Its that time of the year again. Time for joy and excitement as everyone looks forward to the playoffs and waits to see if their goal to reach the Ultimus is in reach or if all of their hard work has fallen flat for another season. To help everyone get an idea of if their dreams are just memes, I decided to do a writeup to give everyone an idea of where they stand and what they need to do to make that final playoff push.
I’ll be starting by looking at the ASFC. Mostly because it’ll be easier to narrow down and the NSFC is a complete cluster right now. I will try to get them done before the week 10 games, but chances are I don’t touch those until Thursday. Maybe then I’ll have an easier time sorting it all!
Disclaimer: When mentioning opposition records, “or worse” is implied.
ASFC
Otters:
Playoff Status: Locked in. What do the Otters need to do to make the S19 playoffs? Absolutely nothing. At 8-1, the Otters can lose all four of their remaining games and make it to the playoff dance. They’ve already received their invite and everything. So what is left for them? Why keep pushing? Homefield advantage, that’s why. Due to them having playoffs already locked in, I’m going to do seedings for OCO and only OCO.
ASFC 1st Seed: This team has guaranteed themselves at least one home game in the playoffs. What does this team need to do to lock in the ASFC first seed?
Option 1: Just win a game.
Finish 1-3
Option 2: A single New Orleans loss.
Finish 0-4
NOLA 3-1
With their 6-1 conference record, even if New Orleans was to tie overall, the Second Line cannot have a better conference record than the Otters. One game is all they need to lock in homefield through to the Ultimus.
NSFL Seeding: But what do they need to lock in the Ultimus homefield? To get the number one spot in the league, the Otters have multiple paths.
Option 1: The obvious path is simply win three of their remaining four games. At 11-2, no one else will be able to match them in record.
Finish 3-1
Option 2: Alternatively, they can win only two of their remaining games as long as one of those is their road trip to Yellowknife in week 12. This would put them at 10-3, meaning the Hawks could potentially tie in total record, but OCO would have the head to head.
Finish 2-2
Beat YKW
Option 3: A single OCO win being over YKW and a single loss for Baltimore. This would leave the potential for a four way tie at the top of the standings, but OCO would have the tiebreaker over all three opponents.
Finish 1-3
Beat YKW
Hawks 3-1
Option 4: OCO loses out, but NOLA loses a single game, Baltimore loses two games, and YKW loses three. For OCO to lose out, they’d need to lose to YKW which would give YKW the head to head. For that reason, if OCO were to lose out the only game YKW would be allowed to win is against OCO themselves. This alternative would also leave Baltimore and NOLA tied with OCO, but OCO would have the tiebreaker over both.
Finish 0-4
NOLA 3-1
Hawks 2-2
YKW 1-3
Second Line:
Playoff Status: In the hunt. The second line have more ways into the playoffs than they have out of the playoffs, so let's look at their options.
Option 1: Win any two games. With three home games and a road trip to Chicago, winning two of those makes it so SJS can win out and only tie the Second Line who would make the playoffs due to conference record.
Finish 2-2
Option 2: Win a single remaining game with Arizona or SJS losing two of theirs. At 6-7, should one of the other two teams drop two of their four remaining games, they cannot even tie with the Second Line. In this scenario, Austin would have a chance to tie in total record, but lose out in tiebreakers.
Finish 1-3
Arizona 2-2 or SJS 2-2
Option 3: Beat Austin with Arizona losing only a single game. Again, because of conference record should New Orleans win this game and Arizona goes 3-1, they’ll tie with New Orleans who will make it in due to conference record.
Finish 1-3
Beat Austin
Arizona 3-1
Option 4: Win any single game with SJS losing one game. Due to conference record, should SJS go 3-1 they’ll tie with New Orleans who will beat them out for the playoff spot.
Finish 1-3
SJS 3-1
Option 5: Lose out, but Arizona drops three and Austin loses a single game. Should Arizona lose three of their remaining four, New Orleans makes it in by default. Should Austin drop a single game, they’ll only tie with New Orleans who wins out due to head to head.
Finish 0-4
Arizona 1-3
Austin 3-1
Option 6: Lose out, but SJS drops two games and Austin drops one. Should the Second line go 0-4 and SJS go 2-2, New Orleans makes it in due to the conference record tiebreaker.
