(08-27-2017, 10:00 PM)tlk742 Wrote:Sure, I mean if you ignore trends then yeah 5-9 is very loud. But trends matter.
The fact is that the Wraiths played their blowout wins on offense early and then the defense stuttered and never recovered.
Here's the problem, when we look at stats in the raw, the Liberty have more tackles and the lowest sacks and tackles for loss, the wraiths have the second lowest in that category. But, when playing out the Outaws at home, the Liberty did way better a week later than the Wraiths did. Here's some numbers
Against the Liberty the Outlaws went 0/11 on third down
Against the Wraiths the Outlaws went 5/12 on third down
The Liberty generated more turnovers and kept all other numbers similar to the Wraiths. The wraiths have a great offense, that's for sure, but the trajectory of the defense is way worse than that of the Liberty.
I appreciate the detail in the analysis, but there's a reason extrapolation is frowned upon in statistics. The Wraiths acquired a 300 TPE LB with 5 games left in the season, and in those 5 games the exclusively played playoff teams (with the exception of the Liberty, who they beat). Do you think that sample is meaningful enough to draw real conclusions. This is obviously all for naught if Hackett leaves, but for comparing the teams as they are, I think the limitations with the data are relevant. I also don't think comparing matchups against common opponents is all that reliable just because of #AnyGivenSimday
[div align=center]
[div align=center]
[div align=center]