Week five of the NSFL is in the books and yet another community survey has been filled out to provide this week’s power rankings. This week had several big matchups, most notably New Orleans visiting Orange County and Philadelphia and Chicago squaring off after their trade that has been heavily scrutinized recently. Without further ado, here are this week’s rankings with some totally unnecessary commentary from yours truly. Thank you to the nine people that are not me who took the time to fill out the survey. Once again, if you are interested in participating in these surveys, let me know and I can message it to you to ensure you have access.
The honor of being last place and first mentioned in this list this week belongs once again to San Jose. San Jose is one of three teams that have four losses and has is the only team to have avoided scoring more than 100 points on offense, although their defense has allowed fewer points than the entire NSFC with only 120 surrendered. The SaberCats have consistently been towards the bottom in the polls and this week proved no different. San Jose received no votes higher than seventh and once again totaled the highest number of last place votes with four. Although the community has them in last, the slightly math based expected wins predictions have them up in eight with 4.4 wins. This is down from week four, in which they were seventh and expected to win five games. They have never placed higher than seventh so far in season 21. At this point, I’m not sure they ever will. They are the victims of a strong ASFC and their own offense.
Second to last this week belongs to Arizona. The Outlaws managed to pick up a win and left the league with no winless teams to speak of. That alone is worth celebrating. The fact that they lead the league in points allowed is something that only opposing offenses celebrate. They are one of three teams to receive a pair of last place votes and received four votes in ninth. When six of ten voters put you in the bottom two, you’re likely to end up there in the final rankings. Arizona wasn’t so lucky in the expected wins arena, where they finished dead last. They are expected to win only 3.4 games. This is a positive change from last week, after which they were expected to win only 2.3. Still, Arizona has been at the bottom of the expected wins list since week three after starting in sixth following their season opener.
Eighth place in this week’s rankings is a tie. Two teams finished with 18 points: Chicago and Philadelphia. They are the other two teams to receive a pair of last place votes. Chicago received more ninth place votes than Philadelphia, but one voter had the Butchers in fourth while Philadelphia received no votes higher than sixth. While Chicago had a voter placing them higher, Philadelphia’s votes were less dense in the lowest slots, elevating them into a tie. Following a highly criticized trade, Chicago pulled off the win in the matchup this week, elevating them above the Liberty in the win columns. Neither team looks particularly strong so far. Following their loss, Philadelphia dropped into ninth with 4.1 expected wins, down from 5.5 and fourth a week ago. Chicago rose from fifth place at 5.4 wins into fourth with 7.3. If this is to believed, they may have been right about needing only a few pieces to be a competitive team in a weak conference.
Yellowknife comes in sixth, receiving 40 points from the community vote. They received no votes lower than eighth but none higher than fifth. Oddly enough, the votes went perfectly in order with four voters putting them in fifth, three in sixth, two in seventh, and one in eighth. It’s rare to see the votes line up so nicely, especially with some of the frankly insane votes seen in the past. Yellowknife jumped up from eighth to seventh in the expected wins despite dropping from 4.9 to 4.7 expected wins. Yellowknife is in a three way tie for second in the NSFC, which is still very much up for grabs through five weeks. Yellowknife may still pose a challenge in the coming weeks.
Fifth place involves yet another tie: Austin and Colorado. Both teams own 56 points through this week. Colorado received one first place vote and votes as low as seventh. Austin, on the other hand, received no first place votes but none below sixth. Colorado is another team looking to capitalize and take advantage of the wide open race in the NSFC while Austin has the misfortune of being in a division with the juggernauts of New Orleans and Orange County. Colorado increased their expected win total by a full game, elevating themselves from ninth to sixth in the standings. Austin also increased their total, jumping from 5.3 to an even 6 and elevating their rank from sixth to fifth.
The top three remains largely the same this time around with Baltimore filling in the third spot, receiving 68 points. They received no first place votes, but none lower than fourth. Ultimately, six of ten voters placed them in the top three. Baltimore lost their first game this week, but still remains the clear favorite in the NSFC with double the wins of any challenger. There is still plenty of football to play, but Baltimore looks to be the strongest team on that side of the table through the first five games. Baltimore’s expected wins have also remained strong. Although they fell from a total of 9.3 wins to 8.4, they retain their third place rank. Baltimore seems the favorite to have the honor of losing to one of the dominant teams in the ASFC in the Ultimus.
