@speculadora and the casino have started a really fun new feature this season: Daily Fantasy Football. For those who are unfamiliar with DFS, it is a fantasy football game which requires you to draft a team for just one week of football! You have a set salary cap to spend on players who you think will score a lot of points. The best players with the best matchups are going to be the most expensive. I have compiled a few tips in this article to help you be successful with your DFS lineup. Am I qualified to give expert advice? I got second out of twelve in the first week of this game, so I am either qualified or lucky.
1. Know the scoring system. This might seem obvious, but knowing the scoring system is vitally important and can give you an advantage over your competition. The scoring used in this format is pretty standard to typical fantasy football, but I want to point out a few things that might be beneficial to notice.
Passing yards are 0.04 pts/yard and rushing yards are 0.10 pts/yard. Passing TDs are 4 pts and rushing TDs are 6 pts. As is typical to most fantasy football, rushing yards and touchdowns (and receiving for that matter) are more valuable than passing yards to prevent QBs from being too dominant. This means that you can find sneaky value with a quarterback who also rushes the ball. Do you know who the league leader in rushing by a quarterback is? Probably McDummy or Banks, right? Wrong! Neither of those are even top 6 in rushing yards. It is actually Jay Cue by a large margin, who is averaging 50 rushing yards per game! That's five extra points every game that is probably not even on your radar, not including his two rushing touchdowns. Now, Arizona's recent trade for Hanyadi might hurt Cue's rushing statistics, but probably not by that much, as we have seen rushing quarterbacks succeed alongside great running backs.
Receptions are 0.5 points each. That's right! It's a half-PPR league. PPR has grown from a fad to a nearly standard option in fantasy football over the last five years. Finally, wide receivers can close the gap a little with running backs an a points per game basis. Because receptions are awarded points, obviously you should target players who get a lot of receptions. For example, let's compare two players. Sean Snyder is having a fantastic season for New York. He has 339 receiving yards and four touchdowns, but only 14 catches. That means he has fewer than three catches a game but is averaging 24.2 yards per reception! While that is admirable efficiency, we want volume in half-PPR leagues. On the other hand, we have Sean O'Leary, who has 372 receiving yards but only 2 touchdowns. However, he has 27 catches. You would think it would be clearly better to take the guy with 4 touchdowns but let's do the math.
Snyder: 14 catches (7 pts) + 339 receiving yards (33.9 pts) + four touchdowns (24 pts) = 64.9 points.
O'Leary: 27 catches (13.5 pts) + 372 receiving yards (37.2 pts) + two touchdowns (12 pts) = 62.7 points.
Additionally, given that touchdowns are typically somewhat luck-based where as target share and yardage is much more consistent, if we take away the touchdowns, O'Leary has a 10 point advantage. Lesson: go for the high-volume receivers who have large target shares, not the big play specialists.
Another point to consider related to half-PPR: running backs who catch the ball are incredibly valuable. Just like quarterbacks have hidden value as rushers, running backs who can catch are very valuable in this system. Owens, Kane-Maika'i, and Skyline have all caught more than 20 balls already, and will get you an extra 5-8 pts as receivers in addition to their RB roles. Everyone knows about Kane-Maika'i who is leading all running backs in fantasy points right now, and we presume Skyline will be an absolute monster the rest of the season with Hanyadi out of the way. But keep an eye out for Owens who not only leads the league in rushing but also has caught 23 receptions already. He's the centerpiece of that young offense and should be a great DFS play most weeks.
2. Play the matchups, not the index. In other words, do not just pick the top players on the board. Be strategic. Philly, New Orleans, and New York are all allowing 30 points a game, so look for players in matchups against those teams. We all know home field advantage is significant in this league, so look for quarterbacks that are at home. As a general rule of thumb: play quarterbacks and running backs that are favorites in their games and play wide receivers on underdog squads. Favorites tend to score more touchdowns (obviously) which are the bread and butter of quarterbacks. Volume is a more significant factor for running backs and receivers, and teams tend to rush more when they are ahead, and pass more when they are behind. Take advantage of that. Use the casino spreads to figure out who the big favorites and underdogs are if you are unsure.
