Now that we’ve covered the top half of each conference, let’s take a look into the groups that are staying home from the playoffs right now. It’s time to look in depth and see who is a diamond in the rough and who is just….rough. As it stands, all three of these NSFC teams were eliminated by the end of week 15 and draft order was basically set then too, given the incredible unlikelihood of a Week 16 Philly win over Colorado in Colorado. So, let’s peer inside and see what we can find. I hope it’s not spiders.
Yellowknife Wraiths
Colby Jack QB S22 794 TPE
Patrik Money DT S22 741 TPE
Kai Sakura WR S23 610 TPE
Acura Skyline RB S22 771 TPE
James Cho DE D22 750 TPE
Johnny Hellzapoppin S S22 720 TPE
Douglas Quaid LB S21 944 TPE
Marvin Leonard CB S17 1135 TPE (25% Regression Incoming)
Top 5 Unprotected:
Magnus Valdyr S S22 570 TPE
Susan Cash Jr WR S22 595 TPE
L’Carpetron Dookmarriot S S23 395 TPE (IA?)
Dougie Smalls K S21 707 TPE
Zee Rechs TE S22 485 TPE
The Facts:
Yellowknife finished the season in 6-10 and 4th in the NFSC (so named in honor of Colabear). This would grant them the #5 pick in the draft, but they traded it and their 2nd round pick to the expansion team from New York. The Wraiths in return own ALL of New York’s first four rounds (including a top 2 pick) as well as retaining their own 3rd and 4th. Yellowknife can lose up to two players in the expansion draft.
The Analysis:
On the bright side the Wraiths have some pieces. QB is set for a long while. They have half a good offense around him. They have half a good defense on the other side, but have glaring holes at every single level. And thanks to dealing with the expansion Silverbacks, they added a plethora of picks. On the other side….they’re missing the other halves of these units. They need a 4th D-Lineman now and another one immediately afterwards. They need another WR now. They need another CB last season. They need another LB very soon. Their best players are aging, banned, and/or inactive. Their DSFL stash is LITERALLY empty of anything worthwhile. Their cupboard is just straight up bare. Their conference mates are mostly passing them by. Are things as dire as say Philadelphia? No. They’re not that bad off (sorry Philly). They don’t need to be desperate yet. They just need to hit on most of what they swing at in the next two drafts. A good trade deal for a bolstering of talent couldn’t hurt either if they can do so wisely. And all that is true before I consider that they’re going to lose two of these players.
So who is it? Depending on the team, it’s either gonna be Valdyr or Cash. And you’re gonna have to outguess your fellow expansion GMs because the other one is getting protected when one gets picked.The truth is that yellowknife badly needs both players and would like to interest you in a Mike Lee instead but he ain’t gonna cut it today. So I don’t know which of the two gets taken but after the other gets protected, it’s going to be a tossup between young Safety (and an actual active Key & Peele name player) L’Carpetron Dookmarriot and an active kicker in Dougie Smalls. The prior will give you a more valuable player (but with a much larger supply of replacements). The latter will give you a relatively high level Kicker and viable War Room member if he’s inclined. I’d say this one comes down to the interview entirely.
No matter which two of those four end up on different rosters, it’s gonna hurt the Wraiths. And with no bench to pull from, they were going to need to alter their draft plans based on this. At least….that and about 500 more words about what they ended to do was what I wrote before they did exactly that. As of late last night here, the Wraiths made a blockbuster trade that sent young QB Sam Howitzer to New York in addition to the Ykw 1st and 2nd as well as the San Jose 4th. They seem to net a 3rd round clean, a massively increased 4th, and a couple bumps up in the 1st and 2nd in this deal. On paper this may not seem like that huge a gain but it's a very practical one. I feel like the biggest loser in this trade is me, because now I have to rewrite about 60% of two teams’ sections. How could you? Honestly though this is a pretty solid trade for YKW. For what was essentially a spare part (imagine the privilege of having a Grade A QB prospect as a spare part) they’ve improved draft position in numerous rounds and added a new pick. And in particular, they jettisoned that San Jose 4th to move up to the very top of that round. The value of the 43rd or 44th pick is going to likely be a noticeable jump on the 50-54th. For a team half ready to go and half in a rebuild all at the same time, this was a great move. Throw in the fact that they are essentially doing this while suffering the hangover of having won it all last season and you have a team that has to be applauded for aggressive improvement efforts. Now the key is going to be hitting the shots they take here. They’ve snatched a solid situation out of the jaws of a tenuous one and have a little bit more room to breathe. That said, Yellowknife also ruined the context for the Hamilton reference I made for them so now they don’t get one. I hope you’re satisfied.
