*Quick Regression Analysis

[infinitempg]

sometimes i get tired of playing with pictures and go back to my other hobby of playing with numbers

So I was trying to figure out how long I could possibly last in this league before retiring - so I threw together a spreadsheet based on @sapp2013's post here.

The regression rules are as follows:

7th season: 20% TPE loss
8th season: 25% TPE loss
9th season: 30% TPE loss
10th season: 40% TPE loss
11th season: 50% TPE loss
12th+ season: 75% TPE loss

Players are auto-retired when they regress below 150 TPE. The idea behind this rule is obvious and good - let players become good but force them to recreate before the league becomes stale. Recreates are already starting to become a major source of rookies, and this is good for both users and the league. I am not here to criticize the regression scheme we have here, just to look at it.

Here is the chart I made:



The first thing I noticed was that, even at maximum possible earning, players will barely escape auto-retirement in their 12th season and that the maximum playable seasons is 13. For the vast majority of users, they can survive fairly reasonably until their 12th season, at which they drop below 150 TPE and are auto-retired.

This goes to show that the 75% regression step is the career-killer it was intended to be - very high earners can go from a very respectable 400-500 TPE and drop below 150 TPE. The fact that it is based on percentages also helps less active players stay in the league longer, even at 50 TPE a season players can last until their 11th season (although they won't be very good).

With this knowledge, is it really necessary to say in the rulebook that the 15th season is the final one? Seems to me like auto-retirement should be enough.


***

A Few Other Notes:

I based the maximum amount of TPE earnings per season off of the new PPT rework where 201 TPE is the absolute maximum earnings per season.

From what I could tell, the highest earner in league history is Dermot Lavelle at 1363 TPE before regressing. To me, that seems a bit much but I don't know how TPE earning worked before I arrived to the forum in S5 so I have no idea. Probably extra TPE events or something.

This also serves as a pretty nice scale for TPE earnings over the career. I'm entering my 5th season (including DSFL) and at nearly 800 TPE I'm sitting pretty at that +150 TPE/season rate. If we take into account the fact I didn't do anything for half of my DSFL season, and the fact that I'm super active now, it could be argued I might hit 1000+ TPE before I regress. Dean Jackson and I are gunning for that kicker record (he's currently 110 TPE ahead but also 1 season ahead) of 996 by Turk, and I think both of us could hold that at some point.

I just realized I have no idea how DSFL counts towards regression - does that count as a zeroth season? I don't know. I started in DSFL S5 but I'm an S6 player? Do I not regress until S12 or S13? These are probably easy questions to answer and I just don't know where to look. I'm too lazy to add a zeroth season to the sheet though. I'd imagine it'd just make players retire a season earlier though.

It will be interesting to see how long the players fighting regression will last. By the time S11 and S12 hit, a lot of these players will have taken a huge step back. Will it still be fun to play? Will it be more interesting to create a new player? I don't know.

ps i just realized the top 3 TPE players from the S6 class are all so take that portland

[timeconsumer]

1) Yes the auto-retire does kind of screw with the 15th season thing. meh.
2) Dermot is a very unusual case. He is listed as a S2 player but joined like a day after the S1 draft and actually played every game in S1. He's basically a S1 player, rules were weird then.
3) Your first season in the DSFL does not count to regression. A S6 player will have their first regression hit in the offseason between S12 and S13.