Finish 0-4
SJS 2-2
Austin 3-1
Outlaws:
Playoff Status: In the hunt. Currently in third place, the Outlaws are far from out of the woods in this one. They certainly have their options available to them though! Due to head to heads and conference record, they currently beat SJS in any tie breakers while losing to NOLA or Austin.
Option 1: Win out. By winning out, they would be 4-4 in the conference and win any tie breakers with SJS. Austin wouldn’t be a factor.
Finish 4-0
Option 2: Arizona can drop one game and still have multiple ways in. NOLA goes winless and SJS or Austin drop a single game. This one gives Arizona the 6-7 head to head tiebreaker over SJS and keeps NOLA and Austin a game behind them.
Finish 3-1
NOLA 0-4
SJS 3-1 or Austin 3-1
Option 3: Arizona has a tougher schedule ahead with two road games against tough opponents, so 2-2 is not unrealistic for this team. Even then, they still have a chance to grab their spot as long as SJS and Austin both slip up as much as they do. That said, any scenario in which Arizona ties their final four games with SJS and Austin still gets them in.
Finish 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, or 0-4
SJS and Austin 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, or 0-4 (Matching Arizona record)
Option 4: This one is pretty obvious. Simply win one game more than Austin and SJS wins to close out the season.
Finish 3-1, 2-2, or 1-3
SJS and Austin 2-2, 1-3, or 0-4 (One win less than Arizona)
Sabercats
Playoff Status: In the hunt. The Sabercats have been a bit of a surprise. Due to a mixture of their overachieving according to most and a couple of other teams underachieving, they are still in the mix. Due to head to heads and conference record, they currently win any tie breaker with Austin while losing to both New Orleans and Arizona. So how do they get there?
Option 1: Finish the season 4-0 with Arizona dropping a single game or New Orleans dropping three of their last four. This would put them out of reach of whichever team meets that criteria and removes Austin from the equation entirely.
Finish 4-0
Arizona 3-1 or New Orleans 1-3
Option 2: There is a way for the Sabercats to drop a game and still make the playoffs. It involves massive slips by two other teams, but its not at all impossible. At 3-1, Austin still doesn’t fit in the equation since they would lose the tiebreaker with SJS.
Finish 3-1
Arizona 2-2 or New Orleans 0-4
Option 3: At 2-2, SJS can still make it but it gets a lot stickier. New Orleans now beats SJS in any tie breaker they’re involved in and now Austin enters the fray with potential to knock out the Sabercats. This would leave them one game ahead of Arizona while remaining tied with Austin who they would beat in a tiebreaker.
Finish 2-2
Arizona 1-3 and Austin 3-1
Option 4: 1-3 provides a slim chance for SJS still, but this is the last point where they are still alive. Should they go winless, they can no longer make it to the playoff party due to losing the head to head to Arizona.
Finish 1-3
Arizona 0-4 and Austin 2-2
Copperheads
Playoff Status: In the hunt. Austin is still in the race, but they’ve fallen behind and their path will not be easy at all. They need teams to lose to have any hope and their fate is far from in their own hands. Their biggest advantage? They hold a head to head tiebreaker over Arizona.
Option 1: Austin wins out and goes 4-0. Then two other things have to happen. NOLA loses out 0-4, Arizona goes 3-1, or SJS goes 2-2. Two of those three happen and Austin still makes it in.
Finish 4-0
Arizona 3-1, SJS 2-2, NOLA 0-4 (Two of three)
Option 2: If Austin drops any of their remaining games, things get tighter. If they go 3-1, they still have to win one more game than Arizona and two more than SJS.
Finish 3-1
Arizona 2-2
SJS 1-3
Option 3: Austin’s final chance if they lose two games comes if Arizona and SJS only win a single game combined for the rest of the season. That will be a tough ask.
Finish 2-2
Arizona 1-3
SJS 0-4
NSFC
Wraiths
Playoff Status: In the hunt. The NSFC is absolute chaos right now and playoff spots are still anyone’s game. There is a chance the top team in the NSFC misses the playoffs still and still a chance the bottom team squeaks in. It's hard to even start here, so let's just dive in. How do the Wraiths currently make it into playoffs? They have conference record currently over the Hawks, Yeti, and Liberty but Liberty beats them in the head to head, making their path more difficult.
