*The NSFL Depth Chart - DT/DE Edition

[majesiu]

Time for the first of two where I joined positions since they are basically used interchangeably and unlike CB/S combo, where there is a lot of players to fill their position on their own, DT is already running out of NSFL ready players. Also from the information I gathered DT can play at DE with weight balancing adjustments and DE can play at DT, but won't be as effective due to lower weight. LBs are also sometimes used as Defensive Ends, but aren't as effective there.
Another thing to consider is what type of defense league uses to estimate how many DE/DT we need - most often used variants are 3-4 and nickel as well as 4-3 For simplicity of calculations and no making analysis overly complicated I'll continue with assumption that teams need four down linemen, 3 linebackers, and 4 defensive backs (obviously focusing on defensive line in this piece).

Plan of releases:
1. 8/14 - K/P
2. 8/15 - QB
3. 8/15 - RB
4. 8/16 - DE/DE
5. 8/16 - LB
6. 8/17 - S
7. 8/17 - CB
8. 8/18 - WR/TE
9. 8/18 - League-wide picture and further analysis

All values used were based on the last update of the regular season (not the playoffs one, to give all teams equal chance). Quite possible this will become a seasonal thing if there will be interest in it.

A. Current Overview

1. [S3] - Eli Kamaka DT 934 TPE
2. [S1] - Jayce Tuck DE 845 TPE
3. [S3] - Antonio Sandoval DE 737 TPE
4. [S3] - Joseph Askins DT 661 TPE
5. [S2] - Greg Clegane DT 608 TPE
6. [S6] - Arbin Asipi JR DE 604 TPE
7. [S1] - Kurt Hendrix DE 597 TPE
8. [S1] - Dan Miller DT 519 TPE
9. [S3] - Calkewlated Chambers III DT 471 TPE
10. [S3] - Nicholas Pierno DT 467 TPE
11. [S3] - Godfrey King DT 459 TPE
12. [S1] - Fuego Wozy DE 447 TPE
13. [S8] - Brock Weathers III DE 426 TPE
14. [S8] - Childish Gambino DE 419 TPE
15. [S5] - Ryan Sierra DT 415 TPE
16. [S6] - Cordell Joshua DE 401 TPE
17. [S1] - Ricky Maddox DE 375 TPE
18. [S1] - Mark Ramrio DT 361 TPE
19. [S6] - Norman Bagwell DE 330 TPE
20. [S4] - Andreas Waiters DE 297 TPE
21. [S1] - George Wright Jr. DE 293 TPE
22. [S2] - Drew Davidson DE 283 TPE
23. [S1] - Erasmo Broadway DT 270 TPE
24. [S7] - Zach Skinner DE 267 TPE
25. [S5] - Egor Medved DT 237 TPE
26. [S8] - James Brown DT 209 TPE
27. [S8] - Mark David DT 188 TPE
28. [S3] - Jimmy Cox DE 186 TPE
29. [S3] - Juan Andres DE 181 TPE
30. [S6] - Bogdan Wojcik DT 160 TPE
31. [S8] - Ramadan Steve DT 152 TPE
32. [S6] - Gustav Rodriguez DT 150 TPE

With a larger dataset, we can see position is quite popular over time and with serviceable player in almost every draft class other than S9. Especially good looking is that most impactful one is S3 class with Eli Kamaka and Antonio Sandoval spearheading the efforts, giving most teams a lot of breathing room until they will have to look for replacements, especially with many already in the system from S6-S8 drafts.


As mentioned before DT is less popular choice, which will be magnified in the future since top prospects, especially in S8 went DE way.


Blue - Sum of TPE in that regression class, red - a number of players, yellow - average TPE in that class.



A lot of players in every phase - fighting regression, in their peak or just starting their road. Some of the S1 legends like Dan Miller and Fuego Wozy already retired, others like Jayce Tuck, Kurt Hendrix and S2 Greg Clegane still going strong. Change of guard already happened - handing the reigns of the dominant class from S1 to S3. Next one may happen in two seasons when the S6 class shall overtake and later on S8 class with two franchise DE prospects - Brock Weathers III and Childish Gambino.

