and Hall have really stood out with the top 2 individual points. As good as Gurdur has been playing though, he's been benefitting from having Bradman, another top prospect alongside him which is why Gurdur and Bradman are so low in my rankings. Hall, Bane, and Walls are all extremely close and you could say that each are equally as important to their team. 

DE Prospects



As we start to wrap up, we have some of the largest gaps between the top prospects with the defensive ends and tackles. Warthol and Project have been dominating offensive linemen and while Project got to celebrate with a championship, Warthols team and defense fell short.  

DT Prospects



Finally we have the defensive tackles. Gravity has been lighting it up this year. With a league leading 7 forced fumbles and 15 TFL this year, Gravity is making the case to be the DPOY for the prospect bowl. Gravity is ranked as the top prospect in all 3 rankings and has a large lead over the rest of the prospects. 

Now that we've wrapped up the analysis of each prospect, lets crown an unofficial offensive and defensive player of the year!

OPOY

Quick, Wide Receiver of the Maccu Picchu Sols

DPOY

Gravity, Defensive Tackle of the Auckland Laser Kiwis

What a year for both of these two. Gravity was a no-brainer for defensive player of the year but on the offensive side it was really close. Ultimately, because of Quick's big play ability (2nd in the league in yard per catch) and consistency (led the league in yards), he edged past Goose, Cowabunga, and ReallyInvisible.

Thank you all for following along and I hope to do something similar for the DSFL! Good luck in the draft to all the prospect!

[zaynzk]

I hope u do stuff like this in the DSFL and ISFL too, was a fun read

[Pat]

This is really good stuff. I would love to see you keep doing something like this regularly for either the DSFL or ISFL or both! (DSFL will probably be easier with only 8 teams to track!)

[Miller]

Roll Sols Roll