*S22 Draft Review Rounds 1-5

[iStegosauruz]

I told myself this morning that I wasn't going to comment on this because I didn't want to be pulled into the fray, but after rereading it I think I do have a few things that need to be said.

Essentially, I disagree with your entire methodology in this post.

The league needs to get past this point of evaluating draft picks entirely on TPE factors. Its a great metric for determining the range in which a prospect is going to, however it isn't the end all metric some people - including this post - treat it as. In a draft class as stacked as this one, the difference in marginal TPE - often around 25TPE between top players and the fifth player at that position - is insignificant in the long run. If you think you've found someone who possesses value from something other than TPE - whether that be sim testing ability, general personality, locker room fit, humor, etc - than you take them over the person with the higher TPE value. You'd rather draft someone you know fits the team environment and the plan you're building because that increases the retention rate of your draft class. At the top tier all of these players will cap their builds - its more than max earning because if you "max earn" at most positions in the technical sense you end up capping your build path anyway. So who cares if someone gets to pump up their Kick Power at the end of their career because they had 25 more TPE at draft time.

In terms of technical picks I'll choose a few favorites that I have issues with either on the grading or reasoning fronts.

Pick 1 -

With the first overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the Austin Copperheads select… CB Colt Mendoza of the Dallas Birddogs!

TPE at Draft time: 200 TPE

TPE as of now: 387 TPE

Improvement: 187 TPE

It’s funny as I rewatch the draft stream that they only put Colt’s graphic up there for about 2 seconds, and then Bex sarcastically said “Austin took Colt Mendoza at pick number 1. Super shocking”. That was kind of the mood at the time because Mendoza was the consensus number 1 overall pick, but it wasn’t always like this. Mendoza was a nobody during the S21 DSFL draft, and he fell a lot. Only recently had iSteg started to shoot up people’s draft boards. He had started posting these amazing media pieces with in depth and detailed statistical analysis. It took a lot of time and effort to do something like that, and he somehow managed to do it. His large brain and knack for simming made him an easy choice for Austin to pick. His TPE was a concern though as he was only 200 TPE, which wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t first overall material. He even got sent down this season, so that shows you how the team thinks of him right now. He will most likely get called up for S23, but it’s suspect when your first overall pick gets sent down.

Spot grade (Grade I would have given at the time of the draft): A+

Grade as of now: A

iSteg was definitely worth the pick, as he has become a valuable war room member to Austin. He helps with simming and was behind the strategy that carried them out of their 1-4-1 hole all the way to the conference championship. While Colt Mendoza did not have any on field impact, there was plenty of impact behind the scenes.

Hey look, its me. Firstly, I appreciate the kind words in saying that I was worth the pick. My problem with this analysis is the phrasing "its suspect when your first overall pick gets sent down." That entire comment neglects to understand most facets of team building - I wasn't drafted first overall for my player, I was drafted first overall for my user. It isn't a knock on my player, me personally, or Austin that they took a player first overall who spent another season in the DSFL - as much as some personalities in this league have tried to make that a sticking point or roast me with it.

When I was drafted one of the first things I was consulted on was whether or not Austin should bring in a higher TPE CB to fill the other boundary slot across from Dermot instead of bringing me up. I discussed potential options available with trades with the rest of the war room and we came to the consensus that there was enough of an improvement adding Rambo - who at the start of the season was 250TPE-ish better than me - for the amount he was going to cost us that it was a worthwhile move. Before the trade was approved I was consulted on if I was okay spending another season in the DSFL - a move I was totally okay with if it meant Austin was going to maximize their % chances of winning an Ultimus. There isn't shame in doing that for the team, and consider I still provided the value the team was expecting when they took me first overall (i.e. in helping make decisions on moves such as adding Rambo, swapping Cole's archetype, bringing Jeeta up, and general testing) I don't think its suspect at all.

I'm sorry my team was so strong they could draft a player first overall and not need them in the majors immediately.

