*Week 2 & 3: Another Fan Review

[Sweetwater]

We can agree to disagree there! I mean the Giants needed some really favorable outcomes to win the Super Bowl in 2007 after a bit of a disappointing season where they barely squeaked into the playoffs. But they still were champions at the end of the year, regardless of how it played out. Starting the following season, they were the favorites in every game up until roughly the traded deadline because they were the defending champions. That is how it works in my mind. If you're the champion, you're the best until you're not. That's the whole point of a championship, to say this is the best team. Saying they just got 'lucky' kind of waters down the idea of a championship in general.

I agree with you on most of that, especially with the Giants beating the undefeated team.

But, in this sim, which does not abide by the rules of nature or logic, luck is 100% a thing.

Again, this has nothing to do with diminishing the work Swag has done rebuilding the Outlaws. They definitely couldn't have been in a position to win the championship if they didn't have the foundation. But this sim doesn't care at all about how good you are. Teams get terrible breaks almost constantly.

So I base my evaluation of talent on the 3 things I have found to be the biggest predictors of success:
Total TPE
Member Activity
Team Comp
(not necessarily in that order)

I definitely used to think the defending champs were the team to beat. But history in the league, and (I hate to throw this weight around buuuuut) my experience simming have definitely changed my outlook on the league.

In the context of last season, head to head, AZ beats PHI the majority of the time. But YKW beats PHI the majority of the time, and YKW also beats AZ the majority of the time. Same goes for OCO and SJS. Both beat AZ and PHI the majority of the time. But, this sim comes down to a single slice of 1000s of GM sims. Sometimes, the team that has a 72% win average over 3000 sims loses to the team that was getting a 35ish% win average (teams cant test against strats they dont know).

If you ever want to get in to a deep dive about the sim and its insanity, feel free to DM me on discord, and I'll be happy to go into some of the nitty-gritty of it.