3. Build your team around a stud. In games with salary caps, it is tempting to spread your cash around so that you have a lot of good players but no great ones. Instead, identify one or two expensive players who you think will have great games and spend the cash for them. You can find depth at a lot of positions for lower cap hits. Which brings me to my next point:
4. Spend money on shallow position groups and look for bargains at deep position groups. As I noted a couple months ago in my
league trends article running back by committee has grown increasingly popular to the point where the bell cow primary back is nearly extinct. There are maybe five or six elite running back options, so you probably need to spend the money to get a couple good running backs. Tight end is also quite shallow, with only four tight ends averaging over fifty yards a game. Getting a top tight end is a must to score well in this format. You can spend a lot of cap on Phillips and pretty much guarantee you will get great production, or you can be a little stingier and go for Batista, Angler, or Evans. You can easily save money at the other two positions, quarterback and wide receiver. Quarterback is especially deep with very little separation between the 2nd best QB and the 6th. Unless you are paying the premium for Cue in a home game and building your roster around him, it is best to take a shot on an inexpensive option who is a favorite at home. Wide receivers can also have some bargains. You need to start three of them so this is a great chance to save some money. Maybe grab one of the top options, but also find some high-volume guys who have low price tags. Look out for guys like Howlett, Jeeta, and O'Leary who get a lot of points just from receptions. If you get a little touchdown luck with them then all of a sudden you are in for a big scoring day. Speaking of quarterbacks and wide receivers:
5. Implement the stacking strategy. Stacking is a term used often in daily fantasy circles which just means this: select and quarterback and receiver on the same team. This is especially effective in a top heavy payout format such as this one, though it is more risky. Stacking a quarterback and a receiver from the same team is putting a lot of eggs in one basket. If it does not pay off you are in trouble, but it can be incredibly rewarding, as every completion between the two is essentially doubled for your team. Since only the top few entries get paid, you want to take a chance at being at the very top of the pool. Being a steady sixth place does not win you much, if any, money. Stacking is a great way to rocket to the top of the scoreboards. For example, if you decided to start William Lim in week 3 in a home game against Yellowknife, you would have gotten 26 pts for his 100 yard, 2 TD performance. Pretty great, right? But if you stacked Lim alongside McDummy as your quarterback, you also got 26 points from Wolfie. If you happened to start both of those players and got 20 points just from the two TDs from McDummy to Lim, chances are you would take a top three finish that week. So, since you have to start three receivers anyway, just grab the top receiver for whichever quarterback you pick.
6. Be a contrarian. Do not pick all the same players that everyone else is going with. You do not necessarily know who everyone else will choose, but take a chance on a player who you think is not on most people's radar. If you selected Richard Gilbert in week 5 (which no one did) his monstrous four touchdown performance would have won the entire pool for you, and you would not have had to compete with any other Gilbert owners. Now obviously, you do not want to pick risky players with all your picks. Do not start Keynel McZeal and Buster Bawls as your two running backs. But swinging for the fences with your flex slot or third receiver slot can be incredibly rewarding if you choose the sleeper who has a breakout performance.
I hope this article was a good introduction to daily fantasy sports in general and gave you some strategies for approaching the game if you choose to play. It is a great idea by the casino team and I hope this article will encourage more people to try it out!
1. Know the scoring system. This might seem obvious, but knowing the scoring system is vitally important and can give you an advantage over your competition. The scoring used in this format is pretty standard to typical fantasy football, but I want to point out a few things that might be beneficial to notice.
Passing yards are 0.04 pts/yard and rushing yards are 0.10 pts/yard. Passing TDs are 4 pts and rushing TDs are 6 pts. As is typical to most fantasy football, rushing yards and touchdowns (and receiving for that matter) are more valuable than passing yards to prevent QBs from being too dominant. This means that you can find sneaky value with a quarterback who also rushes the ball. Do you know who the league leader in rushing by a quarterback is? Probably McDummy or Banks, right? Wrong! Neither of those are even top 6 in rushing yards. It is actually Jay Cue by a large margin, who is averaging 50 rushing yards per game! That's five extra points every game that is probably not even on your radar, not including his two rushing touchdowns. Now, Arizona's recent trade for Hanyadi might hurt Cue's rushing statistics, but probably not by that much, as we have seen rushing quarterbacks succeed alongside great running backs.
Receptions are 0.5 points each. That's right! It's a half-PPR league. PPR has grown from a fad to a nearly standard option in fantasy football over the last five years. Finally, wide receivers can close the gap a little with running backs an a points per game basis. Because receptions are awarded points, obviously you should target players who get a lot of receptions. For example, let's compare two players. Sean Snyder is having a fantastic season for New York. He has 339 receiving yards and four touchdowns, but only 14 catches. That means he has fewer than three catches a game but is averaging 24.2 yards per reception! While that is admirable efficiency, we want volume in half-PPR leagues. On the other hand, we have Sean O'Leary, who has 372 receiving yards but only 2 touchdowns. However, he has 27 catches. You would think it would be clearly better to take the guy with 4 touchdowns but let's do the math.
Snyder: 14 catches (7 pts) + 339 receiving yards (33.9 pts) + four touchdowns (24 pts) = 64.9 points.
O'Leary: 27 catches (13.5 pts) + 372 receiving yards (37.2 pts) + two touchdowns (12 pts) = 62.7 points.
