Looking at the season 2 draft, there are several factors to consider when you think about steals and busts. It was a big draft with many different players and positions. Offensive Line was everyone's biggest need and so a majority of the picks came from that position, while things like QB and RB had seemingly been filled already.
In regards to this article I will look at two things, TPE earned and the statistics of players. I will put more emphasis on TPE earned since I believe that is the true value here. A draft steal and bust should be considered according to long term effects and TPE trends can already show whether someone will be good five seasons from now. I also want to point out that the TPE totals may be outdated by now but writing this took a bit of time. I mainly used this for TPE values (http://i.imgur.com/N5dzjjc.png).
Now then, let's look at some of the players I want to highlight:
Steals:
S Torque Lewith
Lewith was originally drafted as a Quarterback, which meant that he was picked very late in the draft - 87th in fact. Lewith then switched positions and became a safety, immediately taking over a starting role for the Yeti. Just by that virtue, he could end up the biggest steal due to his draft position. Lewith has 106 TPE, which was significantly higher than most people taken so late in the draft and his activity has been very good, making him a prime contender to be a huge steal.
In terms of statistical output, Lewith has impressed. He is 5th among all safeties (not just rookies) in tackles with 42 and also tied for 5th among all safeties in interceptions with two. He is also tied for 2nd among safeties with two sacks.
CB Rafael Reyes
Cornerback play is sometimes hard to be evaluated, as tackles often mean allowing a catch before then. Reyes was also a very late pick in the draft, going 85th overall and then being traded soon after. The trade might have been good for him, as he has some very productive numbers and his activity has been great as well, even surpassing Lewith with 118 TPE, the highest TPE number of anyone drafted after the first 7 rounds.
Reyes has been good statistically, with 33 tackle, two interceptions and three pass deflections.
OL Gadget Tech
Offensive Line was notoriously very important in this draft so many linemen were picked early on. One of the later ones could end up being one of the best picks, in Tech. He has been in the team of the week several times already this year and has been fantastic. His TPE is not extremely high, but still solid at 94, but his play on the field has really been impressive for someone drafted so late (63rd overall).
Tech is 7th among all offensive linemen with 33 pancakes. He has allowed 8 sacks, however, the 2nd highest in the league. So there is still quite a bit of room for improvement. Nonetheless, Tech has shown he belongs.
TE Rich Gucci
Gucci has been an impressive Tight End, a position that is very hard to perfect. With 153 TPE he far outshines his draft position (55th overall). While C. Gibson has been more impressive in terms of statistics, Gucci has been more active in getting TPE and therefore ended up on this list.
He was one of four tight ends picked in the draft and statistically he is the 2nd best one behind Gibson. Among all tight ends, he is 5th in receptions, 5th in yards, 3rd in touchdowns and 4th in pancakes.
WR Matthew Vincent
Vincent was drafted 52nd overall as the 6th wide receiver taken in the draft. His 159 TPE are excellent and it has shown on the field as well.
Vincent has 42 catches for 510 yards and one touchdown. While the one touchdown might not be very impressive, the other marks clearly are. Among all Wide Receivers he is 10th in catches and 12th in yards and in both categories he is 2nd among rookies (behind Fox North)
LB Luke Luechly
Luechly was a fairly impressive draft pick that was immediately seen as a steal coming out of the draft. He was only taken 40th overall but his 164 TPE are impressive.
He is 11th in the league in tackles with 57 and has an impressive ten sacks on the season (2nd most among linebackers).
RB Darlane Farlane
Farlane was the 2nd running back picked in the draft and while expectations were high on him, he has impressed far beyond them so far. As the 36th overall pick, Farlane has 152 TPE, but especially continues to impress on the field.
Farlane is first in the league in attempts and yards, with 239 attempts for 825 yards. Reaching the 1000 yard plateau won't be a challenge for him and he has a shot at breaking the yard record for running backs. He has been one of the most impressive rookies period and with the flashiness of the position you would have expected him to be taken much earlier.
And now let us look at some of the reaches or busts, which are definitely harder to find or pinpoint. I realize there are much more steals than busts but frankly, most players have been really good and so therefore there are more steals later in the draft than busts.
Busts:
S Roman Thomas
Thomas is far under the TPE totals of players taken around him in the draft, with 135 he is actually the lowest of the first two rounds (he was taken 15th overall). While his play on the field has been impressive enough, the TPE total is certainly a worry and something to keep an eye on.
He is 8th among safeties in tackles, behind someone like Lewith who was taken more than 70 spots later in the draft.
DE Enchilada Charlton
While many defensive ends have impressed so far this year, Charlton has been a disappointment. Drafted 19th overall, his 77 TPE are the lowest among the top 25 picks. In the first 6 rounds, only two players have less TPE.
On the field, Charlton is only 15th among Defensive Ends in tackles and his three sacks are only tied for 30th in the league.
S J. Masdival
Masdival was drafted 20th overall and while his 107 TPE don't look abysmal, it is still disappointing for someone taken that highly.
On the field, Masdival has disappointed sadly, being 14th among all safeties in tackles and not adding a single other thing to his statline, no sack, no pass deflection, no interception, nothing. In terms of production, Masdival might be one of the more disappointing picks of the first few rounds.
OL Alonzo Charles
While Charles has been good on the field, it is important to note one of the more disappointing picks in terms of TPE. Charles has barely accumulated any TPE and has not updated since July 22nd. He was picked 26nd overall and for that kind of high pick that is very disappointing.
While one might assume he will be terrible in coming seasons, this season has still been good on the field, he is 6th in the league in pancakes and only allowed 3 sacks so far.
