Long form task 3
As many people probably know or have seen through my posting history, I have a very big interest in the impact of offensive lineman on the offensive capabilities and productions of a team. While people have attempted to somewhat visualize these impacts, coming out with studies showing that a good offensive line increases winning percentages by X amount, I would like to see the impacts of every single significant offensive lineman statistic on every single relevant offensive statistic for each position. For example, does an increase of strength by 1 impact the throwing yards of a quarterback, and if so, by how much. My interest for this topic largely comes from the fact that a majority of offensive lineman still seem to be undervalued in the league. Comparing the current state of the NSFL with a real life counterpart, we see that it is incredibly unlikely for a OL in the NSFL to go before the third round. This is an incredibly stark contrast to what happens in the real world, where offensive lineman consistently go in the first round. I think by actually visualizing and putting a number on the impacts of a great offensive lineman will be the first step in bucking that trend and actually getting teams to value offensive lineman like they should.
I think that the first step in such a long and arduous task would be data collection. Ideally, I would like to use all of the data, both NSFL and DSFL, from the last 5 seasons. Although it can be argued that more data is better, I want my data and results to accurately reflect the current state of the league. Considering the 5 seasons ago, the meta likely was different from the way things are now and running backs and QBs may have completely different builds, I think that keeping the data only relevant to teams in the last five years would absolutely be the way to go. I would begin by compiling all of the relevant rosters and attributes for each of the offensive lines for each of these seasons. Then, I would do one large regression with all of these attributes, and set the y value as throwing yards, TDs, rushing yards, etc. By doing so, I will be able to actually see the individual impacts of offensive lineman statistics on these stats. I also think that this would have a very different impact, in that if the results are different than what is expected, it could also completely alter the meta of offensive linemen in the league. Currently, the meta is max weight and height, but that may change in the future.
Another larger area that I am really interested in is the positioning of the offensive linemen. As we know, most, if not all of the human offensive linemen are usually placed at the left or right tackle positions. However, from what I have seen in the various sims, the sim engine itself very much likes to have the running back take it up the middle between the gaps, rather around the edge. Furthermore, most of the sacks come from the A and B gaps, rather than the edge or the C gap. Thus, I’m curious if perhaps teams should look at putting their highest TPE linemen at the guard positions rather than tackles. This could help teams relieve pressures on their quarterbacks and achieve more running room, but it would also help when the team wants to run to the outside, because as we know, it is very common for guards to pull on stretch plays or even trap plays. By having fast and strong linemen at the guard positions, it may help running backs turn losses into larger gains. However, this would absolutely be something that would need to be looked into.
All in all, these are just a few of the little things that continue to interest me about the offensive lineman position and its role in the NSFL. While I enjoy the renaissance that offensive linemen have enjoyed these last few seasons in this league, I also think and know that we will never be the super popular and glamorous position that wide receiver or running back is. It is precisely because offensive lineman are not as popular that there is perhaps not as much statistical analysis available for offensive lineman. Thus, we need to remedy that in order to further popularize the position. I personally think that a lot of the league are beginning to change their perceptions and recognize the importance of having a great offensive line. Furthermore, people are beginning to encourage and incentivize their offensive linemen to stay and be active because they realize that importance. This is great, and may signal changing times. In my opinion, I think that the ideal timeline would be one where offensive lineman are taken in the first round and appreciated more, especially in media pieces.
As many people probably know or have seen through my posting history, I have a very big interest in the impact of offensive lineman on the offensive capabilities and productions of a team. While people have attempted to somewhat visualize these impacts, coming out with studies showing that a good offensive line increases winning percentages by X amount, I would like to see the impacts of every single significant offensive lineman statistic on every single relevant offensive statistic for each position. For example, does an increase of strength by 1 impact the throwing yards of a quarterback, and if so, by how much. My interest for this topic largely comes from the fact that a majority of offensive lineman still seem to be undervalued in the league. Comparing the current state of the NSFL with a real life counterpart, we see that it is incredibly unlikely for a OL in the NSFL to go before the third round. This is an incredibly stark contrast to what happens in the real world, where offensive lineman consistently go in the first round. I think by actually visualizing and putting a number on the impacts of a great offensive lineman will be the first step in bucking that trend and actually getting teams to value offensive lineman like they should.
I think that the first step in such a long and arduous task would be data collection. Ideally, I would like to use all of the data, both NSFL and DSFL, from the last 5 seasons. Although it can be argued that more data is better, I want my data and results to accurately reflect the current state of the league. Considering the 5 seasons ago, the meta likely was different from the way things are now and running backs and QBs may have completely different builds, I think that keeping the data only relevant to teams in the last five years would absolutely be the way to go. I would begin by compiling all of the relevant rosters and attributes for each of the offensive lines for each of these seasons. Then, I would do one large regression with all of these attributes, and set the y value as throwing yards, TDs, rushing yards, etc. By doing so, I will be able to actually see the individual impacts of offensive lineman statistics on these stats. I also think that this would have a very different impact, in that if the results are different than what is expected, it could also completely alter the meta of offensive linemen in the league. Currently, the meta is max weight and height, but that may change in the future.
Another larger area that I am really interested in is the positioning of the offensive linemen. As we know, most, if not all of the human offensive linemen are usually placed at the left or right tackle positions. However, from what I have seen in the various sims, the sim engine itself very much likes to have the running back take it up the middle between the gaps, rather around the edge. Furthermore, most of the sacks come from the A and B gaps, rather than the edge or the C gap. Thus, I’m curious if perhaps teams should look at putting their highest TPE linemen at the guard positions rather than tackles. This could help teams relieve pressures on their quarterbacks and achieve more running room, but it would also help when the team wants to run to the outside, because as we know, it is very common for guards to pull on stretch plays or even trap plays. By having fast and strong linemen at the guard positions, it may help running backs turn losses into larger gains. However, this would absolutely be something that would need to be looked into.
All in all, these are just a few of the little things that continue to interest me about the offensive lineman position and its role in the NSFL. While I enjoy the renaissance that offensive linemen have enjoyed these last few seasons in this league, I also think and know that we will never be the super popular and glamorous position that wide receiver or running back is. It is precisely because offensive lineman are not as popular that there is perhaps not as much statistical analysis available for offensive lineman. Thus, we need to remedy that in order to further popularize the position. I personally think that a lot of the league are beginning to change their perceptions and recognize the importance of having a great offensive line. Furthermore, people are beginning to encourage and incentivize their offensive linemen to stay and be active because they realize that importance. This is great, and may signal changing times. In my opinion, I think that the ideal timeline would be one where offensive lineman are taken in the first round and appreciated more, especially in media pieces.
Code:
822 words