Additionally, given that touchdowns are typically somewhat luck-based where as target share and yardage is much more consistent, if we take away the touchdowns, O'Leary has a 10 point advantage. Lesson: go for the high-volume receivers who have large target shares, not the big play specialists.
Another point to consider related to half-PPR: running backs who catch the ball are incredibly valuable. Just like quarterbacks have hidden value as rushers, running backs who can catch are very valuable in this system. Owens, Kane-Maika'i, and Skyline have all caught more than 20 balls already, and will get you an extra 5-8 pts as receivers in addition to their RB roles. Everyone knows about Kane-Maika'i who is leading all running backs in fantasy points right now, and we presume Skyline will be an absolute monster the rest of the season with Hanyadi out of the way. But keep an eye out for Owens who not only leads the league in rushing but also has caught 23 receptions already. He's the centerpiece of that young offense and should be a great DFS play most weeks.
2. Play the matchups, not the index. In other words, do not just pick the top players on the board. Be strategic. Philly, New Orleans, and New York are all allowing 30 points a game, so look for players in matchups against those teams. We all know home field advantage is significant in this league, so look for quarterbacks that are at home. As a general rule of thumb: play quarterbacks and running backs that are favorites in their games and play wide receivers on underdog squads. Favorites tend to score more touchdowns (obviously) which are the bread and butter of quarterbacks. Volume is a more significant factor for running backs and receivers, and teams tend to rush more when they are ahead, and pass more when they are behind. Take advantage of that. Use the casino spreads to figure out who the big favorites and underdogs are if you are unsure.
3. Build your team around a stud. In games with salary caps, it is tempting to spread your cash around so that you have a lot of good players but no great ones. Instead, identify one or two expensive players who you think will have great games and spend the cash for them. You can find depth at a lot of positions for lower cap hits. Which brings me to my next point:
4. Spend money on shallow position groups and look for bargains at deep position groups. As I noted a couple months ago in my
league trends article running back by committee has grown increasingly popular to the point where the bell cow primary back is nearly extinct. There are maybe five or six elite running back options, so you probably need to spend the money to get a couple good running backs. Tight end is also quite shallow, with only four tight ends averaging over fifty yards a game. Getting a top tight end is a must to score well in this format. You can spend a lot of cap on Phillips and pretty much guarantee you will get great production, or you can be a little stingier and go for Batista, Angler, or Evans. You can easily save money at the other two positions, quarterback and wide receiver. Quarterback is especially deep with very little separation between the 2nd best QB and the 6th. Unless you are paying the premium for Cue in a home game and building your roster around him, it is best to take a shot on an inexpensive option who is a favorite at home. Wide receivers can also have some bargains. You need to start three of them so this is a great chance to save some money. Maybe grab one of the top options, but also find some high-volume guys who have low price tags. Look out for guys like Howlett, Jeeta, and O'Leary who get a lot of points just from receptions. If you get a little touchdown luck with them then all of a sudden you are in for a big scoring day. Speaking of quarterbacks and wide receivers:
5. Implement the stacking strategy. Stacking is a term used often in daily fantasy circles which just means this: select and quarterback and receiver on the same team. This is especially effective in a top heavy payout format such as this one, though it is more risky. Stacking a quarterback and a receiver from the same team is putting a lot of eggs in one basket. If it does not pay off you are in trouble, but it can be incredibly rewarding, as every completion between the two is essentially doubled for your team. Since only the top few entries get paid, you want to take a chance at being at the very top of the pool. Being a steady sixth place does not win you much, if any, money. Stacking is a great way to rocket to the top of the scoreboards. For example, if you decided to start William Lim in week 3 in a home game against Yellowknife, you would have gotten 26 pts for his 100 yard, 2 TD performance. Pretty great, right? But if you stacked Lim alongside McDummy as your quarterback, you also got 26 points from Wolfie. If you happened to start both of those players and got 20 points just from the two TDs from McDummy to Lim, chances are you would take a top three finish that week. So, since you have to start three receivers anyway, just grab the top receiver for whichever quarterback you pick.
6. Be a contrarian. Do not pick all the same players that everyone else is going with. You do not necessarily know who everyone else will choose, but take a chance on a player who you think is not on most people's radar. If you selected Richard Gilbert in week 5 (which no one did) his monstrous four touchdown performance would have won the entire pool for you, and you would not have had to compete with any other Gilbert owners. Now obviously, you do not want to pick risky players with all your picks. Do not start Keynel McZeal and Buster Bawls as your two running backs. But swinging for the fences with your flex slot or third receiver slot can be incredibly rewarding if you choose the sleeper who has a breakout performance.
I hope this article was a good introduction to daily fantasy sports in general and gave you some strategies for approaching the game if you choose to play. It is a great idea by the casino team and I hope this article will encourage more people to try it out!
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