*ASFC Playoff Picture

[mithrandir]

ASFC Standings
 Arizona Outlaws  9-5
 New York Silverbacks 9-5
 Orange County Otters 8-6
 New Orleans Second Line 7-7
 San Jose Sabercats 6-7-1
 Austin Copperheads 3-10-1
 Honolulu Hahalua 2-12


Eliminated from playoff contention:
 Austin Copperheads and  Honolulu Hahalua

Playoff Clinching Scenarios:
 Arizona Outlaws clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie, OR a NOLA loss or tie, OR two losses by OCO, OR a greater Points For value than NOLA.
They have all but clinched a playoff spot, since a 9-7 tie in the standings with NOLA would come down to the Points For tiebreaker, in which they have a 58 pt lead over NOLA. It would take a monumental collapse by Arizona to miss the playoffs at this point.

 New York Silverbacks clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie, OR a NOLA loss or tie.
New York will very likely make the playoffs, given that they have a nice home matchup against Honolulu in week 16. However, they are not quite as secure as Arizona, since a standings tie with NOLA would leave NY out in the cold due to conference record.

 Orange County Otters clinch a playoff spot with two wins, a win AND a NOLA loss or tie, OR a tie and a NOLA loss plus a SJS loss or tie.
Orange County is currently the #3 seed in the ASFC. They control their own destiny, only needing to win out to make the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Otters, their two remaining games are on the road against Arizona and at home against NY, the top two teams in their conference. Since NOLA swept OCO this season, OCO can only lose out and make the playoffs if SJS beats NOLA in week 15 and both NOLA and SJS lose in week 16. 

 New Orleans Second Line can clinch a playoff spot by winning twice and ARI losing twice while also outscoring ARI by 58, OR winning twice and NY losing twice, or winning twice and OCO losing once, or winning once and OCO losing twice. Their path to the playoffs is difficult but clear: they need to finish with a tied or better record than NY or OCO, which they have tiebreakers over. 

 San Jose Sabercats can clinch a playoffs only if they win both their remaining games and OCO loses both of theirs. If SJS wins out they will move ahead of NOLA in the standings by beating them in week 15. 

Playoff Chances in Percentage Terms:
(Model approximates win chances based on season HFA data and team win percentages. Please don't get mad about my ad hoc win% chance formula)
 Outlaws
Likelihood to win vs OCO: 64.9%
Likelihood to win @ SJS: 58.4%
Likelihood to lose out: 14.6% 
Likelihood to lose out plus NOLA wins out: 3.3%
Likelihood to also be outscored by 58 by NOLA in two games: ??? Very Small
Playoff chances: 99.999%


 Silverbacks
Likelihood to win vs HON: 93.2%
Likelihood to win @ OCO: 48.8%
Likelihood to lose out: 3.5%
Likelihood to lose out plus NOLA wins out: 0.8%
Playoff Chances: 99.2%

 Otters
Likelihood to win @ ARI 35.1%
Likelihood to win vs NYS 51.2%
Likelihood to win out: 18.0%
Likelihood to lose out: 31.7%

Scenario one: win out 18.0%
Scenario two: win one or more, NOLA loses once or more: 53.0%
Scenario three: lose out and NOLA loses out and SJS loses once: 6.5%
Playoff chances: 77.5%


 Second Line
Likelihood to win vs SJS 61.7%
Likelihood to win vs COL 36.5%
Likelihood to win out: 22.5%
Likelihood to lose out: 24.3%

Scenario one: win out and ARI loses out and pt differential is erased (0.001% or something like that)
Scenario two: win out and NYS loses out: 0.79%
Scenario three: win out and OCO loses at least once: 20.0%
Scenario four: win once and OCO loses out: 24.0%
Playoff chances: 44.8%


 Sabercats
Likelihood to win @ NOLA 38.3%
Likelihood to win vs ARI 41.6%
Likelihood to win out: 15.9%
Likelihood to win out and OCO loses out: 5.0%
Playoff chances: 5.0%

Oh look! After all this, my math is flawed and the percentages don't add up. Perhaps someone smarter than me can tell me why. Regardless, it seems that Arizona and NYS have all but clinched and San Jose is likely on the outside looking in. Given that OCO has some tough games remaining and NOLA is at home for the remainder of their games, where they are 5-1 so far this season, OCO might be a bit nervous and NOLA might have some hope. OCO is in the drivers seat. In my opinion, the mostly likely scenarios are in order:
1. OCO winning once and NOLA losing once (OCO makes playoffs)
2. OCO losing out and NOLA winning once (NOLA makes playoffs)
3. NOLA winning out and OCO losing once (NOLA makes playoffs)

[Net]

crazy finale, let's see how it plays out

[Kotasa]

ASFC is back baby!