03-30-2020, 05:51 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-30-2020, 07:13 AM by yonggarius.)
Continuing from my last article, "top WR destination", in this article I will be discussing the strategy of different franchises in drafting running backs and where those running back in this unusually massive draft class will end up.
Before We Begin
There are 20 runningbacks in total in this draft class. Among them, 11 submitted updated at the latest update(update of march 28th). Those eleven can be divided into several different categories like this.
Tier 1: White Goodman(221)
Tier 1.5: Akura Skyline(199),Tatsu Nakamura (196), Kichwa Jones(193)
Tier 2: Jamar Lackson(173), Richard Gilbert(172)
Tier 3: Julio Tirtwajada(137), J.B Apollo(122),Jacoby Batista(103), Aaron Feels(105)
+Kevin Fakon(117) didn't submit updates in march 28th, but was seen active in the same day.
Those eleven, plus Fakon who is likely active, will make up the runningbacks drafted in the meaningful rounds- top 10 rounds- of the NSFL draft.
New Orleans Second Line
The Second Line is loaded with running back talent, as they have two outstanding ball carriers in Forrest Gump and Marcella Toriki. Gump enters regression after this season, but he will play for several years to come because of the sheer amount of TPE he had accumulated so far. Toriki is a S18 player and has several years before even entering regression. The duo holds immense value to the team as they play a crucial role in the passing game as well as running game. Also, both of them will likely be safe from the expansion draft as Gump is a GM player, and Toriki is a keystone for the team's future. So the Second Line has no real reason to draft a running back unless Toriki is somehow unprotected and gets taken by an expansion team in the expansion draft. In that quite unlikely case, Second Line might look for a long term successor of Gump in mid rounds, likely targeting 1.5 tier running backs
Summary: Unlikely to draft any RB if Toriki stays, might target 1.5 tier RBs if Toriki is gone.
Austin Copperheads
Mendonca's reign of the Cooperheads backfield will likely continue for a few seasons, as Mendonca, a S16 player, will enter regression after next season is over, and is likely to stay some more years after that as he accumulated a large amount of TPEs. Also, Mendonca is safe from expansion draft as he is a GM player. So, the Copperheads will not make a move to draft a RB1 in this draft, especially as they have more pending needs such as cornerbacks. Instead, they will try to find a solid RB2 and long term successor for Mendonca, and will select one of tier 1.5~2 RBs in the mid rounds.
Summary: Likely to draft RBs in mid rounds.
Orange County Otters
Running Backs are top need in this year's draft for the Otters. Their RB1 Ludicolo Bigby has been inactive for quite some time, only has 543 TPE to his name, and is due to enter regression after this season. On top of that, their young RB2 Siddhu Sarepally announced retirement before the season and recreated, so this season will be his last season. This puts the Otters at the risk of having no RBs in the roster next season. Even though the Otters' ground game is largely dependent on running their star quarterback Armstrong around, a strong running back presense will highly increase the power of said ground game. So that puts the Otters in as the most likely candidate to make a move for the draft's top running back prospect, White Goodman. The Otters are certainly able to afford a 1st or 2nd round pick on a running back as they need one quite much, and Goodman will be a good editions in passing game as well as ground game as he is a receiving back.
Summary: primary candidate for top RB.
Baltimore Hawks
The Hawks Currently has 2 RBs in the NSFL and one in the DSFL. Their RB1 Apollo Reed had been inactive lately, and will enter regression after this season, but is likely to play out at least one more season as he has 806 TPE currently. Current RB2 Darrel Williams is their RB of the future, as he seems to progress nicely. The DSFL senddown Rick Skuff is also currently active and is in line to replace Reed and take the RB2 spot when he eventually retires after 1 or 2 seasons. So, the hawks are unlikely to add another RB to their roster in this draft as they have other needs like linebackers or cornerbacks. Reed taken in the expansion draft is unlikely to shake the outcome as it will only cause Skuff- auto protectee as a S21 player- to take the RB2 spot a year or so earlier as Williams is likely to be protected. In the miniscule chance of Reed and Williams being the two players taken from the Hawks besides quarterback Havran, the Hawks might snag a 1.5~2 tier running back in the mid rounds to form a RB by commity with Scuff.
