*% Chance to Make the Hall of Fame - Like half of a model basically

[iStegosauruz]

Something has to be wrong with TE - how could Heath be -3% with a TEOTY award, a top 10 season for catches, and several pro bowls where specified a lack of those is the issue, when Daniel George has none of those and is a 9% chance? I believe Heath has more stats in about every category than George as well so that has me perplexed haha, are ultimus' perhaps weighted too heavily given that a player can see significant individual success without them?

Like you kinda answered your own internal question though and this is something I addressed repeatedly when talking about the players who ended up in the negatives at every stage of the article. Like multiple times. Negative doesn't imply you have a trash chance to make the Hall of Fame, it implies that there's a glitch in the model I really haven't ironed out. 

Lets look at the specific situation with Tight End. When the regression runs and tries to fit the input to the "line" of what makes a Hall of Fame Tight end it only has three people to compare to - Blaze, L'Alto, and DiMirio. They all played (mostly) in a time pre-S22 and an explosion of max earning, vertical threat Tight Ends that serve as true offensive weapons. They also played in a time with just generally less competition for awards and probowl spots. As a result, the model credits them with 12 (DiMirio), 10 (L'Alto), and 8 (Blaze) probowls apiece. Thats more than any other active Tight End has by a margin of, at minimum, 3. So modern Tight Ends are already playing at a discrepancy when the model takes the snapshot in time and tries to compare volume of probowls. Its conceivable that because you're headed into regression in a season you never crack L'Alto's 10 probowls. That DOES NOT mean you won't be a Hall of Famer when all is said and done, it means the model has a hard time comparing you because it has no data points from a modern era where by nature of there just being more competition you aren't likely to hit that peak. Thats the first knock - you start at an innate disadvantage in trying to make up ground. This manifests itself in multiple positions where we just don't have a ton of modern comps yet because the HOF has only been around since S23 and there are only like 50 players across all position groups enshrined in it. Tight Ends are inherently going to have low values until I either weight more heavily by era played in or until more modern Tight Ends eventually make the Hall. 

Now the big question is why George sits at 9% chance to your negative value. The issue comes from how the model interprets statistics that qualify for you for a top-10 category. You literally address this in your post when you mention you have more stats than him in every category. You're right! And thats why the model has some issues. It takes your 7th place ranking for catches in a season and goes "Wow, this was an incredible season. But why hasn't he done it again? Why didn't he win more awards? Why doesn't he have an Ultimus?" Then it gets in its own head and spins its wheels and can't come up with a reason and so it tanks your value. It essentially fucks itself over. Even more simply put because two of the TEs in the Hall - Blaze and L'Alto - hardly show up at all on top-10 lists (and neither do on any top-10 season list) but have both won significantly more awards than you have it decides your trash because you've got technically an infinite amount more credit for top-10 seasons but less awards Like it can't rationalize the two issues. 

Why doesn't it do this with George? Because with a lack of other inputs he doesn't confuse the model. He's like a 0% player besides one thing that ticks up his value. You technically have a resume much different than most of what it looks at with Tight Ends and it doesn't know how to interpret that so it tanks your eventual final metric because like its trying to tell me "this isn't the same as the others," etc. 

Basically thats a lot of mumbo jumbo for like comparatively to other TEs in your era you've been incredible but like it can't compare you to them and so somehow tanks you into the negatives. 

So yes, tight end has a problem. I know it does. I've repeatedly said as much. George essentially gets credit above you because he's almost a "null" player. He has one Ultimus which boosts him a decent bit since it gets him 1/3 to the average amount of Ultimus titles a HOF Tight End has currently. There is a big boost to that. He has nothing that the model can't wrap its head around and as such would tank his like "ranking/value" or however you want to put it. You do. Can I fix this? Probably and I'm working on de-linking some of the top-10 categories with awards for different positions and changing up how eras weight a bit. 

A much briefer and less technical explanation of "the model fucked itself because its struggling to compare something thats entirely different than it has seen before" was readily available throughout the piece. 


But like this is a work in progress. Its not that Ultimus wins are weighted too highly its that like you just have a different resume than any TE before you so its struggling to compare you. This is a total mind fuck to talk about to be fair. Like why do good players get knocked? Cause its a new era and I tried to keep the weighting on eras fairly light for now. Can adjust it more down the road but like I don't want to go too far too early and have @zaynzk see his sorry player on the cusp of getting in.