*The Potential of the Casino

[Vorshayla]

Yeah I understand what you're saying. I'm operating in a world where lines don't move because for the purpose of the experiment it would have been to complicated to include. Thats definitely something that should be factored in to whatever calculus HO decides to use with how they operate the casino. In an ideal world the lines should move - I just can't build it into a static study.

I mean if lines don't move ever, the only sensible thing would be to make all payouts even money. Anything else would skew it considerably. Since there's no tangible stats to track and sim gonna sim, so it's gonna be hard to even draw the initial line and if you start doing crazy shit like offering arbitrary ratios then the people who know what betting is all about is just gonna play the lines and not the actual bet itself since the payout is gonna be so much better.

I'm going to assume the purpose of the sportsbook is to take money out of the league, so you definitely don't want to have the opposite effect with inflated lines.

For example :

San Jose Sabercats https://i.imgur.com/lZGDADN.png at New Orleans Second Line https://imgur.com/ez5u8bq.png
Over/Under 39 Points
Over -1500 i.e. a $250k bet makes $17k in profit
Under +250 i.e. a $250k bet makes $625k in profit
San Jose Sabercats +13.5 / New Orleans Second Line -13.5
Sabercats +13.5 -350 i.e. a $250k bet makes $71k in profit
Second Line -13.5 +120 i.e. a $250k bet makes $300k in profit



The cats being favored to cover at -350 is a steal. but you're also giving them a huge spread. I would have lowered either the point spread and kept the ratio the same, or increased the ratio and kept the point spread the same

like NO being the underdog in that bet scenario and having to win by 2 touchdowns is a lose lose bet for anyone. No one in their right mind would take that bet because they're the underdog AND they have to cover the spread