Summary:Unlikely to draft RBs unless both Reed and Williams are gone.
Yellowknife Wraiths
Mathias Hanyadi will continue to be the RB1 of the Wraiths as he has several deasons before regression, but the team can use some use some improvement in RB2 position as current RB2 Orien Drake had been inactive for some time and only has 414TPE. Hanyadi is also very likely to be protected for the expansion draft, so the Wraiths will naturally seek a RB2 option in mid rounds. That will land them a tier 1.5 or tier 2 prospect who can produce solid stats from day 1 as RB1 position. In the tiny chance of Hanyadi becoming the thir Wraith to leave after Dax Frost and Rayne Gordon, the Wraiths might make a move for Goodman or high 1.5 tier prospects like Akura skyline.
Summaty: will wait until mid rounds unless Hanyadi is gone(might make a move in high rounds then)
Colorado Yeti
The Yeti has a solid RB1 in Ashley Owens, who has several seasons left until regression. But they can do with an upgrade in RB2 spot as the current RB2 Michael Vincent only has 446 TPE as a S18 player and is likely to be unprotected for the expansion draft. So naturally the Yeti will look for a RB2 candidate in the mid to late rounds after they address positions like wide receiver and cornerbacks. However, there is a possibility that Owens might be unprotected as well, and the Yeti might use their top pick for White Goodman as they can certainly afford to because their roster don't have that many needs.
Summary: a mid to late round destination if Owens stays. Might Make a move for top prospect is Owens is gone.
Chicago Butchers
Wether or not the Butchers draft a running back is mostly dependent on Ryan Leaf Jr., who recently demanded trade. If the new management in Chicago is able to solve the cause of Leaf's dissent and convince him to stay in Chicago, RB won't be a position of need as they will have Leaf- a 1198 TPE player who will play through several seasons- and Farley Hank, another regresding veteran who will stick around for at least one more season. However, if Leaf leaves Chicago, the Butchers might use one of their few(and so valuable in rebuilding because of that) draft picks on a RB and use a low round pick on a tier 3 RB to be the long term solution in the RB position, as they will need to spend their 3rd round pick- their only one inside top 50- in other positions that are in dire need like defensive backs or defensive ends.
Summary: unlikely to draft any RB if Leaf stays, will look to add a RB in layer rounds if he leaves.
Arizona Outlaws
The outlaws' only Running Back in their NSFL roster, Ruff Ruff, did not update for almost two months, but that spot will be filled by last year's 3rd round pick Baby Yoda, who had been progressing nicely in the DSFL. So the Outlaws'likely strategy for the draft is to pick up a RB2 or RBby committee candidate. One of the 1.5 tier RBs picked up through 3-4 round picks will do the job nicely. He situation is more or less the same even if the expansion draft is factored in as Baby Yoda is auto protected and Ruff is quite unlikely to be protected.
Summary: will search for a RB in 3rd- 4th round.
San Jose Sabercats
Sabercats' current RB1 is S21 rookie Rando Cardissian, who is active and will keep the role next year as he is auto protected. However, they can do with some improvements in RB2 position as the current holdet of that position, Quindarius Tyerucker, had been inactive for a long time and has less TPE than rookie Cardissian. So the Sabercats are likely to draft a tier 1.5~2 RB in the mid rounds and fill in the spot behind Cardissian in the depth chart. They are unlikely to move to acquire Goodman as they have more important needs in defense safety and linebacker.
Summary: most likely to draft a RB in 3rd-4th round.
Philadelphia Liberty
The Liberty is good in running back department as they have Sam Torenson, who is in the prime of the career, and Fuzzy Dotson, who was recently active despite not updating for almost a month. The Liberty is likely to make a depth pick in this draft as the running game revolves around Torenson Mostly. They will draft a RB in mid to late rounds, send them down to DSFL or season or two, and call them up to shoulder the load alongside regressing Torenson if they show good progress. The process will be mostly the same if Dotson, who is likely to be unprotected in expansion draft, is taken away, as that will only result in said 'depth pick' starting their career in the NSFL instead of DSFL.
Summary: Likely a mid to late round destination
Honolulu Hahalua & 
Sarasota Sailfish
The two expansion teams don't have a roster yet, so it is pointless what their draft strategy will be until they establish a basic roster through expansion draft. However, as the Sailfish is guaranteed Dax frost, they might not express as high interest in RBs as the Hahulua might express.