Pick 4 -

With the fourth overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the Philadelphia Liberty select… CB Brandon Booker of the Myrtle Beach Buccaneers!

TPE at Draft time: 218 TPE

TPE as of now: 407 TPE

Improvement: 189 TPE

Brandon fucking Booker. What a beast. This dude is an amazing guy and I’ve talked with him a lot as he’s part of the #DBrotherhood. He fell in the DSFL draft, but he aced predictions and fantasy and quickly rose up in the ranks of TPE and started earning a lot. He became the highest TPE CB during the draft, even though Oles had more TPE, he just forgot to update that week. Philly could have gone Oles, but they wanted Brandon Booker. I don’t blame them, he’s an amazing personality. Another player in the secondary for Philly, who now has a really intimidating young duo with Booker and Cross. These guys are the top 2 defensive backs in terms of TPE as of now. This class was extremely deep in defensive backs, and half of the first round was just defensive backs. I don’t know if it made sense for them to pick 2 defensive backs so high considering how deep the class is, and I don’t see the need to trade up. San Jose might have nabbed Booker at 5, but they could have gotten another top tier CB or S. If they wanted Booker so badly, they could have gotten him at 3 and then Cross or Hellzapoppin at 6. It doesn’t make sense what they did, and there were certainly better routes for them. I’m just saying that I’m going to be nitpicking everything because there are always better options.

Spot Grade: C+

Grade as of now:C+

Sorry Mori, it’s not your fault, I think you should have gone at 3 honestly. Liberty could have nabbed another secondary player at 6 if they didn’t trade up, and they passed on Tyler Oles Jr., who has a fuck ton of TPE.

In a draft class this loaded, who cares if someone has a "fuck ton of TPE" later on. If you think a player is a good culture fit, you take them every time. You do what you can to take them - assuming the price is within logical parameters.

Mori is a great fit in Philly. I love what they're building over there - Hall and Soup have them on a great course - and Mori is a huge part of that. I can't speak from the inner workings of the LR but I'm sure he's valuable contributor into the strategy aspect of the team, because I know he is for Myrtle Beach. I'm also sure he's in their management pipeline. He's a future leader in the league - hell he's a current leader in the league - and there's no issue in securing that player even if there is someone with a "fuck ton of TPE" still on the board.

Grade as of now for steg: A+

Mori is great. He's one of the guys that when teams were talking to me during scouting and would ask my opinions on who I'd like to play with from my class that I'd mention every time. He's a total stud.

Pick 8 -

With the eighth overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the Colorado Yeti select… DT Mo ‘Mamba’ Magic of the Minnesota Grey Ducks!

TPE at Draft time: 201 TPE

TPE as of now: 372 TPE

Improvement: 171 TPE

TVC is as an amazing dude, who like Steg and Exi, has risen up quickly through the ranks of the NSFL. His player may not have that much TPE, but there is a lot of behind the scenes stuff that he does for his team. I’m sure Colorado took all of this into consideration. TVC is a casino worker along with Steg, and both are doing amazing work over there, robbing people. I assume TVC has a big part in the war room, because that’s just the type of person he is. I do have a concern about his earning, because 372 isn’t that great. It’s still really good, but definitely not first round levels of earning. Regardless, he seems to be a great fit in the LR there and is embracing the Yeti way, which is choking in the playoffs. I’m writing this before the Ultimus and will be too careless to edit this, so I can’t wait for this to bite me in the butt. (Hey, it’s me from the future. 21-3 hehe)

Spot Grade: C

Grade as of now: C+

There was a better option in Cuco Clemente in terms of TPE. They could have definitely traded down and selected him a bit later. I don’t think a lot of teams had a big need for DT, and they definitely could have gotten some value. With that being sai,d TVC is still an amazing due and it was a good pick, but could have been better.

Are you sensing a trend in who I'm selecting as people to call out for your shoddy logic yet?

VC is a person I talk to DAILY. We work on almost everything together. Just like Mori, he's a current/future leader in the league and I know from my conversations with him that he's an integral part of what they're building in Colorado.