B. Team Needs and Prospects Breakdown
Each team will receive a current grade (1-10 scale), based on average TPE of players manning the position (1 - ~50 TPE, 2 ~100 TPE, 3 ~200 TPE). Next grade - future grade - is more subjective since I also tried to estimate regression impact and current prospects in the system - 10 would mean a team has a serviceable player that could last up to 8 more seasons in that position, whole 1 means they have to draft/sign a player asap in that position. It's obviously a bit more complicated since activity also matters here and the more base TPE player currently has the longer he can fight regression.
Since it's much harder to get all players on top earning level I adjusted grades, so averages for each grade are lower than in case of RB/QB so far.

Current Grade / Future Grade
9/6
8/4
7/9
6/7
4/7
4/4
3/8
3/7

Prospects Watch (Interesting S9-S11 players):
1. [S10] - Lo Rax DE 135 TPE
2. [S9] - Young Spaghetti DE 110 TPE
3. [S10] - Odell Marrett DE 97 TPE
4. [S10] - Ryland Morley DE 90 TPE
5. [S10] - Avery Woodham DE 88 TPE
6. [S11] - Kwame Abayomi Mbanefo DE 57 TPE

This is slightly alarming rate since if we consider that usual lifespan of a player is 10 seasons then, each team needing 4 DL multiplied by 8 NSFL teams gives 32 players, so every year would require slightly over 3 prospects a year for replacements, especially now when S1/2 players that were core of the league for so long are fading into the darkness. Still, it's only slightly alarming, since there are looking decently well prospects in S10 draft (and S8 draft as mentioned before was really good in that regard) and apparently both DT/DE position can fight off regression/be effective at low TPE levels while maintaining huge gains with higher levels - one of the really good examples that balancing efforts are paying off.

And to wrap this up quick values showing how many TPE you need to break into any NSFL team roster, how many decent NSFL players are on the team rosters currently and how many good prospects are in the pipeline.
TPE to break into the NSFL Roster: 150
Current NSFL ready (250+) players: 24
Prospects (S8 200+ TPE, S9 150+, S10 100+): 4

[bovovovo]

Nice stuff as always. Love this series.

DL is an area I’m a little worried about as far as scarcity goes... you don’t need a ton of TPE to be effective at being a DL but there just haven’t been that many new DLs, let alone active ones. And at the NSFL level we’ll need 32 to fill each teams roster... 24 if everyone goes 3-4 but then we’d need 32 LBs lol

[DeathOnReddit]

Nice stuff as always. Love this series.

DL is an area I’m a little worried about as far as scarcity goes... you don’t need a ton of TPE to be effective at being a DL but there just haven’t been that many new DLs, let alone active ones. And at the NSFL level we’ll need 32 to fill each teams roster... 24 if everyone goes 3-4 but then we’d need 32 LBs lol

hi

[Phobospwns]

Wait, am I the top DL prospect going into the NSFL draft?

[PDXBaller]

Nice stuff as always. Love this series.

DL is an area I’m a little worried about as far as scarcity goes... you don’t need a ton of TPE to be effective at being a DL but there just haven’t been that many new DLs, let alone active ones. And at the NSFL level we’ll need 32 to fill each teams roster... 24 if everyone goes 3-4 but then we’d need 32 LBs lol

We may need to move to bot DL if there's a big disparity in the next few seasons or add incentives to the position starting out.

[PDXBaller]

Wait, am I the top DL prospect going into the NSFL draft?

You've been a top DL prospect the entire time...active DL is highly valued along with active DBs!

[majesiu]

You've been a top DL prospect the entire time...active DL is highly valued along with active DBs!

Yup, definitely yet another area of need, K/P also but it's whole another debate.

More about both Safeties and Corners tomorrow!

[PDXBaller]

Yup, definitely yet another area of need, K/P also but it's whole another debate.

More about both Safeties and Corners tomorrow!

I'm definitely hype for that article because of my recreate soon.... :dsfl:

[Phobospwns]

You've been a top DL prospect the entire time...active DL is highly valued along with active DBs!

Ha, frankly, I hadn't really paid much attention to the other players. Neat.