*% Chance to Make the Hall of Fame - Like half of a model basically

[iStegosauruz]

Something has to be wrong with TE - how could Heath be -3% with a TEOTY award, a top 10 season for catches, and several pro bowls where specified a lack of those is the issue, when Daniel George has none of those and is a 9% chance? I believe Heath has more stats in about every category than George as well so that has me perplexed haha, are ultimus' perhaps weighted too heavily given that a player can see significant individual success without them?

Let’s be -% chance players together Thor, don’t leave me at the bottom like this

Making a second comment for this separate from the one for Thor because although its a similar issue its just cleaner to explain separately. So basically the model takes that "snapshot in time" of what players look like now and try to compare them to current guys in the HOF. In terms of how the like career and season top-10 lists are input for kickers you're a bit below the three HOF kickers in all three but still like fairly close. The issue comes in that comparatively it credits you for one award while the lowest it credits a HOF'er for is 5. So you're close in production but pretty far behind in awards (and probowls too for that matter). This is a new phenomenon that a lot of positions are finding especially post S22 - there is more competition for awards and probowl slots because the positions are so ridiculously saturated. We haven't had any players from this era enter the Hall yet, so there's nothing to compare y'all to that really resembles y'all. 

This leads the model to have no clue how to interpret y'all. It can't compare your overall production and so it decides to instead tank you - you don't "fit" the "line" of what its looking for. This is fixable - I have to really heavily weight by eras (or wait until more modern players make the Hall and the "line" normalizes), and thats something thats quite complex and finicky. Until then we've got players who are having great careers - Bowie, Watts, McDairmid, Evans, etc. - who are "new" in terms of how their resumes look and as a result get smacked around a bit by the model because they don't fit with what its expecting to see. Thats why older players fit fairly well - think Saba in WRs, Gump in RBs. They accumulated resumes during (mostly) a different era of the league which allows them to fit the expectation the model has for the Hall. Once more players from this post S22 boom make it in with resumes that more fit this era the model will move towards the midpoint between the two and modern players will shoot up these charts.