He's max earned since the draft. 171TPE is nothing to scoff at. Who cares if he only had 200TPE at the time of the draft? Dude has shown literally every day since the draft he's going to be around the league for a long time and do great things. He's going to cap his build. Who cares if where he started at TPE wise.

Smart move by Colorado to secure a great piece for the future. VC is someone I'm honored to get to work with and learn from on a daily basis.

Pick 12 -

With the twelfth overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the New Orleans Second Line select… CB Andrew Witten of the Tijuana Luchadores!

TPE at Draft time: 205 TPE

TPE as of now: 394 TPE

Improvement: 189 TPE

This is one of the most unexpected picks that happened in the draft, and definitely the most unexpected pick in the first round. A lot of people has mocked Slothisberger to NOLA with this pick. It seemed kind of unfair the ultimus winner had so many picked early on. But they wasted them so it doesn’t matter. Just kidding. Andrew Witten as a player didn’t have as much TPE as other CBs, and I don’t know if going to mith was the best choice. Don’t get me wrong, mith is a smart dude who did a lot of analysis like steg. He was kind of like if Steg had a baby. That would be mith. He hasn’t been doing as much stuff now, but he has been earning a lot. I’m sure he is doing some behind the scenes stuff with NOLA in that war room. He seems like someone who can be very valuable in the technical side of things and can help the team with strats and such. He was like NOLA’s discount version of steg, which is no shot to you mith lol you have all my respect. The opportunity for these jokes don’t come up much and I have to flame as many people as I can within my article. I’m Zamir. This pick could have definitely been a better corner like Oles, but the NOLA GMs don't like bringing anyone that isn’t a robot on the team.

Spot Grade: C-

Grade as of now: C

I bumped it up to a C because it’s an ok pick. Not first round level of TPE earning, but still an active max earner who can provide valuable assistance i nthe war room. I just think there’s a lot of talent here in other positions and better CBs on the board.

Probably the worst first round grade you handed out. Mith is another stud in the same vein as VC and Mori. He's a current/future leader in NOLA and one of the smartest players in the league bar none. As a DSFL I'm actively frightened of what he and Jay are going to keep building in Tijuana.

He's another guy I've worked with on a variety of things. Just speaking on the impact he's had since he became a GM less than a week ago - he's already making big moves and proposing great ideas. This was a homerun of a pick by NOLA to secure one of the people from our draft class that I think has a bright future ahead.

Hell, getting him at 12 was a steal. This was a top talent. Highest earner in the first round and one of the best users in the league.

Pick 5 -

With the 17th overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the New Orleans Second Line select… QB Ben Slothisberger of the Tijuana Luchadores!

TPE at Draft time: 203 TPE

TPE as of now: 396 TPE

Improvement: 193 TPE

NOLA obviously likes to pick players based off of their special logic. They don’t draft based on TPE, but rather who they like. It’s a very specific category, but it obviously works for them, because they just won the Ultimus a season ago. Don’t worry NOLA, I’m not going to flame your drafting method, even though it is a tad bit questionable. There was another Tijuana QB who actually had more TPE than Slothisberger, but they opted to go for the sloth man himself. NOLA loves him, and he’s a pretty good earner. They obviously see him as their future, and he’ll soon take over for Stan Fransisco. Jim Waters on the other hand? No one knows what’s going to happen to him, but he’s going to be a maxed out QB sitting on a team’s bench one day. Of course, I don’t know if any other team wanted to pick Slothisberger, and I don’t know if he warranted a mid second round pick. He had pretty low TPE, and wasn’t an appealing prospect compared to other QBs, so he was definitely going to fall.

Spot Grade: D

Grade as of now: D

There’s just no need to waste a pick on him when you could have gotten him later in the draft. They could have gotten a really good player with this pick that would have been gone next round. Some solid talent still left, especially at DL.

