*Simple Rating System

[Modern_Duke]

The Simple Rating System is well, a simple way of rating teams based on their points scored, points allowed, and the strength of teams they have played. I didn't invent this or anything. In fact you may have seen it before on the standings page on Pro Football Reference. The way it works is basically just comparing a teams points scored/allowed to what their opponents have allowed. For example, in their 5 games so far, the Colorado Yeti have played against Sarasota (who is allowing 17.0 points per game), Chicago (17.2 points per game), Baltimore (24.2), Yellowknife (15.2), and Philadelphia (28.0). Take the average of those 5, Colorado's opponents are allowing 20.32 points per game. Colorado has scored 21.0 points per game. So, 21.00 - 20.32 = 0.68. Colorado's Offensive SRS of 0.68 means they have scored 0.68 more points per game than their opponents have allowed. And then you do the opposite with points allowed compared to opponents points scored per game to get the Defensive SRS. And then just combine the two. Simple.

Also, the other calculation you can do is taking the difference between SRS and average point differential to calculate strength of schedule. To be honest I don't quite know how that works, but I'll trust the people who came up with this to be smarter than me. Colorado's overall SRS is 6.20, and their average margin of victory is 3.80. 6.20 - 3.80 = 2.40 so the Yeti's strength of schedule SRS is 2.40.

Once you know two teams SRS, the difference between the two is a decent estimate of the point spread if they were to face each other. Team X with a +5.0 SRS playing Team Y with a -2.0 SRS should be about a 7 point favorite, not accounting for home field advantage.

Are there flaws to all this? Sure, but there are flaws to any rating system and this one is at least somewhat intuitive and not overly complicated.

SRS Rankings
1. Sarasota Sailfish 
Offensive SRS: 5.4 (3)
Defensive SRS: 3 (5)
Total SRS: 8.4 (1)
Margin of Victory: 12.8 (1)
Strength of Schedule: -4.4 (13)

2. Orange County Otters
Offensive SRS: 8.28 (2)
Defensive SRS: -0.12 (9)
Total SRS: 8.16 (2)
Margin of Victory: 9.2 (2)
Strength of Schedule: -1.04 (9)

3. New Orleans Second Line
Offensive SRS: 1.04 (4)
Defensive SRS: 6.56 (1)
Total SRS: 7.6 (3)
Margin of Victory: 6.8 (4)
Strength of Schedule: 0.8 (7)

4. Colorado Yeti
Offensive SRS: 0.68 (6)
Defensive SRS: 5.52 (2)
Total SRS: 6.2 (4)
Margin of Victory: 3.8 (7)
Strength of Schedule: 2.4 (4)

5. Arizona Outlaws
Offensive SRS: 10.24 (1)
Defensive SRS: -5.44 (12)
Total SRS: 4.8 (5)
Margin of Victory: 6.2 (5)
Strength of Schedule: -1.4 (10)

6. Yellowknife Wraiths
Offensive SRS: -1.28 (9)
Defensive SRS: 4.96 (3)
Total SRS: 3.68 (6)
Margin of Victory: 9 (3)
Strength of Schedule: -5.32 (14)

7. Chicago Butchers
Offensive SRS: -0.56 (8)
Defensive SRS: 3.68 (4)
Total SRS: 3.12 (7)
Margin of Victory: 5.6 (6)
Strength of Schedule: -2.48 (12)

8. Austin Copperheads
Offensive SRS: 1 (5)
Defensive SRS: 1.64 (8)
Total SRS: 2.64 (8)
Margin of Victory: 1 (8)
Strength of Schedule: 1.64 (5)

9. Baltimore Hawks
Offensive SRS: -2.44 (11)
Defensive SRS: -0.72 (10)
Total SRS: -3.16 (9)
Margin of Victory: -6.8 (11)
Strength of Schedule: 3.64 (1)

10. Philadelphia Liberty
Offensive SRS: -1.4 (10)
Defensive SRS: -3.92 (11)
Total SRS: -5.32 (10)
Margin of Victory: -8.6 (12)
Strength of Schedule: 3.28 (2)

11. San Jose Sabercats
Offensive SRS: -8 (14)
Defensive SRS: 2.64 (6)
Total SRS: -5.36 (11)
Margin of Victory: -6.2 (10)
Strength of Schedule: 0.84 (6)

12. New York Silverbacks
Offensive SRS: -7.68 (13)
Defensive SRS: 2.24 (7)
Total SRS: -5.44 (12)
Margin of Victory: -3.8 (9)
Strength of Schedule: -1.64 (11)

13. Honolulu Hahalua
Offensive SRS: -4.84 (12)
Defensive SRS: -7.48 (13)
Total SRS: -12.32 (13)
Margin of Victory: -13 (13)
Strength of Schedule: 0.68 (8)

14. Berlin Fire Salamanders
Offensive SRS: -0.44 (7)
Defensive SRS: -12.56 (14)
Total SRS: -13 (14)
Margin of Victory: -16 (14)
Strength of Schedule: 3 (3)

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Like I mentioned above, the SRS can basically be used to determine a spread. So let's apply this to the upcoming Week 6 matchups. Again this doesn't account for home field advantage so don't go and blindly reference these for your predictions.

New York at Orange County (-14)
Sarasota (-4) at Arizona
San Jose at Austin (-8)
Honolulu at New Orleans (-20)
Colorado (-19) at Berlin
Yellowknife (-1) at Chicago
Baltimore (-2) at Philadelphia

Well those are a bit more extreme than I was expecting, but hey the system says what it says. Also it should in theory get more accurate later in the season with more data.

[Billybolo53]

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[Swanty]

$10M on Berlin +19 please

[DeadlyPlayer]

so simple, duke is a genius