*Predicting S22 Week 2 using Elo

[IthicaHawk]

For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:

• 1 Elo ranking NSFL teams
• 2 Home Field Advantage - An Analysis

For previous weeks see here:

• 1 Week 1

Week one is in the books now, our Elo based prediction gave us 75% accuracy which is pretty reasonable. There was a couple of interesting matches. The Hawks 13-17 home loss to the Sailfish was the biggest odds based upset of the week as we predicted Hawks had a 66.09% chance of taking that one. We did suggest it would be a close game, predicting a winning margin of 4.5 points so that was fairly close.

There is also the matter of the 24-24 tie between Copperheads and Outlaws. Not only is this unexpected it's also unaccounted for. After all, who in their right mind predicts a tie? The winning margin was given as 1.0 points and the copperheads predicted in chance was just 52.72% so read into that if you must. Since my sheets don't specifically account for ties (first tie I've had to input with these sheets going back to S18 inclusive) I've awarded each team 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses. I've also awarded the sheet itself half points for the prediction because I'm a nice guy.

In terms of Elo, the biggest winners were the Liberty with their 51-10 win over the Butchers. It was enough to give them a boost of +57.14 elo points, taking them from 12th overall to 9th. Butchers dropped from 9th to 11th sitting just above the SaberCats.

At the other end of the table, Second Line and Otters maintain their 1st and 2nd ranks but the Yeti have pushed Wraiths down to 6th and taken 3rd for themselves.

The weekly rankings are as follows
1(=) - 1,690.69
2 (=)- 1,625.41
3(+2) - 1,548.37
4 (=) - 1,527.34
5(+2) - 1,524.71
6(-3) - 1,510.56
7(+1) - 1,498.48
8 (-2)- 1,462.48
9(+3) - 1,433.58
10(=) - 1,414.53
11(-2) - 1,362.97
12(-1) - 1,362.38

Week 2

Otters @ Second Line
The top two ranked teams face off here but we're predicting a strong showing from the defending Ultimus champions, Second Line have a 67.92% chance of taking this one with a margin of at least 5.0 points.

Hawks @ Butchers
Despite having not having home field advantage, the Hawks 4th ranked Hawks are still 63.92% favourites over 11th place Butchers. Home field advantage does give the Butchers a fighting chance with a predicted points differential of 4.0 points.

Sailfish @ Wraiths
I had originally predicted Sailfish here but after an error spotted by @BaconBrother I have updated my sheets. We now see that Wraiths are, in fact, more likely to win. It's still somewhat close with just a 57.27% chance to win for the 6th ranked Wraiths. Can the Sailfish come away with another upset and continue climbing the rankings?

Yeti @ Liberty
It's not often we see the away team as favourites, especially at the start of the season as the Elos are at their most compressed, but here we have the away Yeti given a 57.12% chance of winning over Liberty at home. Liberty have just come off a strong win though so the margin is only 2.0 points.

Copperheads @ Hahalua
Another prediction for the expansion teams here, Hahalua have the edge on an already close matchup thanks to their home field advantage. They have a 54.16% chance of coming away with their first win this week.

Outlaws @ SaberCats
This weeks 'should I predict a tie?' game see's both teams looking for their first win of the season. Despite being at the bottom of the pile, we give Sabercats the smallest of edges here, a 51.85% win chance and a PPD of just 0.5 points. Please no more ties.

Summary
A much closer week thanks to a lot of similarly ranked teams facing off compared to last week should make for some interesting matchups.

@ = 67.92%
@ = 63.82%
@ = 57.27%
@ = 57.12%
@ = 54.16%
@ = 51.85%

Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~66% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.