*Bot Offensive Tackles v. Human Offensive Tackles

[iStegosauruz]

I think looking at it historically, OL was never a position of high retention. Perhaps the stigma against it never helped, but at the same time we had no one who broke the mold of it being a position of low tpe IA's.

Articles like this will show people that while it's not a flashy stat full position, you have value for your team by adding a big % of win by being a human OL so that great

Thats part of the reason I wanted to look into this. @yonggarius just wrote an article that analyzed the S22 draft class size as it pertains to the open roster spots in the league. You can check that here for reference.

One of the things he identified is that we're starting to run into an issue with having enough roster spots for the "max" and "semi-max" earners in the DSFL. His solution to this is expanding the cap and expanding the league - both of which are viable solutions worth debating.

I think studies like the one I just conducted though show we can open up another 19 slots in the league if we replace all bot offensive tackles with human offensive tackles. Thats a challenging goal because its definitely not the sexiest of positions for a new player, however there is an incentive that if you can make it to that 200TPE benchmark you're essentially replacement value of the 550TPE bot and thus probably end up with a roster slot and contributing to the league. A roster slot seems to be of increasing value as they get squeezed by the increasing sizes of rookie classes.

[Memento Mori]

Thats part of the reason I wanted to look into this. @yonggarius just wrote an article that analyzed the S22 draft class size as it pertains to the open roster spots in the league. You can check that here for reference.

One of the things he identified is that we're starting to run into an issue with having enough roster spots for the "max" and "semi-max" earners in the DSFL. His solution to this is expanding the cap and expanding the league - both of which are viable solutions worth debating.

I think studies like the one I just conducted though show we can open up another 19 slots in the league if we replace all bot offensive tackles with human offensive tackles. Thats a challenging goal because its definitely not the sexiest of positions for a new player, however there is an incentive that if you can make it to that 200TPE benchmark you're essentially replacement value of the 550TPE bot and thus probably end up with a roster slot and contributing to the league. A roster slot seems to be of increasing value as they get squeezed by the increasing sizes of rookie classes.

OL isn't sexy, but being a starting OL on a playoff contender in the NSFL is sexier than being sent down to the DSFL for 1-2 seasons and then graduating to the NSFL and still not being a great player relative to others at your position (which could be the career projection for some semi-active players, who knows).

Your analysis is great and hopefully leads to more human OL and fewer bots. Which also just sounds better, for what it's worth.

[TomHanks]

Amazing stuff! Hopefully this helps breaks the OL stigma.

I'd be interested in seeing how much having high TPE OTs help now that you've established they're good at a low TPE, if you'd be interested in looking into that as well. Great work!

[Raven]

Thats part of the reason I wanted to look into this. @yonggarius just wrote an article that analyzed the S22 draft class size as it pertains to the open roster spots in the league. You can check that here for reference.

One of the things he identified is that we're starting to run into an issue with having enough roster spots for the "max" and "semi-max" earners in the DSFL. His solution to this is expanding the cap and expanding the league - both of which are viable solutions worth debating.

I think studies like the one I just conducted though show we can open up another 19 slots in the league if we replace all bot offensive tackles with human offensive tackles. Thats a challenging goal because its definitely not the sexiest of positions for a new player, however there is an incentive that if you can make it to that 200TPE benchmark you're essentially replacement value of the 550TPE bot and thus probably end up with a roster slot and contributing to the league. A roster slot seems to be of increasing value as they get squeezed by the increasing sizes of rookie classes.

There are def places up for grabs, but we need people to want to play OL to fill in those spots. However stats like this could def help towards that goal as it shows the importance a human OL can bring.

Luckily the issue of roster spots in the DSFL is only an issue for a season or two, but it's still a issue for sure. NSFL expansion will help after s23, but still leaves s22 with a problem. So perhaps a DSFL expansion is needed for next season if the numbers keep up to high next season.

[caltroit_red_flames]

There are def places up for grabs, but we need people to want to play OL to fill in those spots. However stats like this could def help towards that goal as it shows the importance a human OL can bring.

Luckily the issue of roster spots in the DSFL is only an issue for a season or two, but it's still a issue for sure. NSFL expansion will help after s23, but still leaves s22 with a problem. So perhaps a DSFL expansion is needed for next season if the numbers keep up to high next season.

I fully blame the stigma. A lot of active OL are waiting in the DSFL to be called up and really the only thing that has changed is we have an OL discord to talk about our players now and be accepted be.each other. Based on this article, sounds like it's their time @GMs :eyes: break out the fair rubs

[DynamicDoug]

We shall fight them in the trenches.

[timeconsumer]

I know that, the problem isn't with the sim or the current OL configuration of weight/TPE. The issue is with GMs and people like Dermot saying human OL is bad for their team/the league and discouraging users from making them or asking them to position switch.

Dermot is neither a GM nor a person

[Brucehum]

Great work.

When I began ages ago... in the great r/NFL influx of the 16th of february of this year... I asked in discord about what was more needed: OL or DL. The answer was DL, forget OL, etc.

[iStegosauruz]

Amazing stuff! Hopefully this helps breaks the OL stigma.

I'd be interested in seeing how much having high TPE OTs help now that you've established they're good at a low TPE, if you'd be interested in looking into that as well. Great work!

Yeah I think I'm going to slot that onto the list of things I want to do. I can just look at stats I've done for this project and my previous one on Approximate Value and say that it probably has some level of substantial impact at least on counting stats.

NOLA has two human offensive tackles both above 700TPE and they have the lowest "Sacks Allowed" metric in the index coming in at 7 allowed. The average in the index is 16.8, so they beat the average quite handily.

During my Approximate Value study I learned that the metrics for sacks listed in the index doesn't cover the full breadth of stats that come out of the box score. Based off box score sacks surrendered - which I calculated manually - they were again the lowest giving up 16. The chart for that metric looks like:



The average is 36 so they beat the league average again quite handily. Some of this is probably due to that their human tackles have 150TPE more than the average bot offensive tackles teams use - which are 500TPE - but some of it also probably has to do with the increased weight value they can have. How much of those reasons gets the most significance would be easy enough to analyze.

I'm going to work on an Elo Ranking System next because it allows me to not have to fight the sim but when I have the energy and mental capacity I'll sit down and do a Part 2 to this. In some ways this took a lot of time for very little immediate reward in ability to upgrade my player, etc, so I'm going to take the break and not want to bash my head through a wall.

[Duilio05]

I know that, the problem isn't with the sim or the current OL configuration of weight/TPE. The issue is with GMs and people like Dermot saying human OL is bad for their team/the league and discouraging users from making them or asking them to position switch. And we're seeing that change thanks to the fellas at New Orleans, Tijuana and Myrtle Beach but there are still holdouts. It's the stigma.

@iStegosauruz you are a legend. This data and writeup are going to be cited for a long long time. I hope you get a huge bonus for the all of the time you put into this.

I like how every Team/GM who doesn't have a Player OL is grouped as "holding out". Sorry I wasn't lucky enough to draft one of the 6 Players currently over 200 tpe. Additionally hearing "Make SA pay for it" for the last five seasons hasn't been fun either. At least I've never had a OL player on my team position switch to a different position.