Option 1: Win out. With the Wraiths currently one game ahead of third place, winning out is their easiest path to a playoff lock. More than that though, 1ith three wins, the Wraiths still have a lot of options. They are currently 5-3 in the conference and have played all their conference games. Due to Colorado and Philly both playing against the Hawks, there is no way for all three to win out with their schedule. The Wraiths will have the conference tiebreaker over two of the three no matter what.
Finish 4-0 or 3-1
Option 2: With only winning half of their remaining games, things get tighter for the Wraiths. It’s still fully possible for them to make it with some things bouncing their way. Hawks 2-2 (one conference loss), Yeti 3-1, Liberty 2-2. One of those scenarios would be needed to get into the dance.
Finish 2-2
Yeti 3-1, Hawks 2-2, or Liberty 2-2
Option 4: While finishing out 1-3 on the season doesn’t look pretty for one of the favorites in this league, it doesn’t eliminate them from contention. There remains three scenarios where they get in with just a single win.
Finish 1-3
Yeti 2-2, Hawks 1-3, or Liberty 1-3
Option 5: There are a couple scenarios where the Wraiths make it in without winning a game, but it is absurdly convoluted. Due to the Hawks playing both the Yeti and the Liberty, at least one of these remaining teams has to win a game. In all of our other scenarios, it was entirely possible for all three of the options to happen. In this one, not all three can exist at once.
Finish 0-4
Yeti 1-3, Hawks 0-4, or Liberty 0-4
Hawks
Playoff Status: In the hunt. Due to how tight the race is here in the NSFC, it will be hard to judge the Hawks. They currently lose all tiebreakers to YKW, but due to still having to play the Liberty and Yeti once more this season, they hold no tie breakers over those two teams. It opens up a lot of scenarios for the Hawks.
Option 1: Win out. Much like the Wraiths, the Hawks are one game up in the conference and if they can close out, they make it in. Due to the nature of going 3-1, they will have to win at least one conference game. This would give them the conference tiebreaker over Liberty even if they should tie the series as well and lock them in.
Finish 4-0 or 3-1
Option 2: Beat the Liberty and go 2-2. Having head to head and conference wins automatically locks them in over Philadelphia.
2-2
Beat Liberty
Option 3: Beat the Yeti and go 2-2. Again, this would give the Hawks both head to head and conference lead over their opposition, locking them in.
2-2
Beat Yeti
Option 4: Assuming that the Hawks go 2-2 and lose both of their conference games, things get tighter for them and make it much more difficult to slide in. They would no longer have a chance at a tiebreaker with the Yeti and should they tie with Philadelphia, it comes down to points for. Philadelphia currently leads in points for.
Finish 2-2
Wraiths 1-3, Yeti 2-2, or Liberty 2-2
Option 5: This is where things get a little crazy because the Hawks play both the Yeti and the Liberty. For the Hawks to get in at 1-3 their one win would have to be over either the Yeti or the Liberty or the Wraiths would need to go 0-4.
Finish 1-3
Wraiths 0-4 or Yeti/Liberty 0-4 (Both cannot go 0-4 in this scenario because one has beat the Hawks to give them 3 losses)
Yeti:
Playoff Status: In the hunt. Have I mentioned how much I hate this conference and how close it is? Having the head to head tiebreaker over the Liberty at least makes this a little easier than the Hawks.
Option 1: Win out. Because they have the head to head over Philadelphia, even if both teams went 4-0, the Yeti would slip in past the Liberty for the third spot.
Finish 4-0
Option 2: Beat the Hawks and have the Hawks lose to the Liberty. This scenario gives the conference tiebreaker to the Yeti and gives them a little more flexibility in what they can do.
Finish 2-2
Beat Hawks
Hawks lose to Liberty
Option 3: Should the Hawks win either of their conference games, dropping even a single game makes things far more convoluted for the Yeti because it allows the Liberty back in with a chance to eliminate them. YKW will have the head to head and the Hawks currently have conference lead.
Finish 3-1
Wraiths 1-3, Hawks 1-3, or Liberty 3-1
Option 4: This is the end of the line for the Yeti should the Hawks scenario not play out. Any worse than 2-2 and they will no longer be able to slip in. Due to the implied loss to the Hawks, they’ll no longer be able to beat them out. This leaves a narrow window for the Yeti.