Baltimore Hawks
Darrel Williams RB S20 1031 TPE
Derred deVille LB S22 687 TPE
Chika Fujiwara QB S21 870 TPE
Dex Kennedy LB S22 648 TPE
Eldrick Avery CB S22 765 TPE
Ben Stackinpaper CB S22 646 TPE
James Lewandowski TE S21 650 TPE
CJ Riley S S23 410 TPE
Doug Howlett WR S23 551 TPE (Senddown)
The Best 5 Unprotected:
Datsum Phastbals K S23 422 TPE
Arik Eller DE S23 354 TPE
Nuniq Annastesia DT S22 401 TPE
Byron Dolls OL S22 530 TPE
Chris Cross WR S21 517 TPE (IA)
The Facts:
The Baltimore Hawks ended their season at 3-13, and do not own their 1st round pick (San Jose) 3rd round pick (Chicago), or 4th round pick (Austin). They do own the Austin 1st round pick however. Additionally, the Hawks own the 1st and 3rd round picks for Austin in S26. The Hawks already have an extra protection slot because they lost a GM to expansion. Per expansion draft rules, the Hawks can only lose 1 additional player.
The Analysis:
First of all Baltimore is a fucking YOUNG team. S20’s Darrel Williams is the 3rd oldest player on the team. They are well set for the future, even after getting hit harder by expansion than anyone else. Not only did they lose Dewalt, but they also lost Highaschdi’s Nick Kaepercolin to expansion GM as well. It just doesn’t show up in the factoids because his contract expires at the end of this season, so he walks cleanly. The big downside there is that its a 1-2 punch at the same position or WR. That said, their 9th protection slot was used on a senddown WR who’s already well over 500 tpe. It’s a fucking body blow for sure to lose a pair of WRs that are 900+ and 700+. However, I think that it’s gonna be a bit of a smaller hit than one might expect. Of note is Lesean Paris Crooks who opted for free agency after confusion over the process. Who they lose is almost inconsequential to the team’s plans. They’re just ready to take another shot to the chin and move on. Probably pretty important to that player though. Even so, this is something they have to deal with. Expansion doesn’t discriminate between the sinners and the saints. It just takes and it takes and it takes. So who is it gonna be? Gun to my head? I think Dolls is moving, but as you’ll find I tend to lean towards active OL players due to their importance. Expect it to be early in the expansion draft, too since 2 of 4 GMs came directly from here. I imagine from there that the Hawks will protect Annestesia and lose their kicker. Maybe.
Unless one of the teams jump-jumps to take IA WR Chris Kross, which not only seems very unlikely to me but also would be head bashing dumb with the other talent available, the Hawks will be able to field some midrange receiving and rely on an above average TE to get the passing game through this season. With a plethora of running talent available, they’ll be able to lean heavily on that side of the offense. Don’t be shocked if games regularly feature Baltimore running 35+ times behind 3 separate backs. Williams will get the lion’s share as the big gun but I expect S24 draftees Mai Fukushu and Steve Rogers to also mix in heavily. It’s what I would do. Brute force the strats and make sure each guy gets a starting role in a playset. I expect the rookies to also fill in the WR3 role. They won’t be a high scoring team but they’ll move the ball. Defensively this team is basically one DL and one LB form being an absolute monster. The heavy running strat I’m expecting should actually help the defense out and this team could be looking at some level of immediate improvement this coming season. On the path they’re on, they look like they could be a contender in the next 3-4 seasons. In typical historical boring ass Hawks’ fashion of course. You will get 12 consecutive 8 yard plays and you will like it. Their defense is gonna punch you in the mouth. Their offense is also gonna punch you in the mouth. Their children will punch you in the mouth. It’s the Baltimore Way. Meanwhile, expect them to try to cover these holes in the upcoming draft. If they can snag a quality WR, LB, and DL they’ll be on their way right away. Barring any kind of position switch from say….Roger or Fukushu, that is. I’m not saying that’s gonna happen. I’m just saying….long term 3 RBs with an emerging QB is probably not the plan. All in all, shit looks real good for a 3-10 team who is losing their CoGM, #1 WR, CB of the future, and an unnamed 3rd person to expansion. If you feelin’ like a Hawk, go on and brush your shoulders off.