Second place belongs to Orange County, who lost in a close contest to the Second Line. Oddly enough, Colorado received more votes than Orange County. Colorado was one of only two teams receiving a first place vote, leaving none for the runners-up in this week’s poll. The Otters received six second place votes, three in third, and one for fourth. That one fourth place vote is highly reactionary and probably should be ignored. Although the loss at home cost them first in the expected wins standings, their total dropped from 11.1 to 10.4 and they fall into second place, two full wins above third place Baltimore.
The winner of this week’s community poll is New Orleans. The Second Line received nine of ten first place votes with one second place votes. Following a victory at Orange County, the first place position is well deserved. I am honestly surprised they were not the unanimous choice. Despite the win, the expected win total for New Orleans actually dropped from 11 to 10.7, though the decline was small enough to keep them ahead of Orange County and move them into the top slot in the expected win standings.
The final results of this week’s power ranking survey are:
1. New Orleans
2. Orange County
3. Baltimore
T4. Colorado
T4. Austin
6. Yellowknife
T7. Chicago
T7. Philadelphia
9. Arizona
10. San Jose
The expected win totals following week five are:
1. New Orleans – 10.7
2. Orange County – 10.4
3. Baltimore – 8.4
4. Chicago – 7.3
5. Austin – 6.0
6. Colorado – 5.2
7. Yellowknife – 4.7
8. San Jose – 4.4
9. Philadelphia – 4.1
10. Arizona – 3.4
The moral of the story from the last few weeks is that things were incredibly tight in the middle of the pack. Although that didn’t matter much in the ASFC where New Orleans and Orange County have things in lockdown, the NSFC appeared wide open for the taking. Although the expected wins totals have started to separate out, three teams are tied for second at 2-3 and Philadelphia still has an outside chance at 1-4. Through only five games, any of those teams still have a realistic chance at taking the second place spot in the conference and advancing into the playoffs, where they will likely be immediately shot down by a relatively strong Baltimore team. That race appears far more exciting than the one in the ASFC, where it would take an impressive and likely historic collapse to knock one of New Orleans or Orange County out of the playoff picture. Still, I suppose anything is possible.
The honor of being last place and first mentioned in this list this week belongs once again to San Jose. San Jose is one of three teams that have four losses and has is the only team to have avoided scoring more than 100 points on offense, although their defense has allowed fewer points than the entire NSFC with only 120 surrendered. The SaberCats have consistently been towards the bottom in the polls and this week proved no different. San Jose received no votes higher than seventh and once again totaled the highest number of last place votes with four. Although the community has them in last, the slightly math based expected wins predictions have them up in eight with 4.4 wins. This is down from week four, in which they were seventh and expected to win five games. They have never placed higher than seventh so far in season 21. At this point, I’m not sure they ever will. They are the victims of a strong ASFC and their own offense.
Second to last this week belongs to Arizona. The Outlaws managed to pick up a win and left the league with no winless teams to speak of. That alone is worth celebrating. The fact that they lead the league in points allowed is something that only opposing offenses celebrate. They are one of three teams to receive a pair of last place votes and received four votes in ninth. When six of ten voters put you in the bottom two, you’re likely to end up there in the final rankings. Arizona wasn’t so lucky in the expected wins arena, where they finished dead last. They are expected to win only 3.4 games. This is a positive change from last week, after which they were expected to win only 2.3. Still, Arizona has been at the bottom of the expected wins list since week three after starting in sixth following their season opener.
Eighth place in this week’s rankings is a tie. Two teams finished with 18 points: Chicago and Philadelphia. They are the other two teams to receive a pair of last place votes. Chicago received more ninth place votes than Philadelphia, but one voter had the Butchers in fourth while Philadelphia received no votes higher than sixth. While Chicago had a voter placing them higher, Philadelphia’s votes were less dense in the lowest slots, elevating them into a tie. Following a highly criticized trade, Chicago pulled off the win in the matchup this week, elevating them above the Liberty in the win columns. Neither team looks particularly strong so far. Following their loss, Philadelphia dropped into ninth with 4.1 expected wins, down from 5.5 and fourth a week ago. Chicago rose from fifth place at 5.4 wins into fourth with 7.3. If this is to believed, they may have been right about needing only a few pieces to be a competitive team in a weak conference.