Hey look, another great culture draft pick by NOLA. Sloth was getting serious first round buzz by multiple teams during the draft. There are multiple teams who are trying to figure out their QB plan of the future, and even if sloth was a season or two early for some of those teams the value he brings as a user in the league - since he's one of the nicest, most genuine, and dedicated guys in the league - makes this another slamdunk pick by NOLA.

He's their QB of the future, one of their team leaders of the present/future, and a stud earner. Why roll the dice he falls to you again? Why risk it and potentially have to spend more capital to move up and take him before someone else does? Just secure your player.

Pick 6 -

With the 18th overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the Philadelphia Liberty select… S Wesley Eriksen of the Norfolk Seawolves!

TPE at Draft time: 200 TPE

TPE as of now: 373 TPE

Improvement: 173 TPE

Philly seems to value personality and LR fit a lot more than I thought. They are almost like NOLA. Obviously, they needed some secondary help, so they wanted another safety as insurance. I can’t blame them. There were still some solid prospects on the board here, Buck Thornton, Quinn Hughes. They also needed DL help, and Troen Egghands was somehow still here. He was mocked to go in the first round on a lot of people’s mocks, so you would think Philly would jump at the opportunity after drafting 2 really good secondary players, right? Apparently not. They get the user Lightnoir in their team, and he’s not exactly a max earner, but he’s still really good. I think they could have gone another route, as there was still really good talent. Even I was on the board here, and I thought Philly loved me. I mocked my self to go there in the first round, but I thought surely they would pick me up later if no one else did. I guess they thought differently, but I got a very strong vibe from them that I was landing there. Philly is a team where I haven’t ruined my relationship with them, so that’s nice. I do think they will be contenders in a couple of seasons, just like Zona. They had a nice draft, but not that nice.

Spot Grade: C-

Grade as of now: C

There was just more talent available here with the 18th pick. There were a lot of good players still on the board, and I think they could have gotten a solid max earner.

I'm confused about your definition of "max earner." Lightnoir will start this coming season with 415+ TPE. Thats crazy. Dude's a stud user involved in a ton of stuff in the league. You know you're getting a long term, loyal player.

I had the pleasure of working with Light in the awards committee this year. This was an amazing pick by Philly. The analysis shows the continued disconnect from value of getting a safe, talented user over someone with 15TPE more. I'll trade 1 point in endurance right now for a stud user any day.

Pick 10 -

With the 22nd overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the Orange Country Otters select… DT Big Edd of the Dallas Birddogs!

TPE at Draft time: 190 TPE

TPE as of now: 360 TPE

Improvement: 170 TPE

As much as I like OCO’s drafts usually, this was a pick that left me dumbfounded. No disrespect to you Edd, you know I love you, but you’re just not a max earner and worth a second round pick. If OCO wanted help on the DL, they could have picked up Sandro Ryeu or Deshun Jones. Oh wait, they did pick u pdEshun Jones in the next round, which made no sense. He’s almost 40 TPE ahead of Edd, and it didn’t make sense to waste this pick when there was so much more talent available. Psst, DEs can play at DT . There were a lot of things the GMs could have done here, but they must have really liked Edd’s memes or something.

Spot Grade: D

Grade as of now: D-

If Edd had started to max earn, maybe this would have gotten a better grade, but the fact that he left the NSFL discord and said he will be less active is not a good sign for OCO. Maybe they counted his rampant shitposting as a sign of activity, but this was just a bust.

Hey look, another player with 360TPE - amazing considering where he started. I was pick 147 in the DSFL draft. He was 155. We didn't know anything at the beginning but learned under the guidance of Gucci and Kyle and both became top 25 picks.

Edd is a great person and one of my favorite people in the league. Who cares if he doesn't want to tangle in the shit show that is the general chat? I don't get involved in their much time. Edd is still LR active in the Birddogs room, and from just checking the Otters LR at a quick glance is still active over there.

He earns at a fine rate. He's a funny guy. He's a LR gem. Great personality fit for OCO.

