Hi Everyone, I left my job at an accounting firm a month ago and have been missing doing random things in Excel. So, I decided to pull down the claim threads for all this season’s weekly ISFL predictions to offer some insights into the data. I am not sure if this really fits the spirit of “ISFL Media” so graders please let me know if this should be somewhere else. I am keeping this article simple for now as I plan on tracking this info for the rest of the season as well. Hopefully by the end of the season I will have some more meaningful analysis than the basics covered here. If anyone has any data points they would like to see or a method to discuss feel free to reach out.
Thanks,
Ajtigger
The Method
So as mentioned above, I pulled all the TPE given out on all the claim threads to see what I could do with the data in a simple excel workbook. I sorted each user who participated in a weekly claim thread and tracked how much TPE they earned per each simulation prediction thread. Once all the data was inputted and sorted, I simply made a pivot table to analyze a few things I wanted to look at.
The Results
Well I will spoil the main point right at the top by announcing what I was originally looking for. The top earner of TPE is the user CLG Rampage with an outstanding 18 TPE earned from predictions this season out of a possible 21 TPE. Second place is a tie between 4 other users who have earned 17 TPE so far this season. All of these users are performing significantly better than the average of 11 TPE per user (The mode number for TPE earned is 14). An interesting point to note is that of these 5 users, 4 of them have earned 4 or more TPE from the round up that happens every week (i.e. getting 1.5 TPE rounded to 2 for the update). Each of these players has earned significantly more TPE than the average user (2) on these round ups. In other words, most of the top 5 earners have had their TPE rounded up 4 or more times during the 6 claim threads for the 7-week period. Note that none of these top 5 earners are the most rounded up player. That honor belongs to user DNeon who has been rounded up on every single claim thread so far this season.
So now that we know who has the earned most TPE, the question becomes who has the most correct predictions over the season so far. Well this is a tie between once again CLG Rampage and timeconsumer. Both users have predicted 31 games correctly this season as opposed to the average of 20 games guessed correctly this season. Obviously as stated above, CLG Rampage has more TPE earned this season than timeconsumer (18 vs. 17). This is all down to the fact CLG has been rounded up in 5 of the 6 claims will timeconsumer has only been rounded up in 3 of the 6. In fact, throughout all the data, there are examples between two or more users have the same number of games correct but have a 1 TPE difference in the amount earned. Obviously, this is an extremely small difference, but I found it interesting none the less.
Other interesting tidbits I wanted to mention include the most successful and least successful weeks in terms of predictions. The least successful weeks were both weeks 1 and 7 with just over 2 correct predictions per user in each of those weeks. The most successful week title was shared between weeks 5 and 6. Both had users averaging over 3 correct predictions for each of the respective weeks. Please note I did not include the 3rd and 4th weeks in this analysis as they were combined in one thread. I will note that together these weeks averaged just under 3 correct predictions per user making them the potential middle ground of the season.
Thanks,
Ajtigger
The Method
So as mentioned above, I pulled all the TPE given out on all the claim threads to see what I could do with the data in a simple excel workbook. I sorted each user who participated in a weekly claim thread and tracked how much TPE they earned per each simulation prediction thread. Once all the data was inputted and sorted, I simply made a pivot table to analyze a few things I wanted to look at.
The Results
Well I will spoil the main point right at the top by announcing what I was originally looking for. The top earner of TPE is the user CLG Rampage with an outstanding 18 TPE earned from predictions this season out of a possible 21 TPE. Second place is a tie between 4 other users who have earned 17 TPE so far this season. All of these users are performing significantly better than the average of 11 TPE per user (The mode number for TPE earned is 14). An interesting point to note is that of these 5 users, 4 of them have earned 4 or more TPE from the round up that happens every week (i.e. getting 1.5 TPE rounded to 2 for the update). Each of these players has earned significantly more TPE than the average user (2) on these round ups. In other words, most of the top 5 earners have had their TPE rounded up 4 or more times during the 6 claim threads for the 7-week period. Note that none of these top 5 earners are the most rounded up player. That honor belongs to user DNeon who has been rounded up on every single claim thread so far this season.
So now that we know who has the earned most TPE, the question becomes who has the most correct predictions over the season so far. Well this is a tie between once again CLG Rampage and timeconsumer. Both users have predicted 31 games correctly this season as opposed to the average of 20 games guessed correctly this season. Obviously as stated above, CLG Rampage has more TPE earned this season than timeconsumer (18 vs. 17). This is all down to the fact CLG has been rounded up in 5 of the 6 claims will timeconsumer has only been rounded up in 3 of the 6. In fact, throughout all the data, there are examples between two or more users have the same number of games correct but have a 1 TPE difference in the amount earned. Obviously, this is an extremely small difference, but I found it interesting none the less.
Other interesting tidbits I wanted to mention include the most successful and least successful weeks in terms of predictions. The least successful weeks were both weeks 1 and 7 with just over 2 correct predictions per user in each of those weeks. The most successful week title was shared between weeks 5 and 6. Both had users averaging over 3 correct predictions for each of the respective weeks. Please note I did not include the 3rd and 4th weeks in this analysis as they were combined in one thread. I will note that together these weeks averaged just under 3 correct predictions per user making them the potential middle ground of the season.
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