Before We Begin
There are 20 runningbacks in total in this draft class. Among them, 11 submitted updated at the latest update(update of march 28th). Those eleven can be divided into several different categories like this.
Tier 1: White Goodman(221)
Tier 1.5: Akura Skyline(199),Tatsu Nakamura (196), Kichwa Jones(193)
Tier 2: Jamar Lackson(173), Richard Gilbert(172)
Tier 3: Julio Tirtwajada(137), J.B Apollo(122),Jacoby Batista(103), Aaron Feels(105)
+Kevin Fakon(117) didn't submit updates in march 28th, but was seen active in the same day.
Those eleven, plus Fakon who is likely active, will make up the runningbacks drafted in the meaningful rounds- top 10 rounds- of the NSFL draft.
New Orleans Second Line The Second Line is loaded with running back talent, as they have two outstanding ball carriers in Forrest Gump and Marcella Toriki. Gump enters regression after this season, but he will play for several years to come because of the sheer amount of TPE he had accumulated so far. Toriki is a S18 player and has several years before even entering regression. The duo holds immense value to the team as they play a crucial role in the passing game as well as running game. Also, both of them will likely be safe from the expansion draft as Gump is a GM player, and Toriki is a keystone for the team's future. So the Second Line has no real reason to draft a running back unless Toriki is somehow unprotected and gets taken by an expansion team in the expansion draft. In that quite unlikely case, Second Line might look for a long term successor of Gump in mid rounds, likely targeting 1.5 tier running backs
Summary: Unlikely to draft any RB if Toriki stays, might target 1.5 tier RBs if Toriki is gone.
Austin Copperheads Mendonca's reign of the Cooperheads backfield will likely continue for a few seasons, as Mendonca, a S16 player, will enter regression after next season is over, and is likely to stay some more years after that as he accumulated a large amount of TPEs. Also, Mendonca is safe from expansion draft as he is a GM player. So, the Copperheads will not make a move to draft a RB1 in this draft, especially as they have more pending needs such as cornerbacks. Instead, they will try to find a solid RB2 and long term successor for Mendonca, and will select one of tier 1.5~2 RBs in the mid rounds.
Summary: Likely to draft RBs in mid rounds.
Orange County Otters Running Backs are top need in this year's draft for the Otters. Their RB1 Ludicolo Bigby has been inactive for quite some time, only has 543 TPE to his name, and is due to enter regression after this season. On top of that, their young RB2 Siddhu Sarepally announced retirement before the season and recreated, so this season will be his last season. This puts the Otters at the risk of having no RBs in the roster next season. Even though the Otters' ground game is largely dependent on running their star quarterback Armstrong around, a strong running back presense will highly increase the power of said ground game. So that puts the Otters in as the most likely candidate to make a move for the draft's top running back prospect, White Goodman. The Otters are certainly able to afford a 1st or 2nd round pick on a running back as they need one quite much, and Goodman will be a good editions in passing game as well as ground game as he is a receiving back.
Summary: primary candidate for top RB.
Baltimore Hawks The Hawks Currently has 2 RBs in the NSFL and one in the DSFL. Their RB1 Apollo Reed had been inactive lately, and will enter regression after this season, but is likely to play out at least one more season as he has 806 TPE currently. Current RB2 Darrel Williams is their RB of the future, as he seems to progress nicely. The DSFL senddown Rick Skuff is also currently active and is in line to replace Reed and take the RB2 spot when he eventually retires after 1 or 2 seasons. So, the hawks are unlikely to add another RB to their roster in this draft as they have other needs like linebackers or cornerbacks. Reed taken in the expansion draft is unlikely to shake the outcome as it will only cause Skuff- auto protectee as a S21 player- to take the RB2 spot a year or so earlier as Williams is likely to be protected. In the miniscule chance of Reed and Williams being the two players taken from the Hawks besides quarterback Havran, the Hawks might snag a 1.5~2 tier running back in the mid rounds to form a RB by commity with Scuff.
Summary:Unlikely to draft RBs unless both Reed and Williams are gone.
