05-21-2020, 12:49 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2020, 10:35 AM by yonggarius.)
Continuing on with the top destinations series, I'll be providing analysis about the S23 runningback draft class and each NSFL team's strategy in drafting them. Let's get to the article without further ado.
Before we start
The S23 running back class has 10 members in total. Among them, 7 had updated in the update of may 16th, the latest update at the point of this article. Those active players can be categorized into several tiers like the following.
Tier 1: Nicholas Ayers (186 TPE), Joseph Petrongolo (183 TPE), Danny King (181 TPE)
Tier 2: Keyenl McZeal (135 TPE), Running back (134 TPE), Quanter Skills (129 TPE), 3' Jeffrey (124 TPE)*
Tier 3: Bob Murphy (77 TPE)
*Jeffrey did not update in may 16th update, his latest update being the update of may 2nd. However, he was seen on the forums very recently.
Those seven, plus Jeffrey whom I think will update, are the running backs who will be drafted in the meaningful rounds of this season's NSFL draft.
One noticeable thing about this running back class is the fact that there are very distinctive TPE gap between tiers. There is a 48TPE gap between King and McZeal, and a 52 TPE gap between Jeffrey and Murphy. TPE gaps of this size means that there will be a significant TPE gap remaining if the lower tier players purchased tier 6 equipment, which is worth 30 TPE. So for that reason, I can't see the tiers changing until the draft day, barring some drastic events like newfoubd TPE claims or something of that scale. Hoeever, the order within the tiers can change very much, as TPE gap within the same tier is very small. So in convlusion, I can see top 3 running backs already, but can't determine which order they will go off the board, as they're basically in the same level. Now, to team by team analysis.
Chicago Butchers
The Featured running back in the Butchers offence is S22 Julio Tiartwidjaja, who had been having a good season and been one of the few redeeming points amid the depressing 1-12 season for the Butchers. Tirtawidjaja had been a great value pick as he had shown massive progress, and will most likely be RB1 for the Butchers for many seasons to come. Apart from Tirtawidjaja, there is S15 Farley Hank, who will most likely stick for a season or two even though he enters the second season of regression this offseason. So there's no real reason for Butchers to draft a top tier running back, especially they have other holes to fill in their rister, like defensive tackle, defensive end, and cornerback. So the Butchers are most likely to spend their high picks on those positions and try to take another value pick player deep into the draft like they did with Tirtawidjaja. So their most likely targets will be tier 2 running backs, whom will be available at 4th to 5th round where Chicago might seek to draft a running back or seek a BPA.
Summary: Will target tier 2 running backs if they draft one.
Baltimore Hawks
This seasom, the Hawks are operating under running back by committee approach S20 Darrell Williams and S15 Appollo Reed, backed by semi- active S21 Rick Skuff. Next season, Williams will most likely take the lion's share of the carries as Reed will enter second season of regression and Skuff's progression is a bit slow. However, the running back corps or the Hawks will be good for several seasons to come as both williams and Skuff are young players. So I can't see the Hawks drafting another running back especially when thwy have other positions of need like linebackers.
Summary: Unlikely tobdraft any running back.
Honolulu Hahalua
The Hahalua currently has 2 running backs in the Roster. S18 Ruff Ruff is inactive at 500 TPE, and S22 rookie Ke'o oke'o K?ne- Maika'i (KKM for short. I'm not gonna type that name again.) Had been active and max earning. So I'd say that there's no immediate need for a running back. However, an active replacement for Ruff can be very helpful for the team, as many offenses uses running back by committee approach. So the most likely running back targwt for the Hahalua will be one of low tier 1 running backs, ideally 2nd or 3rd player off the board. I think 2nd or 3rd best running back will be remaining in the draft board at round 3 ti round 4, where Honolulu might seek to finally draft an offensive player after addressing many positional needs in defense (like linebacker, cornerback and safety) with their first few picks of the draft.
Summary: will likely draft 2nd or 3rd running back off the board.3rd or 4th round will be ideal draft position.
