93 Season Predictions were submitted this season with the following results:
NSFC (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
1. Philadelphia (53, 25, 14, 1)
2. Yellowknife (24, 44, 25, 0)
3. Baltimore (15, 24, 52, 2)
4. Colorado (1, 0, 2, 90)
ASFC (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
1. Orange County (76, 17, 0, 0)
2. San Jose (16, 68, 9, 0)
3. Arizona (0, 8, 56, 29)
4. New Orleans (1, 0, 28, 64)
![[Image: gROGmsj.png]](https://i.imgur.com/gROGmsj.png)
Overall pretty clean predictions. Each team's most popular landing spot had a majority of user support except Yellowknife, the only team with a decent distribution.
I slapped together a rough simulation and ran 10,000 tests based on the remaining schedules and the estimated relative strength of teams. Here's how that went:
NSFC
1. Yellowknife - 86.16% 1st place, 13.81% 2nd place, 0.03% 3rd place
2. Philadelphia - 13.84% 1st place, 84.90% 2nd place, 1.26% 3rd place
3. Baltimore - 1.29% 2nd place, 98.71% 3rd place
4. Colorado - 100% 4th place
The NSFC is pretty much settled. Philly has an outside shot at 1st and Baltimore has a puncher's chance at playoffs but either one of those happening is unlikely.
To my eye, the most likely path for Philadelphia to win the conference is by beating SJ, NO, and YKW and having YKW lose to PHI and BAL. That'd put the teams tied (if we assume Yellowknife beats Colorado) pending the results of PHI playing at OC and YKW playing vs BAL.
Balitmore's most likely path (that is, the one that doesn't have them praying for Colorado to beat Yellowknife on the road) is to win out while Philadelphia loses out except beating New Orleans. This would mean the teams had identical 9-5 records with Baltimore boasting a superior conference record. Those seven results (with PHI-NO not mattering) occurred in 0.31% of trials.
With the exception of Yellowknife and Philadelphia likely switching, the NSFC will probably finish almost exactly according to prediction.
It's worth noting that there was a 10.98% chance of Philly and Yellowknife having identical records and conference records. I really can't be bothered modeling point scoring so I gave each team the tiebreaker in half of those. This may understate Philadelphia's chances because by virtue of them winning more games than Yellowknife the rest of the way they'd probably be scoring more points, as well. That said, Yellowknife has another game against Colorado so 50/50 is probably close to right.
There's a 2.71% of the cruelest timeline happening to Baltimore: they win out and still miss the playoffs.
ASFC
1. Orange County - 99.04% 1st place, 0.96% 2nd place
2. San Jose - 0.96% 1st place, 84.93% 2nd place, 12.64% 3rd place, 1.48% 4th place
3. New Orleans - 8.54% 2nd place, 62.69% 3rd place, 28.78% 4th place
4. Arizona - 5.58% 2nd place, 24.68% 3rd place, 69.75% 4th place
The only standings positions that are reasonably in doubt according to my, and I really can't emphasis this next word enough, crude model are 3rd and 4th in the ASFC. New Orleans is 2 games behind San Jose with 4 to play and Arizona is 3 games behind so there are definitely paths for them to make the playoffs still but it's very unlikely.
The ASFC was tiebreaker city. San Jose and New Orleans tied 752 times, 705 times for 2nd and 47 times for 3rd. San Jose and Arizona tied 209 times, 113 times for 2nd and 96 times for 3rd. New Orleans and Arizona tied 497 times, all for 3rd. And all three of those teams tied 183 times. All in all, 16.41% of the trials had a tie in the ASFC go down to Points For and 25.37% of trials had at least one tiebreaker in either conference go down to Points For. Like in the NSFC, I split all of these ties equally even though Arizona is probably most likely to win that in actuality.
It looks like New Orleans has about a 22.68% chance of winning at least 3 more games, which is very likely what it'd take to make the playoffs. Based on these simulations, San Jose is about 50/50 to win 0-1 games versus 2+ and this doesn't take into account the trades they just made.
There's a 0.77% chance of Arizona winning out and finishing clear 3rd and an additional 1.10% chance of them winning out and hoping they win the Points For tiebreaker. Those are 0.66% and 0.65%, respectively, for New Orleans.
