(S1) - Ultimus Week

[PigSnout]

Offensive Comparison:
I decided to make a graphical comparison between Logan Noble and Chris Orosz. They are probably the league's two most efficient quarterbacks and even after comparing the stats, it is hard to decide who is better. Quarterback play is always a huge factor in playoff outcomes and these two should provide a great matchup.


Defensive Comparison:


Future Talent:
Tight End prospect Rich Gucci had the second most receptions among all Yeti players in the playoffs.


Playoff Predictions:
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The Wraiths beating the Yeti appears to be the popular pick based on this thread as well as the Week 14 predictions thread. People are very high on the Wraiths as they are packed with flashy playmakers and had a recent 4 game winning streak. However, I am personally skeptical about the Wraiths hype. I predicted that the Yeti would beat the Wraiths in Week 14, and I believe the Yeti will beat the Wraiths again in the NSFC championship game. Why do I think the Wraiths are overrated? They have not beaten a playoff team in 6 weeks. Their big 4 game winning streak involved 3 wins against the Hawks and 1 against the Sabercats. While the streak was impressive, it was related more to the Wraiths having four easy games in a row than them suddenly getting hot. The winning streak was sandwiched between a 20-10 loss to the Yeti with playoff seeding on the line and a 24-0 blowout loss against the Otters. I think the Yeti and the Wraiths are on more equal footing than the recent Wraiths hype would suggest. Looking at the statistics, they favor a Yeti victory. Week 14 played a huge role in the playoff outcome because it determined home field advantage. The Wraiths are a mighty 6-1 in Yellowknife, but a measly 2-5 on the road. Likewise, the Yeti are 5-2 at home and 3-4 on the road. The Wraiths have not won a single road game against a playoff team while the Yeti have not lost a single home game against a playoff team The Wraiths would be heavily favored if they had home field advantage, but the Yeti now have a massive advantage since the game will be in Colorado. In addition to the location advantage, the Yeti also have the matchup advantage. The Yeti are 3-1 against the Wraiths so far this season. The Yeti are the only team the Wraiths have a losing record against this season and are the only team who has beaten the Wraiths in Yellowknife. The Yeti seem to have the Wraiths’ number, which does not bode well for the Wraiths in this playoff matchup. These trends could certainly change, but I am going to go against the flow and predict a Yeti victory. Prediction: Yeti win 23-13

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For the ASFC matchup, I am leaning toward the popular opinion of an Outlaws victory. The Outlaws have dominated the Otters so far this season. They are 3-1 in the season series with the Otters’ only victory coming in a meaningless Week 14 matchup when the Outlaws had already clinched home field advantage. It’s possible the Otters finally found a solution to beating the Outlaws, but it seems more likely the Outlaws are saving their strategies for the big playoff matchup. The most shocking stat between these teams is the fact that 13 of Mike Boss’s 19 interceptions have come against the Outlaw’s secondary. Boss threw 10 interceptions in his first two games against the Outlaws compared to 3 interceptions in his next two games against the Outlaws. Perhaps he has found a solution to the Outlaws, but the Otters will need top quarterback play in order to overcome the Outlaws’ ferocious defense and Boss’s history against Arizona is very concerning. The Otters may be able to limit turnovers by leaning on their league-best running game, but they will need a complete offensive attack in order to beat the Outlaws’ defense. In addition to the Outlaws’ past advantage against the Otters, they also have home field advantage. The Outlaws have one of the best home fields in the league as they have gone 6-1 at home this year and the Otters are 3-4 on the road. These are the league’s two best teams record-wise, but past trends suggest that the Outlaws will beat the Otters again. Prediction: Outlaws win 24-10

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I’m not sure whether the championship game will be played at a neutral site or if the Outlaws will have home field advantage. Obviously if the game is in Arizona, the Outlaws will have a big advantage. Either way, I think the Outlaws will have the advantage. I want to make the homer pick and favor the Yeti, but the Outlaws have both scored more points and allowed less points. The Yeti’s offense has struggled a lot lately due to issues with the offensive line and I think we will struggle to put up points against the Outlaws’ defense, in fact the Yeti did not score any points during their last matchup with the Outlaws. I think the Yeti will put up a good fight, but will need to play their best game of the season if they hope to win the Ultimus. I predict the regular season champion takes home the trophy. Prediction: Outlaws win 16-10

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Bottom Third:
To analyze the struggles of the Baltimore Hawks and the San Jose Sabercats, I decided to rank all of the teams by Points For and Points Against in order to determine the source of their struggles.

The most glaring statistic is the fact that the Sabercats trail drastically in points for. This is a bit of a surprise as the Sabercats have one of the league's top running backs in Vick Bowers Jr. Vick was one of just two running backs to surpass 1000 yards in Season 1. However, his yardage did not always translate to points. He only had two rushing touchdowns, which may suggest that the Sabercats struggle to execute in the red zone. In addition, quarterback play appears to be an issue for the Sabercats. Jameis Christ started the Sabercats first 8 games and finished with a 63.3 quarterback rating, which is currently the lowest quarterback rating in the league. The Sabercats were 1-7 with Christ starting. They traded for Ethan Hunt and finished the season 3-3. It seems that upgrading their quarterback helped them to fix some of their issues and finish the season on a stronger note. Unfortunately for the Sabercats, Ethan Hunt has announced that he plans to leave the Sabercats. It looks like their quarterback carousel will continue, but finding a long term starter may be the key to getting back on track. Finding stability at the quarterback position may help the running game convert more in the red zone or allow the quarterback to convert red zone drives for touchdowns. The other peculiarity with this stat is the Hawks' ranking. They rank 3rd in points for and are actually ahead of the Yeti and the Otters and just 2 points behind the Wraiths, yet they did significantly worse. Why is that? Let's look at the next stat.

The Hawks have allowed the most points in the league by a very large margin. This explains why they struggled so much despite being in the top half of the league in terms of points scored. It is a bit harder to address this than to address the Sabercats faults because defense works more as a unit rather than being as impacted by individual performances. However, it seems clear that the Hawks should look to go heavy on defensive playmakers in this year's draft and may even consider trading an offensive player for a defensive player. Also of concern is the fact that the Sabercats have given up the second most points. This is extremely worrying given that they also score the least points in the league. The Sabercats will have to rebuild on both offense and defense in order to contend while the Hawks should be able to compete as soon as they rebuild their defense, however it will need some very major improvements because it is drastically worse than even the Sabercats defense.

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