Finish 2-2
Wraiths 0-4 or Liberty 2-2
Liberty
Playoff Status: In the hunt. Of the four primary teams, Philadelphia needs the most help. They currently have the worst conference record of the four and currently loses the head to head against the Yeti. They do have head to head over the Wraiths though, so that could count for something!
Option 1: Even if they were to win out, the Liberty will need some help. They need people to lose so they may slip into the big games of the season. Even though they have the points for over the Hawks, the Hawks need to lose both conference games to give the Liberty the chance to get there. Which means a 3-1 Hawks eliminates the Liberty every time. They absolutely need the Yeti to drop a game due to the head to head tiebreaker not being in their favor and the Wraiths are still one game up.
Finish 4-0
Wraiths 3-1, Hawks 2-2, or Yeti 3-1
Option 2: When they start dropping games, things get significantly harder for the Liberty. They need losses on their conference to really start piling up.
Finish 3-1
Wraiths 2-2, Hawks 1-3, or Yeti 2-2
Option 3: Not much changes when they drop to 2-2. The more losses they have, the more desperately the need the other teams to drop games. Unfortunately, worse than 2-2 and the Liberty can no longer make it in. Due to the Yeti and Hawks playing each other, one of them has to have a win. Since both can’t be 0-4, a 1-3 Liberty is eliminated.
Finish 2-2
Wraiths 1-3, Hawks 0-4, or Yeti 1-3
Butchers
Playoff Status: Barely clinging. The Butchers aren’t completely eliminated, but they would need a ton of help to make it in. Due to conference standings, they can no longer compete with YKW or the Hawks. But should both of the other two completely fall apart and Chicago win out, there is a chance.
Option 1: Oof. That is really all there is to be said. Lucky the Liberty and Yeti don’t face each so this scenario is remotely possible.
Finish 4-0
Yeti 0-4
Liberty 0-4
I hope you guys all enjoyed this! I did it purely for the fun of it and I realise there is a lot of fine tuning you can do. There are scenarios involving ties and such that I just didn’t have the time and patience to work through. I was just going through earlier trying to decide which games were important and who I should be cheering against for NOLA to make it in and thought I could make a loose guide everyone could follow while I was at it! I may go through and strike through scenarios as the season plays out so people can continue checking in if they so wish! Good luck to everyone and may the odds be in your favor!
I’ll be starting by looking at the ASFC. Mostly because it’ll be easier to narrow down and the NSFC is a complete cluster right now. I will try to get them done before the week 10 games, but chances are I don’t touch those until Thursday. Maybe then I’ll have an easier time sorting it all!
Disclaimer: When mentioning opposition records, “or worse” is implied.
ASFC
Otters:
Playoff Status: Locked in. What do the Otters need to do to make the S19 playoffs? Absolutely nothing. At 8-1, the Otters can lose all four of their remaining games and make it to the playoff dance. They’ve already received their invite and everything. So what is left for them? Why keep pushing? Homefield advantage, that’s why. Due to them having playoffs already locked in, I’m going to do seedings for OCO and only OCO.
ASFC 1st Seed: This team has guaranteed themselves at least one home game in the playoffs. What does this team need to do to lock in the ASFC first seed?
Option 1: Just win a game.
Finish 1-3
Option 2: A single New Orleans loss.
Finish 0-4
NOLA 3-1
With their 6-1 conference record, even if New Orleans was to tie overall, the Second Line cannot have a better conference record than the Otters. One game is all they need to lock in homefield through to the Ultimus.
NSFL Seeding: But what do they need to lock in the Ultimus homefield? To get the number one spot in the league, the Otters have multiple paths.
Option 1: The obvious path is simply win three of their remaining four games. At 11-2, no one else will be able to match them in record.
Finish 3-1
Option 2: Alternatively, they can win only two of their remaining games as long as one of those is their road trip to Yellowknife in week 12. This would put them at 10-3, meaning the Hawks could potentially tie in total record, but OCO would have the head to head.
Finish 2-2
Beat YKW
Option 3: A single OCO win being over YKW and a single loss for Baltimore. This would leave the potential for a four way tie at the top of the standings, but OCO would have the tiebreaker over all three opponents.