Philadelphia Liberty
Randy Vuxta WR S20 801 TPE
Brandon Booker CB S22 770 TPE
Brock Phoenix QB S19 1118 TPE
Flash Panda WR S21 791 TPE
Matt Cross S S22 771 TPE
Wesley Eriksen S S22 671 TPE
Simon Tremblay OL S21 571 TPE
Eugene Smoothie S S23 577 TPE
The Best 5 Unprotected:
Karmichael Hunt K S23 447 TPE
Spike Suzuki LB S22 435 TPE
Tycker Om DE S23 397 TPE (IA)
Avon Blocksdale TE S19 724 TPE
Dre Matthews WR S23 421 TPE (Senddown)
The Facts:
Philadelphia finished the year 3-13, making their pick the #3 behind the expansion teams at 1 and 2. They own all of their own picks in addition to the 3rd round Austin pick. They can lose two players in the expansion draft.
The Analysis:
The Liberty seem caught between a rock and a hard place. The QB is top five. The receiving core is average but deep. The run game should be a bit above average. They have a dynamite human OL player. The parts that make up the offense overall is probably top half of the league at best. The D-Line is okay at most and lacks punch. The LB core is okayish and thin. The secondary is a couple of above average pieces carrying the rest. Kicking is fine. The return game is probably the strongest aspect of the team. All in all though, Philly is a team that doesn’t really have the manpower to just take an expansion hit. It’s entirely possible that they tried to hide Matthews, hoping that the expansion teams wouldn’t notice a stud WR senddown. Sorry for tattling. I’m poor now and I have bills to pay.
So who do they lose? Probably Matthews. Barring any kind of “I refuse to play for this team/at this position suddenly” type situations from a Philly WR ….. ahem …. again ….. Matthews will be the first person snatched up from this team. After that it’s tricky. Suzuki is more replaceable (in fact his replacement is waiting in the wings already in the form of a previous GM). Om is super young, IA, and can be plugged into the DLine is a solid piece for the next 6-7 seasons. And/or when you actually do build your line up, he can be shipped off to teams that need it for good price. Hunt is a kicker that’s active. Blocksdale is probably a flight risk for any team that drafts him. To me the choice is protecting Hunt and securing your kicking for a long time. As important as DL is, there are exponentially more DL creates floating around at any given time. An active Kicker is simply harder to replace.
After it’s done, Philly really is gonna need some more firepower on defense. If I can be real a second, for just a millisecond, any hope they have of making a title push during Phoenix’s career is fleeting at best. He’ll hit regression at the end of S25 so this core has until realistically the end of S28. And it’s not just the D. They’re gonna need a new RB soon and I just shipped the stud WR they were relying on off to either Germany or Brooklyn. 1st class to Brooklyn or Coach to Frankfurt by the way. Gotta cut back on expenses. But they do need the D to step it up a couple notches. They need a new Corner and Safety pronto. They’re already lacking in one and the other is about to get thinner as D’Attoria nears retirement. This group at best is looking at needing at least two years of their four year window to bulk up enough to actually compete. I think they’re in a spot where they need to consider making a few big splashy moves to shore up the secondary for the duration of their window, or just start blowing it up now. Otherwise they’re gonna be stuck between 4-7 wins while the other current bottom dwellers pass them by and the Brock Phoenix era will end with a whimper. Then again…..one team that was in trouble already changed their fortunes from the time I started writing this til now so it’s not like Philly is dead in the water. They have the chance to rise up. Can their new GMs do it?
