*An Analysis of S21 NSFL QBs based on an algorithm

IHateBobNutting · 04-28-2020, 10:54 PM

I decided to rank the starting quarterbacks from Season 21 of the NSFL. I'll be using an algorithm I made up. Note: This isn't very scientific so don't take this too seriously. The Algorithm is Comp%/57.1+TIR/4.1+QBR/89.6+YPA/7.3+YPC/13.3 Comp% is Completion Percentage, TIR is Touchdown to Interception Ratio, QBR is Quarterback Rating, YPA is Yards per attempt, and YPC is yards per completion. In the event of a tiebreaker, the QB with the fewer Rushing Attempts will be ranked lower because I prefer pocket passers. I told you this wasn't very scientific. The numbers that the stats are divided by are the averages of the Quarterbacks in those stats. A score of 5 was supposed to be average but for some reason, the average is 5.07 and I'm not sure why. A higher score means a better Quarterback. Comp %, TIR, and QBR were rounded to the tenths position while YPA, YPC, and the scores were rounded to the hundredths position.

Below are the rankings of the Quarterbacks for each stat individually as well as by their scores.

Quarterbacks ranked by Comp% aka Completion Percentage
#1 Franklin Armstrong Orange County 63.5%
#2 Stan Francisco New Orleans 59.3%
#3 Cooter Bigsby Yellowknife 58.1%
#4 Easton Cole Austin 57.6%
#5 Rose Jenkins Chicago 57.6%
#6 Wolfie McDummy Colorado 56.2%
#7 Dan Wright San Jose 55.4%
#8 Jay Cue Arizona 55.1%
#9 Corvo Havran Baltimore 54.5%
#10 Brock Phoenix Phoenix 53.6%

Franklin Armstrong runs away with this one and the rest of the field is part of a fairly standard regression.

Quarterbacks ranked by TIR aka Touchdown to Interception Ratio
#1 Franklin Armstrong Orange County 12
#2 Corvo Havran Baltimore 8
#3 Stan Francisco New Orleans 4.6
T-#4 Rose Jenkins Chicago 3
T-#4 Wolfie McDummy Colorado 3
#6 Cooter Bigsby Yellowknife 2.9
#7 Jay Cue Arizona 2.1
#8 Easton Cole Austin 2
#9 Brock Phoenix Philadelphia 1.5
#10 Dan Wright San Jose 1.4

Franklin Armstrong runs away with this one as well. Corvo Havran doesn't have a great completion percentage but at least he doesn't throw interceptions. Stan Francisco has another strong showing placing the top 3 again. After that there's a standard regression.

Quarterbacks ranked by QBR aka Quarterback Rating
#1 Franklin Armstrong Orange County 109.3
#2 Corvo Havran Baltimore 100.4
#3 Stan Francisco New Orleans 98.8
#4 Cooter Bigsby Yellowknife 90.6
#5 Rose Jenkins Chicago 89.2
#6 Wolfie McDummy Colorado 86.3
#7 Easton Cole Austin 85.6
#8 Jay Cue Arizona 82.8
#9 Dan Wright San Jose 76.8
#10 Brock Phoenix Philadelphia 76.5

I'm sensing a pattern here. Franklin Armstrong is #1 again and Corvo Havran with his second 2nd place in a row. Stan Francisco places in the top 3 as he has in all rankings so far. There's an unusually staggered regression here as opposed to the normal progressive regression. I'm not sure what the reason for it is but I would guess it is due to the components which make up QBR of which I'm unaware.

Quarterbacks ranked by YPA aka Yards per Attempt
#1 Franklin Armstrong Orange County 8.20
#2 Stan Francisco New Orleans 8.02
#3 Yellowknife Cooter Bigsby 7.75
#4 Corvo Harvan Baltimore 7.70
#5 Easton Cole Austin 7.24
#6 Wolfie McDummy Colorado 7.01
#7 Jay Cue Arizona 7.00
#8 Rose Jenkins Chicago 6.99
#9 Brock Phoenix Philadelphia 6.70
#10 Dan Wright San Jose 6.62

Once again Franklin Armstrong finishes first and Stan Francisco finishes in the top 3. Corvo Harvan still has a good performance at 4. This is a very weird regression that I can't describe. #6-#8 are almost the same. I love that #7 has 7 YPA.

Quarterbacks ranked by YPC aka Yards per Completion
#1 Jay Cue Arizona 17.01
#2 Brock Phoenix Philadelphia 14.12
#3 Corvo Harvan Baltimore 13.53
#4 Cooter Bigsby Yellowknife 13.34
#5 Franklin Armstrong Orange County 12.91
#6 Easton Cole Austin 12.58
#7 Brock Phoenix Philadelphia 12.51
#8 Wolfie McDummy Colorado 12.46
#9 Rose Jenkins Chicago 12.14
#10 Dan Wright San Jose 11.96

This was really weird. The rankings don't connect with other stat's rankings and I considered tossing this stat out but I'd already done the effort of calculating it so I'm gonna keep it. Jay Cue runs away with it and then it's a somewhat steady regression from there.

Final Quarterback rankings based on my algorithm
The Best
#1 Franklin Armstrong Orange County 7.45
Franklin was far and away the best Quarterback last year. It's not close. The only stat he didn't place #1 in is YPC and that could be due to his arm, or due to the style of offense Orange County plays. He wasn't just #1 in 4 categories (Comp% aka Completion Percentage, TIR aka Touchdown to Interception Ratio, QBR aka Quarterback Rating, and YPA aka Yards per Attempt), he dominated in 3 of them (Comp%, TIR, and QBR). The gap between him and #2 was the biggest gap of any.
Close Behind-Elite
#2 Corvo Havran Baltimore 6.23
Corvo struggles with completing passes but he's not going to throw many interceptions. Placing second in TIR, QBR, and YPC offset his 9th rated Completion percentage. While #3 had better placements overall, Corvo's unbelievable TIR is why he scored higher.
#3 Stan Francisco New Orleans 5.47
I know that there's a sizeable gap between Havran and Francisco, but 1 these were the only 3 QBs with a score above 5, and 2 Stan was Top 3 in every category placing 2nd in Comp % and YPA and 3rd in TIR, QBR, and YPC. So there was no way I wasn't going to place him among the elite QBs in the league.
Average
I'm gonna run through these fairly quickly since average isn't exactly exciting to discuss.
#4 Cooter Bigsby Yellowknife 4.88 Stands out somewhat because he's above average in 4 out of 5 categories (Comp%, QBR, YPA, YPC)
#5 Jay Cue Arizona 4.72 He's only this high because of his crazy YPC. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve this spot just that he isn't very balanced.
#6 Rose Jenkins Chicago 4.69 Above Average Comp%
#7 Wolfie McDummy Colorado 4.66
#8 Easton Cole Austin 4.47 Above Average Comp%
Bottom Tier-The worst starting QBs but hey they're still starting QBs
#9 Brock Phoenix Philadelphia 4.09 Last in Comp% and QBR. YPC his only stat ranked higher than 9th.
#10 Dan Wright San Jose 4.05 Last in TIR, YPA, and YPC. Comp% his only star ranked higher than 9th.

In Conclusion, there were 3 Elite QBs, 5 Average QBs, and 2 Bad QBs. It was about what I expected but it was still fun to do.