Finish 1-3
Beat YKW
Hawks 3-1
Option 4: OCO loses out, but NOLA loses a single game, Baltimore loses two games, and YKW loses three. For OCO to lose out, they’d need to lose to YKW which would give YKW the head to head. For that reason, if OCO were to lose out the only game YKW would be allowed to win is against OCO themselves. This alternative would also leave Baltimore and NOLA tied with OCO, but OCO would have the tiebreaker over both.
Finish 0-4
NOLA 3-1
Hawks 2-2
YKW 1-3
Second Line:
Playoff Status: In the hunt. The second line have more ways into the playoffs than they have out of the playoffs, so let's look at their options.
Option 1: Win any two games. With three home games and a road trip to Chicago, winning two of those makes it so SJS can win out and only tie the Second Line who would make the playoffs due to conference record.
Finish 2-2
Option 2: Win a single remaining game with Arizona or SJS losing two of theirs. At 6-7, should one of the other two teams drop two of their four remaining games, they cannot even tie with the Second Line. In this scenario, Austin would have a chance to tie in total record, but lose out in tiebreakers.
Finish 1-3
Arizona 2-2 or SJS 2-2
Option 3: Beat Austin with Arizona losing only a single game. Again, because of conference record should New Orleans win this game and Arizona goes 3-1, they’ll tie with New Orleans who will make it in due to conference record.
Finish 1-3
Beat Austin
Arizona 3-1
Option 4: Win any single game with SJS losing one game. Due to conference record, should SJS go 3-1 they’ll tie with New Orleans who will beat them out for the playoff spot.
Finish 1-3
SJS 3-1
Option 5: Lose out, but Arizona drops three and Austin loses a single game. Should Arizona lose three of their remaining four, New Orleans makes it in by default. Should Austin drop a single game, they’ll only tie with New Orleans who wins out due to head to head.
Finish 0-4
Arizona 1-3
Austin 3-1
Option 6: Lose out, but SJS drops two games and Austin drops one. Should the Second line go 0-4 and SJS go 2-2, New Orleans makes it in due to the conference record tiebreaker.
Finish 0-4
SJS 2-2
Austin 3-1
Outlaws:
Playoff Status: In the hunt. Currently in third place, the Outlaws are far from out of the woods in this one. They certainly have their options available to them though! Due to head to heads and conference record, they currently beat SJS in any tie breakers while losing to NOLA or Austin.
Option 1: Win out. By winning out, they would be 4-4 in the conference and win any tie breakers with SJS. Austin wouldn’t be a factor.
Finish 4-0
Option 2: Arizona can drop one game and still have multiple ways in. NOLA goes winless and SJS or Austin drop a single game. This one gives Arizona the 6-7 head to head tiebreaker over SJS and keeps NOLA and Austin a game behind them.
Finish 3-1
NOLA 0-4
SJS 3-1 or Austin 3-1
Option 3: Arizona has a tougher schedule ahead with two road games against tough opponents, so 2-2 is not unrealistic for this team. Even then, they still have a chance to grab their spot as long as SJS and Austin both slip up as much as they do. That said, any scenario in which Arizona ties their final four games with SJS and Austin still gets them in.
Finish 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, or 0-4
SJS and Austin 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, or 0-4 (Matching Arizona record)
Option 4: This one is pretty obvious. Simply win one game more than Austin and SJS wins to close out the season.
Finish 3-1, 2-2, or 1-3
SJS and Austin 2-2, 1-3, or 0-4 (One win less than Arizona)
Sabercats
Playoff Status: In the hunt. The Sabercats have been a bit of a surprise. Due to a mixture of their overachieving according to most and a couple of other teams underachieving, they are still in the mix. Due to head to heads and conference record, they currently win any tie breaker with Austin while losing to both New Orleans and Arizona. So how do they get there?
Option 1: Finish the season 4-0 with Arizona dropping a single game or New Orleans dropping three of their last four. This would put them out of reach of whichever team meets that criteria and removes Austin from the equation entirely.
Finish 4-0
Arizona 3-1 or New Orleans 1-3
Option 2: There is a way for the Sabercats to drop a game and still make the playoffs. It involves massive slips by two other teams, but its not at all impossible. At 3-1, Austin still doesn’t fit in the equation since they would lose the tiebreaker with SJS.