Pick 4 -

With the 28th overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the Arizona Outlaws select… DE Sandro Ryeu of the London Royals!

TPE at Draft time: 211 TPE

TPE as of now: 398 TPE

Improvement: 187 TPE

I didn't know much about Sandro Ryeu, but I've come to know him after being with him for a whole season. I know he screwed over some people in fantasy . That's always nice. He has a lot of TPE for a DE at 398, and like I said before, max earning DEs are very valuable. They are the most undersaturated position in the league right now. As I explained before, they have the worst TPE average out of all positions except special teams. Arizona is currently stacked at defensive line, and I don't know if this was a necessary pick considering they got Slinky Claxton with a later pick and then traded him after a season. Since they picked this first, I understand, cause this was the last max earning DE on the board.  I think the Slinky pick was a bad one, so I'm definitely going to trash that one. I think there was still some better talent on the board, like Deshun Jones was somehow here, and he's over 400 TPE now. There is also James Cho, a complete beast with over 400 TPE, and he’s a DE, not a DT like Deshun Jones. Maybe uni just really liked s4ndrop, but James Cho should have been picked here.

Spot Grade: C-

Grade as of now: D+

You could have gotten James Cho, a player with more TPE. You might be thinking, oh the difference is only 10 TPE, it barely matters. But this is what separates prospects. If there is a better player available, I’m going to be calling out the team.

Did you really just call out a teammate for being a bad pick to your own team because someone has 10TPE more currently? Thats literally almost no difference...

Ryeu is great. He had first round buzz. The fact you just called out your teammate over 10TPE is a problem. End of story.

Pick 7 -

With the 31st overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the Austin Copperheads select… WR Eddie Jeeta of the Kansas City Coyotes!

TPE at Draft time: 195 TPE

TPE as of now: 399 TPE

Improvement: 204 TPE

JEETA!!! I’m surprised he fell this far, even though he was low TPE, I think he forgot to update or put something in his update or something, because he improved a lot. 204 improvement is a crap ton. I’ve always been a fan of QuirkyTurtle and I’ve always thought of him as the number 1 WR in the class, even though he hadn’t accumulated as much TPE on paper at draft time. Considering someone with 20 more TPE was selected right after him, it almost seemed embarrassing for the copperheads, but they apparently really liked him, and I’m glad he landed in a really good place. Austin is a great team. :eyes:. Jeeta gained a lot more TPE and surpassed Lim, making this pick look a lot better. He’s going to be a great WR on a team that desperately needed help at that position. Net sucks so much and can’t catch for shit it’s hilarious. Dermot probably has more catches than Net this season. Jesus Christ Net is so bad.

Spot Grade: D

Grade as of now: B

We see the biggest improvement in draft grades as of yet, because Jeeta decided to prove us all wrong and earn like a fucking beast.

I'm not sure who Jeeta proved wrong. He was a stud going into the draft and still is. He was continually thought of a one of the top two WRs in the draft - along with William Lim - and was drafted as such. He ran WR3 for Austin and had a great year. He's active in the LR. He's one of the best graphic artists in the league.

Not sure what you were thinking he was in the beginning, because he's always been great.

Pick 8 -

With the 32nd overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the Colorado Yeti select… WR William Lim of the Minnesota Grey Ducks!

TPE at Draft time: 216 TPE

TPE as of now: 396 TPE

Improvement: 180 TPE

This pick goes hand in hand with the last one, and I honestly thought this was one of the biggest steals of the draft. 216 TPE falling to late third round? Only in the S22 class would this happen. Unfortunately, he didn’t earn as much as Jeeta, which is why this pick’s value kind of went down, even though it was still an excellent pick, considering some of the players chosen after him. Yonggarius has been pushing out some really good media, and that’s always a good sign for a prospect. I know a lot of people had him as the #1 WR on the board, so the fact that he fell all the way down here is amazing. Of course, the funny thing is the highest TPE WR in the class hasn’t even been drafted yet, so shame on both of these teams for passing on Witheblock. The thing is, all of these guys are so good, and they are like 2nd round talent, so they are all steals IMO. Maybe I’m just being extremely generous, but I think this pick was really good one, especially at the time.

