Definitely a conversation worth having before it becomes an urgent problem.
Something to note is that I would expect the long term <100 TPE rate to be closer to the 25%-33% rate we've seen recently and not the 40-50% rate we've seen most of the history because as we get into draft classes with a bunch of recreates I think it makes sense that more of those classes will be active than ones that comprise mostly of 1st gens.
Another possible solution would be to ease the beginning of regression so that we have more draft classes in play at any given time. For example, in Season 21 if we have a distribution like this:
![[Image: RmLNXiV.png]](https://i.imgur.com/RmLNXiV.png)
That'd be 145 players in the NSFL which is about the right number for 8 teams but would require 10 draft classes to be involved. If we only have, say, 8 classes involved:
![[Image: jxApiuu.png]](https://i.imgur.com/jxApiuu.png)
We'd need more like 25 players from classes between DSFL and regression compared to 18. With, say, half of each class passing 200 TPE that'd mean that 50 prospects per draft would be necessary to have 200 TPE be replacement level. In the example with 10 classes that number would be 36.
I know we have a strict regression policy to get more player turnover so that people can try out different positions and such without committing 2 years of real life time to each one but I think that's one of the more palatable solutions if we can't reliably get enough prospects each season.
Something to note is that I would expect the long term <100 TPE rate to be closer to the 25%-33% rate we've seen recently and not the 40-50% rate we've seen most of the history because as we get into draft classes with a bunch of recreates I think it makes sense that more of those classes will be active than ones that comprise mostly of 1st gens.
Another possible solution would be to ease the beginning of regression so that we have more draft classes in play at any given time. For example, in Season 21 if we have a distribution like this:
That'd be 145 players in the NSFL which is about the right number for 8 teams but would require 10 draft classes to be involved. If we only have, say, 8 classes involved:
We'd need more like 25 players from classes between DSFL and regression compared to 18. With, say, half of each class passing 200 TPE that'd mean that 50 prospects per draft would be necessary to have 200 TPE be replacement level. In the example with 10 classes that number would be 36.
I know we have a strict regression policy to get more player turnover so that people can try out different positions and such without committing 2 years of real life time to each one but I think that's one of the more palatable solutions if we can't reliably get enough prospects each season.
![[Image: h5Ta7H1.png]](https://i.imgur.com/h5Ta7H1.png)