So it looks like life is going to get more difficult for one team and just more challenging for another. Then Yellowknife hangs in the balance. It’s a very strong likelihood that their next push will be built on the back of this draft and that trade. So the question is not just what will happen, but how it will play out. The climb out of the bottom half of this conference is a whole hell of a lot more difficult than it once was. Especially given the monsters it looks like they’re facing when they get there.
Yellowknife Wraiths Colby Jack QB S22 794 TPE
Patrik Money DT S22 741 TPE
Kai Sakura WR S23 610 TPE
Acura Skyline RB S22 771 TPE
James Cho DE D22 750 TPE
Johnny Hellzapoppin S S22 720 TPE
Douglas Quaid LB S21 944 TPE
Marvin Leonard CB S17 1135 TPE (25% Regression Incoming)
Top 5 Unprotected:
Magnus Valdyr S S22 570 TPE
Susan Cash Jr WR S22 595 TPE
L’Carpetron Dookmarriot S S23 395 TPE (IA?)
Dougie Smalls K S21 707 TPE
Zee Rechs TE S22 485 TPE
The Facts:
Yellowknife finished the season in 6-10 and 4th in the NFSC (so named in honor of Colabear). This would grant them the #5 pick in the draft, but they traded it and their 2nd round pick to the expansion team from New York. The Wraiths in return own ALL of New York’s first four rounds (including a top 2 pick) as well as retaining their own 3rd and 4th. Yellowknife can lose up to two players in the expansion draft.
The Analysis:
On the bright side the Wraiths have some pieces. QB is set for a long while. They have half a good offense around him. They have half a good defense on the other side, but have glaring holes at every single level. And thanks to dealing with the expansion Silverbacks, they added a plethora of picks. On the other side….they’re missing the other halves of these units. They need a 4th D-Lineman now and another one immediately afterwards. They need another WR now. They need another CB last season. They need another LB very soon. Their best players are aging, banned, and/or inactive. Their DSFL stash is LITERALLY empty of anything worthwhile. Their cupboard is just straight up bare. Their conference mates are mostly passing them by. Are things as dire as say Philadelphia? No. They’re not that bad off (sorry Philly). They don’t need to be desperate yet. They just need to hit on most of what they swing at in the next two drafts. A good trade deal for a bolstering of talent couldn’t hurt either if they can do so wisely. And all that is true before I consider that they’re going to lose two of these players.
So who is it? Depending on the team, it’s either gonna be Valdyr or Cash. And you’re gonna have to outguess your fellow expansion GMs because the other one is getting protected when one gets picked.The truth is that yellowknife badly needs both players and would like to interest you in a Mike Lee instead but he ain’t gonna cut it today. So I don’t know which of the two gets taken but after the other gets protected, it’s going to be a tossup between young Safety (and an actual active Key & Peele name player) L’Carpetron Dookmarriot and an active kicker in Dougie Smalls. The prior will give you a more valuable player (but with a much larger supply of replacements). The latter will give you a relatively high level Kicker and viable War Room member if he’s inclined. I’d say this one comes down to the interview entirely.
No matter which two of those four end up on different rosters, it’s gonna hurt the Wraiths. And with no bench to pull from, they were going to need to alter their draft plans based on this. At least….that and about 500 more words about what they ended to do was what I wrote before they did exactly that. As of late last night here, the Wraiths made a blockbuster trade that sent young QB Sam Howitzer to New York in addition to the Ykw 1st and 2nd as well as the San Jose 4th. They seem to net a 3rd round clean, a massively increased 4th, and a couple bumps up in the 1st and 2nd in this deal. On paper this may not seem like that huge a gain but it's a very practical one. I feel like the biggest loser in this trade is me, because now I have to rewrite about 60% of two teams’ sections. How could you? Honestly though this is a pretty solid trade for YKW. For what was essentially a spare part (imagine the privilege of having a Grade A QB prospect as a spare part) they’ve improved draft position in numerous rounds and added a new pick. And in particular, they jettisoned that San Jose 4th to move up to the very top of that round. The value of the 43rd or 44th pick is going to likely be a noticeable jump on the 50-54th. For a team half ready to go and half in a rebuild all at the same time, this was a great move. Throw in the fact that they are essentially doing this while suffering the hangover of having won it all last season and you have a team that has to be applauded for aggressive improvement efforts. Now the key is going to be hitting the shots they take here. They’ve snatched a solid situation out of the jaws of a tenuous one and have a little bit more room to breathe. That said, Yellowknife also ruined the context for the Hamilton reference I made for them so now they don’t get one. I hope you’re satisfied.