Spot Grade: A-

Grade as of now: B

Only went down in value because of how much TPE Witheblock started earning.

Who cares how much TPE someone else started earning? Lim is a valuable member of the Dallas War Room and I'm sure is equally valuable to a Colorado team that just won an Ultimus. He's a great guy and having worked with him Dallas the past two seasons he's one of the brightest players in the league. Someone else earning more TPE doesn't make it a bad pick, he's still a great guy and a great earner. Screw some extra marginal 10TPE.

Pick 9 -

With the 33rd overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the Baltimore Hawks select… OL Byron Dolls of the Portland Pythons!

TPE at Draft time: 212 TPE

TPE as of now: 368 TPE

Improvement: 156 TPE

Byron Dolls was extremely high TPE for a OL, and was presumed to be the first OL off the board. And of course, he was a Python. That’s always nice. The Pythons drafted a lot of good OL, and they were a major part of our success. I’m glad he was on my team. He was an active user in the DSFL, but it seems like he’s not earning like he used to. Unfortunate, but this isn’t a surprise. OL retention rate isn’t that high, and it’s a league wide problem. The position doesn’t have much incentive to play, so kudos to all of these lads for volunteering to choose this profession. That being said, He’s still the second best OL in terms of TPE in this class, I believe (can we get a fact check?). So not bad value, but the Hawks make their worst pick so far. This was a good pick at the time, but the lack of improvement in TPE is scary. You want that number to be much higher, or else it can’t be a good grade.

Spot Grade: A

Grade as of now: C-

The Hawks’ streak of good picks come to an end. RIP.

I've written multiple articles about OL. At 368TPE Dolls is a huge improvement over the bot OL that most teams run. His earning is still great - the more he earns the more valuable he becomes. He's already a huge win over a bot.

He's also a great guy who is active in the OL Discord and helps motivate the new batches of OL we have who are changing the league at a breakneck pace.

This same comment comes for all my OL friends who you trashed. Golladay, Buckley, and Tommy - y'all are all the future of OL and have done great things for the position.

Pick 6 -

With the 42nd overall selection in the S22 NSFL draft, the Austin Copperheads select… RB Kichwa Jones of the Dallas Birddogs!

TPE at Draft time: 219 TPE

TPE as of now: 375 TPE

Improvement: 156 TPE

What the fuck. At the time, I thought, holy shit, Austin’s getting all these amazing players that just keep falling to them. How does this keep happening? I need to go eat lunch, but before that, let me tell you how weird this was. This dude had 219 TPE, which was like second best among all RBs. Tied with Acura Skyline. Who still hasn’t been picked. Neither has Tatsu Nakumar. So many good players left. Teams really disrespecting RB. It’s just pathetic. These guys are really good players, and they are falling a lot. Unfortunately, Kichwa Jones didn’t earn as much, and he fell off. A really good pick at the time, but unfortunately, it didn’t pan out.

Spot Grade: A

Grade as of now: C

Come on Austin, I love you guys, and you could have gotten me with this pick, but you picked an RB that doesn’t even earn that much anymore. I mean, come on. Dermot needs to be replaced anyways. He sucks.

First, Dermot is still a 1000TPE CB even after the first round of regression.

Second, Kichwa is great. He's active, earning, and is one of the funniest guys in the Dallas LR. He's going to be a great Leaf Jr. replacement. If your only knock on this is because Austin didn't take A CB when they have the highest TPE earner in history who just barely touched regression then I don't know what more to say. Dermot still has several good seasons left before I take him out behind the shed and put him down. Kichwa is a great addition who is going to make a frightening pair in the backfield with Mendonca this year.

For any people I didn't praise, I still like you all. The league is a great place. TPE only matters to some extent. If you're still active and earning - and if you're reading this you definitely are - you were a great pick.