Yellowknife comes in sixth, receiving 40 points from the community vote. They received no votes lower than eighth but none higher than fifth. Oddly enough, the votes went perfectly in order with four voters putting them in fifth, three in sixth, two in seventh, and one in eighth. It’s rare to see the votes line up so nicely, especially with some of the frankly insane votes seen in the past. Yellowknife jumped up from eighth to seventh in the expected wins despite dropping from 4.9 to 4.7 expected wins. Yellowknife is in a three way tie for second in the NSFC, which is still very much up for grabs through five weeks. Yellowknife may still pose a challenge in the coming weeks.
Fifth place involves yet another tie: Austin and Colorado. Both teams own 56 points through this week. Colorado received one first place vote and votes as low as seventh. Austin, on the other hand, received no first place votes but none below sixth. Colorado is another team looking to capitalize and take advantage of the wide open race in the NSFC while Austin has the misfortune of being in a division with the juggernauts of New Orleans and Orange County. Colorado increased their expected win total by a full game, elevating themselves from ninth to sixth in the standings. Austin also increased their total, jumping from 5.3 to an even 6 and elevating their rank from sixth to fifth.
The top three remains largely the same this time around with Baltimore filling in the third spot, receiving 68 points. They received no first place votes, but none lower than fourth. Ultimately, six of ten voters placed them in the top three. Baltimore lost their first game this week, but still remains the clear favorite in the NSFC with double the wins of any challenger. There is still plenty of football to play, but Baltimore looks to be the strongest team on that side of the table through the first five games. Baltimore’s expected wins have also remained strong. Although they fell from a total of 9.3 wins to 8.4, they retain their third place rank. Baltimore seems the favorite to have the honor of losing to one of the dominant teams in the ASFC in the Ultimus.
Second place belongs to Orange County, who lost in a close contest to the Second Line. Oddly enough, Colorado received more votes than Orange County. Colorado was one of only two teams receiving a first place vote, leaving none for the runners-up in this week’s poll. The Otters received six second place votes, three in third, and one for fourth. That one fourth place vote is highly reactionary and probably should be ignored. Although the loss at home cost them first in the expected wins standings, their total dropped from 11.1 to 10.4 and they fall into second place, two full wins above third place Baltimore.
The winner of this week’s community poll is New Orleans. The Second Line received nine of ten first place votes with one second place votes. Following a victory at Orange County, the first place position is well deserved. I am honestly surprised they were not the unanimous choice. Despite the win, the expected win total for New Orleans actually dropped from 11 to 10.7, though the decline was small enough to keep them ahead of Orange County and move them into the top slot in the expected win standings.
The final results of this week’s power ranking survey are:
1. New Orleans
2. Orange County
3. Baltimore
T4. Colorado
T4. Austin
6. Yellowknife
T7. Chicago
T7. Philadelphia
9. Arizona
10. San Jose
The expected win totals following week five are:
1. New Orleans – 10.7
2. Orange County – 10.4
3. Baltimore – 8.4
4. Chicago – 7.3
5. Austin – 6.0
6. Colorado – 5.2
7. Yellowknife – 4.7
8. San Jose – 4.4
9. Philadelphia – 4.1
10. Arizona – 3.4
The moral of the story from the last few weeks is that things were incredibly tight in the middle of the pack. Although that didn’t matter much in the ASFC where New Orleans and Orange County have things in lockdown, the NSFC appeared wide open for the taking. Although the expected wins totals have started to separate out, three teams are tied for second at 2-3 and Philadelphia still has an outside chance at 1-4. Through only five games, any of those teams still have a realistic chance at taking the second place spot in the conference and advancing into the playoffs, where they will likely be immediately shot down by a relatively strong Baltimore team. That race appears far more exciting than the one in the ASFC, where it would take an impressive and likely historic collapse to knock one of New Orleans or Orange County out of the playoff picture. Still, I suppose anything is possible.