Regular Season Champion:
Yellowknife (57.72%)
Orange County (33.86%)
Philadelphia (8.42%)
Yellowknife finished the season with 3 or 4 wins in 43.43% of the runs which is usually enough for them to win the regular season title. This is a pretty big upset for the predictions since only 12 people picked Yellowknife here. They were the third most common prediction after Orange County and San Jose (interestingly they were ahead of Philadelphia here despite getting fewer than half the NSFC 1st place predictions).
![[Image: 0nmJ7Lc.png]](https://i.imgur.com/0nmJ7Lc.png)
PLAYOFFS
Yeah, we're talkin' 'bout playoffs.
In the NSFC, Philadelphia was picked to advance to the championship in 44 of 93 predictions followed by Yellowknife (26) and Baltimore (22). It looks like the top two predicted teams will be the ones to fight it out, though Baltimore is still lurking. I've got Yellowknife with a 52.73% chance of making the Ultimus, Philadelphia with a 47.01% chance, and Baltimore with a 0.28% chance.
In the ASFC, Orange County was of course the favorite with 72 of 93 predictions. One massive dumbass picked New Orleans but aside from that the rest of the predictions went to San Jose which looks to be the matchup. I have Orange County as massive favorites in this game, about a 80.50% chance of making the Ultimus. San Jose has 17.81%, New Orleans 1.18%, and Arizona 0.53%.
45 of the 92 Ultimus predictions were for Orange County followed by Yellowknife (15), Baltimore (13), and Philadelphia (12). The favorite in predictions is also the favorite here with Orange County being the most likely team to bring home the championship.
FIRE-BRED
Unfortunately for the man, the myth, the legend Fire-Bred it's not looking good for his bet. In 9,664 of my 10,000 trials New Orleans finished the season with more wins than Colorado. They tied in 328 and the Yeti only surpassed the Second Line in 8.
And now for the prediction you've all been waiting for...
Will they do it...
Will Bovo have to plunge his bum hole...
Will the Yeti finish winless for the second straight season...
The numbers are in...
Survey says...
YES!
Colorado finished winless in 64.08% of the tests. Their best chances come in their final two home games, vs Arizona in Week 11 and vs New Orleans in Week 13, and they only won multiple games in 5.07% of the trials. @bovovovo prepare your bum hole.
If Arizona can win in Colorado next game that rockets up to 78.47%. Go Outlaws.
![[Image: QVXtTs9.png]](https://i.imgur.com/QVXtTs9.png)
If you're interested in that 1 trial where Colorado finished the season 4-0 this is how it went:
Week 11
Colorado beat Arizona
Balitmore beat Yellowknife
Orange County beat New Orleans
San Jose beat Philadelphia
Week 12
Colorado beat Yellowknife
Orange County beat San Jose
Arizona beat Baltimore
Philadelphia beat New Orleans
Week 13
Colorado beat New Orleans
Philadelphia beat Orange County
San Jose beat Arizona
Yellowknife beat Baltimore
Week 14
Colorado beat Baltimore
Philadelphia beat Yellowknife
Orange County beat San Jose
Arizona beat New Orleans
Philadelphia won the NSFC with a 11-3 record followed by Yellowknife (10-4), Baltimore (6-8), and Colorado (4-10).
Orange County won the ASFC with an 11-3 record followed by San Jose (7-7), Arizona (4-10), and New Orleans (3-11).
Colorado is unlikely to make up the 136 points they trail Arizona by but there's a non-zero chance that Colorado not only ruins our plunger fun and is punished by falling to the 3rd pick.
*Disclaimer, I may not have mentioned this but this is a very rough mock up of things that may or may not happen. I enjoy doing stuff like this (especially at work where I can do it instead of, you know, working) but my default life setting of extreme laziness causes me to take shortcuts. This should not be taken seriously under any circumstances.
**Also this doesn't take into account the trade deadline moves, naturally.
***Shoutout to everyone who used non-standard syntax to submit your predictions. I will be killing you in your sleep in the next 0-28 days so don't be surprised when you wake up dead.
****I very much enjoyed that 1 person accidentally got their conferences mixed up. I hope that they're given credit if they get the teams right but conferences switched.
CONCLUSION
None of this means shit but it does look like predictions were pretty accurate for the most part. Users underestimated the Wraiths but which order the NSFC's top 3 finished in and Arizona/New Orleans fighting for 3 were the only predictions that were even mildly contested and those are the only parts of the standings that have yet to be resolved.
