It was recently brought to HO’s attention that one of our own members, Faded, had been on a historically strong predictions streak recently. In fact, Faded has scored 10 perfect predictions weeks (7/7 correct) in the previous 15 entries. Some of the bolder picks during this streak included BAL @ CHI in W5 (picked by 10% of users overall), NOLA vs BER in W8 (11%), BAL vs SJS in W9 (17%), and SJS @ NYS in W10 (12%). During that same time period, 18 users had 2 perfect weeks and 2 users had 3.
We did a quick check on anywhere that might contain spoilers that someone may have had access to. We discovered that Faded still had access to the ISFL Youtube channel from when he was a streamer. For those unfamiliar with how the game streams work, they are uploaded anywhere from 6 hours to 24 hours in advance,depending on who streams the games and when, and anyone with manager access to the channel is able to view the video before it premieres.
Next, we looked back over the last 3 seasons of predictions and cross-referenced the times that Faded submitted predictions (grouping together when multiple weeks were submitted together) and the resulting TPE versus the time the video was uploaded to Youtube. The videos are not uploaded at a consistent time, rather they get uploaded at a time convenient to the individual streamer responsible for recording the games that week.
![[Image: 6y1R2ox.png]](https://i.imgur.com/6y1R2ox.png)
The pattern that emerges is that of the previous 11 times that the prediction was made after the video had been uploaded, 10 of them resulted in perfect scores. Only Week 6 of this season resulted in 2.5 (for 3 TPE). Since the start of S27 when Faded was no longer a streamer, there have been 14 instances in total where the predictions were made after the video had been uploaded, 11 of which resulted in a perfect score.
Trying to estimate the probability of this happening naturally is really difficult without knowing the exact win % chance for each matchup, but we can make an estimate based on some assumptions. The league-wide average success rate for any single prediction is 61.1%. If you assume that every game has this chance of being picked correctly (which isn’t really true, as that will be made up of 80% favorites, 50/50 coin-flips and 20% underdogs winning, the product of which will be lower than if they were all 61.1%), the implied chance of a perfect week is 3.2%. The actual rate we saw league wide over the last 2 seasons was 2.7% so it’s not too far off, but bear in mind that the majority of the league’s perfect weeks were concentrated in the same 2 weeks (more than half came in S29 W4 and S29 W7 where there were no real upsets), so our number is likely going to be a massive underestimate to the real odds.
Using a binomial distribution, the chance of achieving 11 successes (perfect weeks observed) at odds of 3.2% out of 14 attempts (weeks where the prediction happened after the upload) is 1 in 90 trillion. Even assuming that someone extremely talented has twice as much chance of getting a perfect week than the average, you’re still looking at odds of 1 in 53 billion.
Given the astronomical odds of this happening randomly, the change in the frequency that Faded submitted predictions (from submitting in advance in bulk to submitting one at a time, hours before the stream) and the fact that Faded had the ability to access the results before they aired, with the consultation of members of the stream team, the league owner, consultation with DSFL Head Office, and an interview with Faded, HO has concluded that Faded was knowingly accessing the results ahead of time and using them to inform his predictions in order to earn the maximum possible TPE.
As a result of this, Faded will be relieved of his duties as a member of DSFL Head Office effective immediately. This means that he will not receive full HO pay for this season. Compliant with league pay rules, he will receive half pay for this season. He will forfeit the 44 TPE (11 instances where he scored perfect dating back to S27 W16) he gained by circumventing the system and abusing the powers granted to him by the nature of his role to gain a competitive advantage. Faded will also be fined $7,000,000 which is in precedence with punishment of Kendrick and punishment of YoungTB for comparable instances of deception involving point tasks. As always, faded can go to Laser and the appeals team to appeal the decision.
In summary for punishment:
- A loss of 44 TPE
- A fine ($7,000,000)
- Removal from DSFL Head Office
We did a quick check on anywhere that might contain spoilers that someone may have had access to. We discovered that Faded still had access to the ISFL Youtube channel from when he was a streamer. For those unfamiliar with how the game streams work, they are uploaded anywhere from 6 hours to 24 hours in advance,depending on who streams the games and when, and anyone with manager access to the channel is able to view the video before it premieres.
Next, we looked back over the last 3 seasons of predictions and cross-referenced the times that Faded submitted predictions (grouping together when multiple weeks were submitted together) and the resulting TPE versus the time the video was uploaded to Youtube. The videos are not uploaded at a consistent time, rather they get uploaded at a time convenient to the individual streamer responsible for recording the games that week.
The pattern that emerges is that of the previous 11 times that the prediction was made after the video had been uploaded, 10 of them resulted in perfect scores. Only Week 6 of this season resulted in 2.5 (for 3 TPE). Since the start of S27 when Faded was no longer a streamer, there have been 14 instances in total where the predictions were made after the video had been uploaded, 11 of which resulted in a perfect score.
Trying to estimate the probability of this happening naturally is really difficult without knowing the exact win % chance for each matchup, but we can make an estimate based on some assumptions. The league-wide average success rate for any single prediction is 61.1%. If you assume that every game has this chance of being picked correctly (which isn’t really true, as that will be made up of 80% favorites, 50/50 coin-flips and 20% underdogs winning, the product of which will be lower than if they were all 61.1%), the implied chance of a perfect week is 3.2%. The actual rate we saw league wide over the last 2 seasons was 2.7% so it’s not too far off, but bear in mind that the majority of the league’s perfect weeks were concentrated in the same 2 weeks (more than half came in S29 W4 and S29 W7 where there were no real upsets), so our number is likely going to be a massive underestimate to the real odds.
Using a binomial distribution, the chance of achieving 11 successes (perfect weeks observed) at odds of 3.2% out of 14 attempts (weeks where the prediction happened after the upload) is 1 in 90 trillion. Even assuming that someone extremely talented has twice as much chance of getting a perfect week than the average, you’re still looking at odds of 1 in 53 billion.
Given the astronomical odds of this happening randomly, the change in the frequency that Faded submitted predictions (from submitting in advance in bulk to submitting one at a time, hours before the stream) and the fact that Faded had the ability to access the results before they aired, with the consultation of members of the stream team, the league owner, consultation with DSFL Head Office, and an interview with Faded, HO has concluded that Faded was knowingly accessing the results ahead of time and using them to inform his predictions in order to earn the maximum possible TPE.
As a result of this, Faded will be relieved of his duties as a member of DSFL Head Office effective immediately. This means that he will not receive full HO pay for this season. Compliant with league pay rules, he will receive half pay for this season. He will forfeit the 44 TPE (11 instances where he scored perfect dating back to S27 W16) he gained by circumventing the system and abusing the powers granted to him by the nature of his role to gain a competitive advantage. Faded will also be fined $7,000,000 which is in precedence with punishment of Kendrick and punishment of YoungTB for comparable instances of deception involving point tasks. As always, faded can go to Laser and the appeals team to appeal the decision.
In summary for punishment:
- A loss of 44 TPE
- A fine ($7,000,000)
- Removal from DSFL Head Office
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