Finish 3-1
Arizona 2-2 or New Orleans 0-4
Option 3: At 2-2, SJS can still make it but it gets a lot stickier. New Orleans now beats SJS in any tie breaker they’re involved in and now Austin enters the fray with potential to knock out the Sabercats. This would leave them one game ahead of Arizona while remaining tied with Austin who they would beat in a tiebreaker.
Finish 2-2
Arizona 1-3 and Austin 3-1
Option 4: 1-3 provides a slim chance for SJS still, but this is the last point where they are still alive. Should they go winless, they can no longer make it to the playoff party due to losing the head to head to Arizona.
Finish 1-3
Arizona 0-4 and Austin 2-2
Copperheads
Playoff Status: In the hunt. Austin is still in the race, but they’ve fallen behind and their path will not be easy at all. They need teams to lose to have any hope and their fate is far from in their own hands. Their biggest advantage? They hold a head to head tiebreaker over Arizona.
Option 1: Austin wins out and goes 4-0. Then two other things have to happen. NOLA loses out 0-4, Arizona goes 3-1, or SJS goes 2-2. Two of those three happen and Austin still makes it in.
Finish 4-0
Arizona 3-1, SJS 2-2, NOLA 0-4 (Two of three)
Option 2: If Austin drops any of their remaining games, things get tighter. If they go 3-1, they still have to win one more game than Arizona and two more than SJS.
Finish 3-1
Arizona 2-2
SJS 1-3
Option 3: Austin’s final chance if they lose two games comes if Arizona and SJS only win a single game combined for the rest of the season. That will be a tough ask.
Finish 2-2
Arizona 1-3
SJS 0-4
NSFC
Wraiths
Playoff Status: In the hunt. The NSFC is absolute chaos right now and playoff spots are still anyone’s game. There is a chance the top team in the NSFC misses the playoffs still and still a chance the bottom team squeaks in. It's hard to even start here, so let's just dive in. How do the Wraiths currently make it into playoffs? They have conference record currently over the Hawks, Yeti, and Liberty but Liberty beats them in the head to head, making their path more difficult.
Option 1: Win out. With the Wraiths currently one game ahead of third place, winning out is their easiest path to a playoff lock. More than that though, 1ith three wins, the Wraiths still have a lot of options. They are currently 5-3 in the conference and have played all their conference games. Due to Colorado and Philly both playing against the Hawks, there is no way for all three to win out with their schedule. The Wraiths will have the conference tiebreaker over two of the three no matter what.
Finish 4-0 or 3-1
Option 2: With only winning half of their remaining games, things get tighter for the Wraiths. It’s still fully possible for them to make it with some things bouncing their way. Hawks 2-2 (one conference loss), Yeti 3-1, Liberty 2-2. One of those scenarios would be needed to get into the dance.
Finish 2-2
Yeti 3-1, Hawks 2-2, or Liberty 2-2
Option 4: While finishing out 1-3 on the season doesn’t look pretty for one of the favorites in this league, it doesn’t eliminate them from contention. There remains three scenarios where they get in with just a single win.
Finish 1-3
Yeti 2-2, Hawks 1-3, or Liberty 1-3
Option 5: There are a couple scenarios where the Wraiths make it in without winning a game, but it is absurdly convoluted. Due to the Hawks playing both the Yeti and the Liberty, at least one of these remaining teams has to win a game. In all of our other scenarios, it was entirely possible for all three of the options to happen. In this one, not all three can exist at once.
Finish 0-4
Yeti 1-3, Hawks 0-4, or Liberty 0-4
Hawks
Playoff Status: In the hunt. Due to how tight the race is here in the NSFC, it will be hard to judge the Hawks. They currently lose all tiebreakers to YKW, but due to still having to play the Liberty and Yeti once more this season, they hold no tie breakers over those two teams. It opens up a lot of scenarios for the Hawks.
Option 1: Win out. Much like the Wraiths, the Hawks are one game up in the conference and if they can close out, they make it in. Due to the nature of going 3-1, they will have to win at least one conference game. This would give them the conference tiebreaker over Liberty even if they should tie the series as well and lock them in.
Finish 4-0 or 3-1
Option 2: Beat the Liberty and go 2-2. Having head to head and conference wins automatically locks them in over Philadelphia.
2-2
Beat Liberty
Option 3: Beat the Yeti and go 2-2. Again, this would give the Hawks both head to head and conference lead over their opposition, locking them in.