NSFC (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
1. Philadelphia (53, 25, 14, 1)
2. Yellowknife (24, 44, 25, 0)
3. Baltimore (15, 24, 52, 2)
4. Colorado (1, 0, 2, 90)
ASFC (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
1. Orange County (76, 17, 0, 0)
2. San Jose (16, 68, 9, 0)
3. Arizona (0, 8, 56, 29)
4. New Orleans (1, 0, 28, 64)
Overall pretty clean predictions. Each team's most popular landing spot had a majority of user support except Yellowknife, the only team with a decent distribution.
I slapped together a rough simulation and ran 10,000 tests based on the remaining schedules and the estimated relative strength of teams. Here's how that went:
NSFC
1. Yellowknife - 86.16% 1st place, 13.81% 2nd place, 0.03% 3rd place
2. Philadelphia - 13.84% 1st place, 84.90% 2nd place, 1.26% 3rd place
3. Baltimore - 1.29% 2nd place, 98.71% 3rd place
4. Colorado - 100% 4th place
The NSFC is pretty much settled. Philly has an outside shot at 1st and Baltimore has a puncher's chance at playoffs but either one of those happening is unlikely.
To my eye, the most likely path for Philadelphia to win the conference is by beating SJ, NO, and YKW and having YKW lose to PHI and BAL. That'd put the teams tied (if we assume Yellowknife beats Colorado) pending the results of PHI playing at OC and YKW playing vs BAL.
Balitmore's most likely path (that is, the one that doesn't have them praying for Colorado to beat Yellowknife on the road) is to win out while Philadelphia loses out except beating New Orleans. This would mean the teams had identical 9-5 records with Baltimore boasting a superior conference record. Those seven results (with PHI-NO not mattering) occurred in 0.31% of trials.
With the exception of Yellowknife and Philadelphia likely switching, the NSFC will probably finish almost exactly according to prediction.
It's worth noting that there was a 10.98% chance of Philly and Yellowknife having identical records and conference records. I really can't be bothered modeling point scoring so I gave each team the tiebreaker in half of those. This may understate Philadelphia's chances because by virtue of them winning more games than Yellowknife the rest of the way they'd probably be scoring more points, as well. That said, Yellowknife has another game against Colorado so 50/50 is probably close to right.
There's a 2.71% of the cruelest timeline happening to Baltimore: they win out and still miss the playoffs.
ASFC
1. Orange County - 99.04% 1st place, 0.96% 2nd place
2. San Jose - 0.96% 1st place, 84.93% 2nd place, 12.64% 3rd place, 1.48% 4th place
3. New Orleans - 8.54% 2nd place, 62.69% 3rd place, 28.78% 4th place
4. Arizona - 5.58% 2nd place, 24.68% 3rd place, 69.75% 4th place
The only standings positions that are reasonably in doubt according to my, and I really can't emphasis this next word enough, crude model are 3rd and 4th in the ASFC. New Orleans is 2 games behind San Jose with 4 to play and Arizona is 3 games behind so there are definitely paths for them to make the playoffs still but it's very unlikely.
The ASFC was tiebreaker city. San Jose and New Orleans tied 752 times, 705 times for 2nd and 47 times for 3rd. San Jose and Arizona tied 209 times, 113 times for 2nd and 96 times for 3rd. New Orleans and Arizona tied 497 times, all for 3rd. And all three of those teams tied 183 times. All in all, 16.41% of the trials had a tie in the ASFC go down to Points For and 25.37% of trials had at least one tiebreaker in either conference go down to Points For. Like in the NSFC, I split all of these ties equally even though Arizona is probably most likely to win that in actuality.
It looks like New Orleans has about a 22.68% chance of winning at least 3 more games, which is very likely what it'd take to make the playoffs. Based on these simulations, San Jose is about 50/50 to win 0-1 games versus 2+ and this doesn't take into account the trades they just made.
There's a 0.77% chance of Arizona winning out and finishing clear 3rd and an additional 1.10% chance of them winning out and hoping they win the Points For tiebreaker. Those are 0.66% and 0.65%, respectively, for New Orleans.