Baltimore Hawks Darrel Williams RB S20 1031 TPE
Derred deVille LB S22 687 TPE
Chika Fujiwara QB S21 870 TPE
Dex Kennedy LB S22 648 TPE
Eldrick Avery CB S22 765 TPE
Ben Stackinpaper CB S22 646 TPE
James Lewandowski TE S21 650 TPE
CJ Riley S S23 410 TPE
Doug Howlett WR S23 551 TPE (Senddown)
The Best 5 Unprotected:
Datsum Phastbals K S23 422 TPE
Arik Eller DE S23 354 TPE
Nuniq Annastesia DT S22 401 TPE
Byron Dolls OL S22 530 TPE
Chris Cross WR S21 517 TPE (IA)
The Facts:
The Baltimore Hawks ended their season at 3-13, and do not own their 1st round pick (San Jose) 3rd round pick (Chicago), or 4th round pick (Austin). They do own the Austin 1st round pick however. Additionally, the Hawks own the 1st and 3rd round picks for Austin in S26. The Hawks already have an extra protection slot because they lost a GM to expansion. Per expansion draft rules, the Hawks can only lose 1 additional player.
The Analysis:
First of all Baltimore is a fucking YOUNG team. S20’s Darrel Williams is the 3rd oldest player on the team. They are well set for the future, even after getting hit harder by expansion than anyone else. Not only did they lose Dewalt, but they also lost Highaschdi’s Nick Kaepercolin to expansion GM as well. It just doesn’t show up in the factoids because his contract expires at the end of this season, so he walks cleanly. The big downside there is that its a 1-2 punch at the same position or WR. That said, their 9th protection slot was used on a senddown WR who’s already well over 500 tpe. It’s a fucking body blow for sure to lose a pair of WRs that are 900+ and 700+. However, I think that it’s gonna be a bit of a smaller hit than one might expect. Of note is Lesean Paris Crooks who opted for free agency after confusion over the process. Who they lose is almost inconsequential to the team’s plans. They’re just ready to take another shot to the chin and move on. Probably pretty important to that player though. Even so, this is something they have to deal with. Expansion doesn’t discriminate between the sinners and the saints. It just takes and it takes and it takes. So who is it gonna be? Gun to my head? I think Dolls is moving, but as you’ll find I tend to lean towards active OL players due to their importance. Expect it to be early in the expansion draft, too since 2 of 4 GMs came directly from here. I imagine from there that the Hawks will protect Annestesia and lose their kicker. Maybe.
Unless one of the teams jump-jumps to take IA WR Chris Kross, which not only seems very unlikely to me but also would be head bashing dumb with the other talent available, the Hawks will be able to field some midrange receiving and rely on an above average TE to get the passing game through this season. With a plethora of running talent available, they’ll be able to lean heavily on that side of the offense. Don’t be shocked if games regularly feature Baltimore running 35+ times behind 3 separate backs. Williams will get the lion’s share as the big gun but I expect S24 draftees Mai Fukushu and Steve Rogers to also mix in heavily. It’s what I would do. Brute force the strats and make sure each guy gets a starting role in a playset. I expect the rookies to also fill in the WR3 role. They won’t be a high scoring team but they’ll move the ball. Defensively this team is basically one DL and one LB form being an absolute monster. The heavy running strat I’m expecting should actually help the defense out and this team could be looking at some level of immediate improvement this coming season. On the path they’re on, they look like they could be a contender in the next 3-4 seasons. In typical historical boring ass Hawks’ fashion of course. You will get 12 consecutive 8 yard plays and you will like it. Their defense is gonna punch you in the mouth. Their offense is also gonna punch you in the mouth. Their children will punch you in the mouth. It’s the Baltimore Way. Meanwhile, expect them to try to cover these holes in the upcoming draft. If they can snag a quality WR, LB, and DL they’ll be on their way right away. Barring any kind of position switch from say….Roger or Fukushu, that is. I’m not saying that’s gonna happen. I’m just saying….long term 3 RBs with an emerging QB is probably not the plan. All in all, shit looks real good for a 3-10 team who is losing their CoGM, #1 WR, CB of the future, and an unnamed 3rd person to expansion. If you feelin’ like a Hawk, go on and brush your shoulders off.