2-2
Beat Yeti
Option 4: Assuming that the Hawks go 2-2 and lose both of their conference games, things get tighter for them and make it much more difficult to slide in. They would no longer have a chance at a tiebreaker with the Yeti and should they tie with Philadelphia, it comes down to points for. Philadelphia currently leads in points for.
Finish 2-2
Wraiths 1-3, Yeti 2-2, or Liberty 2-2
Option 5: This is where things get a little crazy because the Hawks play both the Yeti and the Liberty. For the Hawks to get in at 1-3 their one win would have to be over either the Yeti or the Liberty or the Wraiths would need to go 0-4.
Finish 1-3
Wraiths 0-4 or Yeti/Liberty 0-4 (Both cannot go 0-4 in this scenario because one has beat the Hawks to give them 3 losses)
Yeti:
Playoff Status: In the hunt. Have I mentioned how much I hate this conference and how close it is? Having the head to head tiebreaker over the Liberty at least makes this a little easier than the Hawks.
Option 1: Win out. Because they have the head to head over Philadelphia, even if both teams went 4-0, the Yeti would slip in past the Liberty for the third spot.
Finish 4-0
Option 2: Beat the Hawks and have the Hawks lose to the Liberty. This scenario gives the conference tiebreaker to the Yeti and gives them a little more flexibility in what they can do.
Finish 2-2
Beat Hawks
Hawks lose to Liberty
Option 3: Should the Hawks win either of their conference games, dropping even a single game makes things far more convoluted for the Yeti because it allows the Liberty back in with a chance to eliminate them. YKW will have the head to head and the Hawks currently have conference lead.
Finish 3-1
Wraiths 1-3, Hawks 1-3, or Liberty 3-1
Option 4: This is the end of the line for the Yeti should the Hawks scenario not play out. Any worse than 2-2 and they will no longer be able to slip in. Due to the implied loss to the Hawks, they’ll no longer be able to beat them out. This leaves a narrow window for the Yeti.
Finish 2-2
Wraiths 0-4 or Liberty 2-2
Liberty
Playoff Status: In the hunt. Of the four primary teams, Philadelphia needs the most help. They currently have the worst conference record of the four and currently loses the head to head against the Yeti. They do have head to head over the Wraiths though, so that could count for something!
Option 1: Even if they were to win out, the Liberty will need some help. They need people to lose so they may slip into the big games of the season. Even though they have the points for over the Hawks, the Hawks need to lose both conference games to give the Liberty the chance to get there. Which means a 3-1 Hawks eliminates the Liberty every time. They absolutely need the Yeti to drop a game due to the head to head tiebreaker not being in their favor and the Wraiths are still one game up.
Finish 4-0
Wraiths 3-1, Hawks 2-2, or Yeti 3-1
Option 2: When they start dropping games, things get significantly harder for the Liberty. They need losses on their conference to really start piling up.
Finish 3-1
Wraiths 2-2, Hawks 1-3, or Yeti 2-2
Option 3: Not much changes when they drop to 2-2. The more losses they have, the more desperately the need the other teams to drop games. Unfortunately, worse than 2-2 and the Liberty can no longer make it in. Due to the Yeti and Hawks playing each other, one of them has to have a win. Since both can’t be 0-4, a 1-3 Liberty is eliminated.
Finish 2-2
Wraiths 1-3, Hawks 0-4, or Yeti 1-3
Butchers
Playoff Status: Barely clinging. The Butchers aren’t completely eliminated, but they would need a ton of help to make it in. Due to conference standings, they can no longer compete with YKW or the Hawks. But should both of the other two completely fall apart and Chicago win out, there is a chance.
Option 1: Oof. That is really all there is to be said. Lucky the Liberty and Yeti don’t face each so this scenario is remotely possible.
Finish 4-0
Yeti 0-4
Liberty 0-4
I hope you guys all enjoyed this! I did it purely for the fun of it and I realise there is a lot of fine tuning you can do. There are scenarios involving ties and such that I just didn’t have the time and patience to work through. I was just going through earlier trying to decide which games were important and who I should be cheering against for NOLA to make it in and thought I could make a loose guide everyone could follow while I was at it! I may go through and strike through scenarios as the season plays out so people can continue checking in if they so wish! Good luck to everyone and may the odds be in your favor!
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