This is awesome analysis, great work! I think it's hard to use this to analyze how good of drafing teams have done in the past as free agency can make a huge difference in how a team's class will look. For instance, Kotasa leaving SJS in FA accounts for like 80+% of their ~1600 TPE deficit from having an average S25 draft class.
Speaking of which, I think it would be really interesting to plot these as "max earner equivalents" or something to normalize between draft classes. For instance, having one extra max earning S24 player right now can create a 1400-1500 TPE lead for a team, whereas having one extra max earning S29 player is only about 500-550 TPE. If you were able to divide each bar by how much TPE an "average" max earning player in each class has (which you'd have to define) you could get a number that's roughly uniform across draft classes. A team with +0.5 in S29 would be as good relative to an average S29 draft as a team with +0.5 in S25 would be compared to an average S25 class, whereas right now being +500 TPE in S25 is not nearly as good as being +500 TPE in S29 despite them looking the same on your plots. Hopefully that makes sense, happy to chat on Discord if it's unclear.
And then the final wrinkle to maybe add on top of that could be normalizing to the size of the draft class somehow, but I have a less clear idea of how to account for that.
Speaking of which, I think it would be really interesting to plot these as "max earner equivalents" or something to normalize between draft classes. For instance, having one extra max earning S24 player right now can create a 1400-1500 TPE lead for a team, whereas having one extra max earning S29 player is only about 500-550 TPE. If you were able to divide each bar by how much TPE an "average" max earning player in each class has (which you'd have to define) you could get a number that's roughly uniform across draft classes. A team with +0.5 in S29 would be as good relative to an average S29 draft as a team with +0.5 in S25 would be compared to an average S25 class, whereas right now being +500 TPE in S25 is not nearly as good as being +500 TPE in S29 despite them looking the same on your plots. Hopefully that makes sense, happy to chat on Discord if it's unclear.
And then the final wrinkle to maybe add on top of that could be normalizing to the size of the draft class somehow, but I have a less clear idea of how to account for that.
![[Image: 67893_s.png]](http://signavatar.com/67893_s.png)
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