Regular Season Champion:
Yellowknife (57.72%)
Orange County (33.86%)
Philadelphia (8.42%)
Yellowknife finished the season with 3 or 4 wins in 43.43% of the runs which is usually enough for them to win the regular season title. This is a pretty big upset for the predictions since only 12 people picked Yellowknife here. They were the third most common prediction after Orange County and San Jose (interestingly they were ahead of Philadelphia here despite getting fewer than half the NSFC 1st place predictions).
PLAYOFFS
Yeah, we're talkin' 'bout playoffs.
In the NSFC, Philadelphia was picked to advance to the championship in 44 of 93 predictions followed by Yellowknife (26) and Baltimore (22). It looks like the top two predicted teams will be the ones to fight it out, though Baltimore is still lurking. I've got Yellowknife with a 52.73% chance of making the Ultimus, Philadelphia with a 47.01% chance, and Baltimore with a 0.28% chance.
In the ASFC, Orange County was of course the favorite with 72 of 93 predictions. One massive dumbass picked New Orleans but aside from that the rest of the predictions went to San Jose which looks to be the matchup. I have Orange County as massive favorites in this game, about a 80.50% chance of making the Ultimus. San Jose has 17.81%, New Orleans 1.18%, and Arizona 0.53%.
45 of the 92 Ultimus predictions were for Orange County followed by Yellowknife (15), Baltimore (13), and Philadelphia (12). The favorite in predictions is also the favorite here with Orange County being the most likely team to bring home the championship.
FIRE-BRED
Unfortunately for the man, the myth, the legend Fire-Bred it's not looking good for his bet. In 9,664 of my 10,000 trials New Orleans finished the season with more wins than Colorado. They tied in 328 and the Yeti only surpassed the Second Line in 8.
And now for the prediction you've all been waiting for...
Will they do it...
Will Bovo have to plunge his bum hole...
Will the Yeti finish winless for the second straight season...
The numbers are in...
Survey says...
YES!
Colorado finished winless in 64.08% of the tests. Their best chances come in their final two home games, vs Arizona in Week 11 and vs New Orleans in Week 13, and they only won multiple games in 5.07% of the trials. @bovovovo prepare your bum hole.
If Arizona can win in Colorado next game that rockets up to 78.47%. Go Outlaws.
If you're interested in that 1 trial where Colorado finished the season 4-0 this is how it went:
Week 11
Colorado beat Arizona
Balitmore beat Yellowknife
Orange County beat New Orleans
San Jose beat Philadelphia
Week 12
Colorado beat Yellowknife
Orange County beat San Jose
Arizona beat Baltimore
Philadelphia beat New Orleans
Week 13
Colorado beat New Orleans
Philadelphia beat Orange County
San Jose beat Arizona
Yellowknife beat Baltimore
Week 14
Colorado beat Baltimore
Philadelphia beat Yellowknife
Orange County beat San Jose
Arizona beat New Orleans
Philadelphia won the NSFC with a 11-3 record followed by Yellowknife (10-4), Baltimore (6-8), and Colorado (4-10).
Orange County won the ASFC with an 11-3 record followed by San Jose (7-7), Arizona (4-10), and New Orleans (3-11).
Colorado is unlikely to make up the 136 points they trail Arizona by but there's a non-zero chance that Colorado not only ruins our plunger fun and is punished by falling to the 3rd pick.
*Disclaimer, I may not have mentioned this but this is a very rough mock up of things that may or may not happen. I enjoy doing stuff like this (especially at work where I can do it instead of, you know, working) but my default life setting of extreme laziness causes me to take shortcuts. This should not be taken seriously under any circumstances.
**Also this doesn't take into account the trade deadline moves, naturally.
***Shoutout to everyone who used non-standard syntax to submit your predictions. I will be killing you in your sleep in the next 0-28 days so don't be surprised when you wake up dead.
****I very much enjoyed that 1 person accidentally got their conferences mixed up. I hope that they're given credit if they get the teams right but conferences switched.
CONCLUSION
None of this means shit but it does look like predictions were pretty accurate for the most part. Users underestimated the Wraiths but which order the NSFC's top 3 finished in and Arizona/New Orleans fighting for 3 were the only predictions that were even mildly contested and those are the only parts of the standings that have yet to be resolved.
![[Image: h5Ta7H1.png]](https://i.imgur.com/h5Ta7H1.png)