Yellowknife Wraiths Mathias Hanyadi will continue to be the RB1 of the Wraiths as he has several deasons before regression, but the team can use some use some improvement in RB2 position as current RB2 Orien Drake had been inactive for some time and only has 414TPE. Hanyadi is also very likely to be protected for the expansion draft, so the Wraiths will naturally seek a RB2 option in mid rounds. That will land them a tier 1.5 or tier 2 prospect who can produce solid stats from day 1 as RB1 position. In the tiny chance of Hanyadi becoming the thir Wraith to leave after Dax Frost and Rayne Gordon, the Wraiths might make a move for Goodman or high 1.5 tier prospects like Akura skyline.
Summaty: will wait until mid rounds unless Hanyadi is gone(might make a move in high rounds then)
Colorado Yeti The Yeti has a solid RB1 in Ashley Owens, who has several seasons left until regression. But they can do with an upgrade in RB2 spot as the current RB2 Michael Vincent only has 446 TPE as a S18 player and is likely to be unprotected for the expansion draft. So naturally the Yeti will look for a RB2 candidate in the mid to late rounds after they address positions like wide receiver and cornerbacks. However, there is a possibility that Owens might be unprotected as well, and the Yeti might use their top pick for White Goodman as they can certainly afford to because their roster don't have that many needs.
Summary: a mid to late round destination if Owens stays. Might Make a move for top prospect is Owens is gone.
Chicago Butchers Wether or not the Butchers draft a running back is mostly dependent on Ryan Leaf Jr., who recently demanded trade. If the new management in Chicago is able to solve the cause of Leaf's dissent and convince him to stay in Chicago, RB won't be a position of need as they will have Leaf- a 1198 TPE player who will play through several seasons- and Farley Hank, another regresding veteran who will stick around for at least one more season. However, if Leaf leaves Chicago, the Butchers might use one of their few(and so valuable in rebuilding because of that) draft picks on a RB and use a low round pick on a tier 3 RB to be the long term solution in the RB position, as they will need to spend their 3rd round pick- their only one inside top 50- in other positions that are in dire need like defensive backs or defensive ends.
Summary: unlikely to draft any RB if Leaf stays, will look to add a RB in layer rounds if he leaves.
Arizona Outlaws The outlaws' only Running Back in their NSFL roster, Ruff Ruff, did not update for almost two months, but that spot will be filled by last year's 3rd round pick Baby Yoda, who had been progressing nicely in the DSFL. So the Outlaws'likely strategy for the draft is to pick up a RB2 or RBby committee candidate. One of the 1.5 tier RBs picked up through 3-4 round picks will do the job nicely. He situation is more or less the same even if the expansion draft is factored in as Baby Yoda is auto protected and Ruff is quite unlikely to be protected.
Summary: will search for a RB in 3rd- 4th round.
San Jose Sabercats Sabercats' current RB1 is S21 rookie Rando Cardissian, who is active and will keep the role next year as he is auto protected. However, they can do with some improvements in RB2 position as the current holdet of that position, Quindarius Tyerucker, had been inactive for a long time and has less TPE than rookie Cardissian. So the Sabercats are likely to draft a tier 1.5~2 RB in the mid rounds and fill in the spot behind Cardissian in the depth chart. They are unlikely to move to acquire Goodman as they have more important needs in defense safety and linebacker.
Summary: most likely to draft a RB in 3rd-4th round.
Philadelphia Liberty The Liberty is good in running back department as they have Sam Torenson, who is in the prime of the career, and Fuzzy Dotson, who was recently active despite not updating for almost a month. The Liberty is likely to make a depth pick in this draft as the running game revolves around Torenson Mostly. They will draft a RB in mid to late rounds, send them down to DSFL or season or two, and call them up to shoulder the load alongside regressing Torenson if they show good progress. The process will be mostly the same if Dotson, who is likely to be unprotected in expansion draft, is taken away, as that will only result in said 'depth pick' starting their career in the NSFL instead of DSFL.
Summary: Likely a mid to late round destination
Honolulu Hahalua & Sarasota Sailfish The two expansion teams don't have a roster yet, so it is pointless what their draft strategy will be until they establish a basic roster through expansion draft. However, as the Sailfish is guaranteed Dax frost, they might not express as high interest in RBs as the Hahulua might express.
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