*NSFL Week 5 Watchability Rankings

[Modern_Duke]

You know the deal. Ranking of the week's games by how exciting they should be to watch. Based on the following:

Team Factor: Team 1's Win % x Team 2's Win % - Pretty straight forward measure of the quality of the two teams playing. Multiplying the percentages rather than adding them together should better account for how closely matched the two teams are as well, so like two 5-5 teams playing each other will get a higher score than an 8-2 team playing a 2-8 team.

Offensive Factor: There are probably a few really good ways to measure how exciting an offense is (yards per play, long touchdowns) but at the end of the day an exciting offense just scores a lot, so I'll just keep it nice and simple with the average of Team 1 and Team 2's points per game (divided by 100 to scale with the Team Factor).

Defensive Factor: Here I didn't want to just use points per game, because, well, go watch a game that ends 3-0 and tell me that it was constantly exciting. If you want excitement on defense, you have to look at the big plays like sacks and turnovers. I was previously using Sacks/Play and Turnovers/Play, but, well, this don't pay well enough for me to pull the data every time. So now I'm adjusting it to (Sacks+6*Turnovers) per game (divided by 100). Seems to work pretty much the same anyway.

X Factor: What is going on in this game that isn't covered in the stats? A big divisional rivalry? A lot of trash talk before the game? A playoff spot on the line? Here I will try to assign a number to express those intangible factors...So if this whole thing is going to be completely arbitrary anyway, why use statistics at all? Well, I don't know, that's just kind of my thing. Don't be mean.

I have mixed S18 stats in even more now. This time will be weighted 50% on S18 stats and 50% on S17.

5. Philadelphia Liberty at Chicago Butchers
Team Factor: 0.1313
Offensive Factor: .2082
Defensive Factor: .0885
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.4280
Notes: Philly, I'm sorry, but I'm sure you understand.

4. San Jose SaberCats at Arizona Outlaws
Team Factor: 0.2121
Offensive Factor: .2184
Defensive Factor: .1054
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.5359
Notes: I had to rush a bit through the Week 3 & 4 index, so I didn't have much time to look into X Factors. This week, though, I'm just struggling to find any noteworthy story lines. Let me know if I'm missing anything.

3. Baltimore Hawks at Austin Copperheads
Team Factor: 0.2166
Offensive Factor: .2693
Defensive Factor: .1080
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.5939
Notes: Baltimore is the highest scoring team in the league so far and by the numbers is basically in a tie with Yellowknife for the 'most watchable' team. Austin meanwhile is 1-3 but two of those losses were one possession games.

2. Yellowknife Wraiths at Colorado Yeti
Team Factor: 0.3020
Offensive Factor: .2517
Defensive Factor: .1460
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.6997
Notes: This is I believe the highest Defensive Factor so far, which makes sense considering how often these teams force turnovers. The Yeti had 5 interceptions and 2 defensive touchdowns last week alone.

1. New Orleans Second Line at Orange County Otters
Team Factor: 0.2746
Offensive Factor: .2671
Defensive Factor: .1119
X Factor: Gut Feeling +0.10
Watchability Index: 0.7536
Notes: Purely by the numbers, the Wraiths-Yeti game came out as the most watchable game. But even wearing my Yeti-colored glasses (wait, what?) that just didn't seem right. New Orleans has been a pleasant surprise and sits alone in first place in the ASFC, but now they have to travel to face the defending champs. Doesn't that just sound good?


As I mentioned, the previous article was rushed and not my best work. As an apology, here is some bonus content that I totally wasn't planning to do anyway:
The Top 5 Most Watchable Games So Far (At Least Until the BAL-YKW Rematch Next Week)
5. (Week 5) New Orleans Second Line at Orange County Otters: 0.7536
4. (Week 2) Chicago Butchers at Yellowknife Wraiths: 0.7783
3. (Week 4) Baltimore Hawks at Chicago Butchers: 0.8073
2. (Week 1) Yellowknife Wraiths at Baltimore Hawks: 0.8741
1. (Week 4) Arizona Outlaws at Orange County Otters: 0.9528

[Frostbite]

I see how it is

[Ben]

This is really cool! I hope you keep it up all season

[slothfacekilla]

Great stuff, this will be a big game for NOLA