*Value Oriented Breakkdown on the CHI/PHL Trade

[iStegosauruz]

Great read first off.

Secondly, does the testing you did factor in the position change part that this trade was made in mind with? And did you run any offset probability for the 3rd round pick we acquired, for CHI's expected chance to pull a 750-1000 TPE player?

Thanks for the feedback!

As I explained in methodology I inserted Farley Hank into y'alls depth chart as a starter in two formations and a backup in the other three. If you tell me how you intend to swap players around I can definitely run the simulation again and get you the numbers - or you can provide me your internal testing numbers although I'd still likely back check them. Generally, if you'd like to contend differently its helpful for me to see
As I also stated in the piece I did experiment with different variations - swapping Leaf to WR and TE in various spots/moving Farley around where it seemed like the advantageous thing to do. I didn't save any of the numbers because they were smaller sample sizes and it was more for margin of error testing, but it didn't have a substantially greater impact. I'd still, on whole, say you gave up immense value.

As for the third round pick. With the four season sample I used a third round pick has a 28% chance of pulling a peak 250TPE player, a 23% chance of pulling a peak 500TPE player, and an 18% chance of pulling a peak 750TPE player. If you narrow the scope to only the Season 15 draft its a 50% chance to pull a 1000TPE player and a 70% chance to pull a 750TPE player.

I also went ahead and pulled data for the Season 18 draft's third round. The average TPE of a player in that round is currently 413.6. You have a 10% chance of pulling a 750TPE player and a 0% chance of a peak 1000TPE player if you narrow the sample to only that draft. They haven't had as long to accrue TPE and some are on pace - for example one has 634TPE - but on whole four of the ten picks in the round are still sub 300 and another is sub 400. It was not nearly as strong of a reddit draft.

Basically - I can see some logic for pulling the trigger on a risky trade but it doesn't seem like in any world you got appropriate value. Giving up draft picks in a strong draft for a player who at best going forward past this season will be 680TPE, a 300TPE DT, and a third round pick which is still good in this draft but not nearly as good as a first or second isn't much to get and doesn't seem as viable a strategy as building traditionally and having two blue chip players at the top.

Your top four TPE players are already regressing or will be after this season. I understand the idea that the window is now but your expected winning percentage before the trade was 37.08%. Its going to take a lot of big moves to turn that into an Ultimus contender - and the point is I don't think this trade was that type of move even with any potential margins for error in my calculations, especially considering the capital you gave up. Hence the article - based on a wholistic analysis of the situation you probably should have kept the draft picks and pivoted for the future.