$800,000 bonus because of the NSFLN article
GRADED
In regards to this article I will look at two things, TPE earned and the statistics of players. I will put more emphasis on TPE earned since I believe that is the true value here. A draft steal and bust should be considered according to long term effects and TPE trends can already show whether someone will be good five seasons from now. I also want to point out that the TPE totals may be outdated by now but writing this took a bit of time. I mainly used this for TPE values (http://i.imgur.com/N5dzjjc.png).
Now then, let's look at some of the players I want to highlight:
Steals:
S Torque Lewith
Lewith was originally drafted as a Quarterback, which meant that he was picked very late in the draft - 87th in fact. Lewith then switched positions and became a safety, immediately taking over a starting role for the Yeti. Just by that virtue, he could end up the biggest steal due to his draft position. Lewith has 106 TPE, which was significantly higher than most people taken so late in the draft and his activity has been very good, making him a prime contender to be a huge steal.
In terms of statistical output, Lewith has impressed. He is 5th among all safeties (not just rookies) in tackles with 42 and also tied for 5th among all safeties in interceptions with two. He is also tied for 2nd among safeties with two sacks.
CB Rafael Reyes
Cornerback play is sometimes hard to be evaluated, as tackles often mean allowing a catch before then. Reyes was also a very late pick in the draft, going 85th overall and then being traded soon after. The trade might have been good for him, as he has some very productive numbers and his activity has been great as well, even surpassing Lewith with 118 TPE, the highest TPE number of anyone drafted after the first 7 rounds.
Reyes has been good statistically, with 33 tackle, two interceptions and three pass deflections.
OL Gadget Tech
Offensive Line was notoriously very important in this draft so many linemen were picked early on. One of the later ones could end up being one of the best picks, in Tech. He has been in the team of the week several times already this year and has been fantastic. His TPE is not extremely high, but still solid at 94, but his play on the field has really been impressive for someone drafted so late (63rd overall).
Tech is 7th among all offensive linemen with 33 pancakes. He has allowed 8 sacks, however, the 2nd highest in the league. So there is still quite a bit of room for improvement. Nonetheless, Tech has shown he belongs.
TE Rich Gucci
Gucci has been an impressive Tight End, a position that is very hard to perfect. With 153 TPE he far outshines his draft position (55th overall). While C. Gibson has been more impressive in terms of statistics, Gucci has been more active in getting TPE and therefore ended up on this list.
He was one of four tight ends picked in the draft and statistically he is the 2nd best one behind Gibson. Among all tight ends, he is 5th in receptions, 5th in yards, 3rd in touchdowns and 4th in pancakes.
WR Matthew Vincent
Vincent was drafted 52nd overall as the 6th wide receiver taken in the draft. His 159 TPE are excellent and it has shown on the field as well.
Vincent has 42 catches for 510 yards and one touchdown. While the one touchdown might not be very impressive, the other marks clearly are. Among all Wide Receivers he is 10th in catches and 12th in yards and in both categories he is 2nd among rookies (behind Fox North)
LB Luke Luechly
Luechly was a fairly impressive draft pick that was immediately seen as a steal coming out of the draft. He was only taken 40th overall but his 164 TPE are impressive.
He is 11th in the league in tackles with 57 and has an impressive ten sacks on the season (2nd most among linebackers).
RB Darlane Farlane
Farlane was the 2nd running back picked in the draft and while expectations were high on him, he has impressed far beyond them so far. As the 36th overall pick, Farlane has 152 TPE, but especially continues to impress on the field.
Farlane is first in the league in attempts and yards, with 239 attempts for 825 yards. Reaching the 1000 yard plateau won't be a challenge for him and he has a shot at breaking the yard record for running backs. He has been one of the most impressive rookies period and with the flashiness of the position you would have expected him to be taken much earlier.
And now let us look at some of the reaches or busts, which are definitely harder to find or pinpoint. I realize there are much more steals than busts but frankly, most players have been really good and so therefore there are more steals later in the draft than busts.
Busts:
S Roman Thomas
Thomas is far under the TPE totals of players taken around him in the draft, with 135 he is actually the lowest of the first two rounds (he was taken 15th overall). While his play on the field has been impressive enough, the TPE total is certainly a worry and something to keep an eye on.
He is 8th among safeties in tackles, behind someone like Lewith who was taken more than 70 spots later in the draft.
DE Enchilada Charlton
While many defensive ends have impressed so far this year, Charlton has been a disappointment. Drafted 19th overall, his 77 TPE are the lowest among the top 25 picks. In the first 6 rounds, only two players have less TPE.
On the field, Charlton is only 15th among Defensive Ends in tackles and his three sacks are only tied for 30th in the league.
S J. Masdival
Masdival was drafted 20th overall and while his 107 TPE don't look abysmal, it is still disappointing for someone taken that highly.
On the field, Masdival has disappointed sadly, being 14th among all safeties in tackles and not adding a single other thing to his statline, no sack, no pass deflection, no interception, nothing. In terms of production, Masdival might be one of the more disappointing picks of the first few rounds.
OL Alonzo Charles
While Charles has been good on the field, it is important to note one of the more disappointing picks in terms of TPE. Charles has barely accumulated any TPE and has not updated since July 22nd. He was picked 26nd overall and for that kind of high pick that is very disappointing.
While one might assume he will be terrible in coming seasons, this season has still been good on the field, he is 6th in the league in pancakes and only allowed 3 sacks so far.
$800,000 bonus because of the NSFLN article
GRADED