Philadelphia Liberty Randy Vuxta WR S20 801 TPE
Brandon Booker CB S22 770 TPE
Brock Phoenix QB S19 1118 TPE
Flash Panda WR S21 791 TPE
Matt Cross S S22 771 TPE
Wesley Eriksen S S22 671 TPE
Simon Tremblay OL S21 571 TPE
Eugene Smoothie S S23 577 TPE
The Best 5 Unprotected:
Karmichael Hunt K S23 447 TPE
Spike Suzuki LB S22 435 TPE
Tycker Om DE S23 397 TPE (IA)
Avon Blocksdale TE S19 724 TPE
Dre Matthews WR S23 421 TPE (Senddown)
The Facts:
Philadelphia finished the year 3-13, making their pick the #3 behind the expansion teams at 1 and 2. They own all of their own picks in addition to the 3rd round Austin pick. They can lose two players in the expansion draft.
The Analysis:
The Liberty seem caught between a rock and a hard place. The QB is top five. The receiving core is average but deep. The run game should be a bit above average. They have a dynamite human OL player. The parts that make up the offense overall is probably top half of the league at best. The D-Line is okay at most and lacks punch. The LB core is okayish and thin. The secondary is a couple of above average pieces carrying the rest. Kicking is fine. The return game is probably the strongest aspect of the team. All in all though, Philly is a team that doesn’t really have the manpower to just take an expansion hit. It’s entirely possible that they tried to hide Matthews, hoping that the expansion teams wouldn’t notice a stud WR senddown. Sorry for tattling. I’m poor now and I have bills to pay.
So who do they lose? Probably Matthews. Barring any kind of “I refuse to play for this team/at this position suddenly” type situations from a Philly WR ….. ahem …. again ….. Matthews will be the first person snatched up from this team. After that it’s tricky. Suzuki is more replaceable (in fact his replacement is waiting in the wings already in the form of a previous GM). Om is super young, IA, and can be plugged into the DLine is a solid piece for the next 6-7 seasons. And/or when you actually do build your line up, he can be shipped off to teams that need it for good price. Hunt is a kicker that’s active. Blocksdale is probably a flight risk for any team that drafts him. To me the choice is protecting Hunt and securing your kicking for a long time. As important as DL is, there are exponentially more DL creates floating around at any given time. An active Kicker is simply harder to replace.
After it’s done, Philly really is gonna need some more firepower on defense. If I can be real a second, for just a millisecond, any hope they have of making a title push during Phoenix’s career is fleeting at best. He’ll hit regression at the end of S25 so this core has until realistically the end of S28. And it’s not just the D. They’re gonna need a new RB soon and I just shipped the stud WR they were relying on off to either Germany or Brooklyn. 1st class to Brooklyn or Coach to Frankfurt by the way. Gotta cut back on expenses. But they do need the D to step it up a couple notches. They need a new Corner and Safety pronto. They’re already lacking in one and the other is about to get thinner as D’Attoria nears retirement. This group at best is looking at needing at least two years of their four year window to bulk up enough to actually compete. I think they’re in a spot where they need to consider making a few big splashy moves to shore up the secondary for the duration of their window, or just start blowing it up now. Otherwise they’re gonna be stuck between 4-7 wins while the other current bottom dwellers pass them by and the Brock Phoenix era will end with a whimper. Then again…..one team that was in trouble already changed their fortunes from the time I started writing this til now so it’s not like Philly is dead in the water. They have the chance to rise up. Can their new GMs do it?
So it looks like life is going to get more difficult for one team and just more challenging for another. Then Yellowknife hangs in the balance. It’s a very strong likelihood that their next push will be built on the back of this draft and that trade. So the question is not just what will happen, but how it will play out. The climb out of the bottom half of this conference is a whole hell of a lot more difficult than it once was. Especially given the monsters it looks like they’re facing when they get there.
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