Arizona Outlaws
The Outlaws only have one Running back in the roster in S21 player Baby Yoda. Yoda is young and most certainly max earning, so he'll be the RB1 for the outlaws for a long time to come. However, the Outlaws can do with a RB2 behind Yoda to shoulder his load together. But that fact doesn't automatically means that the Outlaws have a need for a running back. They currebtly have two sebddown running backs in he DSFL, and both of them might be called up by next season because of their contracts, while both are not top tier earners, with Keppler having 215 TPE and Batista having 156 TPE. So only way the Outlaws are drafting a running back is as a best player available, like a scenario of the top running back falling to lower of two seconds or one of their three third round picks. This is because the Outlaws don't have many holes to fill in their roster, having them all patched with thwir massive S22 rookie class.I don't think the Outlaws will draft a running back unless he is a top notch earner unlike their current senddowns.
Summary: will draft tier 1 running backs if they fall to them as BPA.
Philadelphia Liberty
The Liberty currently has two running backs in their NSFL roster. Sam Torenson will enter regression after this season as a S16 player, but he'll stick around for several seasons because he currently has more than 1200 TPE. And S18 player Fuzzy Dotson still git several seasons before regression. So I can see Torenson- Dotson combo going strong in the Liberty Backfield for two or three more seasons, at least. However, the Liberty needs a depth to prepare for post Torenson times as their only senddown running back J. B. Apollo had been inactive for about a month with 140 TPE. The ideal draft target for the Liberty will be tier 2 running backs who will definately be available with their 4th or 5th round pick. The reason the Liberty moght prefer tier 2 players to top tier players are because the Liberty has more needy ppsitions like defensive end, defensive tackle and cornerbacks, and the running back drafted by the Liberty will have ro be sent down to the DSFL for multiple seasons.
Summary: will target tier 2 running backs.
San Jose Sabercats
The Sabercats currently has 3 running backs in their roster. However, only 1 of thiae 3 are active as both Orien Drake and Quindarius Tyerucker had been inactive forbquite some time. Even Rando Cardrissian, the only active running back in the roster, hadn't been max earning. So the Sabercats will need an upgrade to the running back position. The Sabercats are another prime landing spot for tier 1 running backs as they don't have many needs apart from defensive ends or defensive tackles. And as they don't have a third round pick, the Sabercats' strategy will most likelt be to snag the 3rd running back off the board with their fourth round pick if they slide out of third round.
Summary: will seek ti draft the 3rd running back off the board eith their 4th rounder.
*Corrections! I didn't factor in the presense of Jamar Lackson as I wrote this article, as I somehow missed him being noted in the Sabercats senddown sheet. I don't think the Sabercats will look to draft a running back in this case, as Lackson is active and is a max earner.
Sarasota Sailfish
The Sailfish git Dax frost, who is undoubtedly active and max earning. And as he is S21, Frost will be holding on to the Sailfish RV1 spot for a long time. However, the Sailfish can do with an upgrade of the RB2 spot, as their current RB2 Paco Mctaco only got 197 TPE and had been inactive for about half an irl year for now. But as we asw with the Outlaws' case, that doesn't automatically mean that the Sailfish need a running back. It is quite the contrary, in fact. The Sailfish got Kevin Fakon, who is active and got more TPE than McTaco at 204, sent down to the DSFL. Fakon will be called up next season to replace McTaco. That will make the Sailfish running back corps one of the youngest in the NSFL, and therefore eliminate the need to draft a running back this season as anybody drafted in this situation will be sent down to the DSFL for a very long time. As that's very unfair to both the player and the team, I don't think the Sailfish will draft any running backs this season.
New Orleans Second Line
The Second Line has a strong running back by committee system, featuring S15 Forrest Gump and S18 Marcella Toriki. And while Toriki will enjoy several seasons of her prime before regression, Gump will enter his second season of regression this offseason. Gump will stick around for two or maybe three more seasons, but the Second Line will eventually need a successor to him as their only senddown running back, Tequila Sunrise, is currently inactive and only has 164 TPE. So, the most likely move for the Second Line is to draft a tier 2 or even 3 running back and develop them for several seasons before Gump's retirement. That way they can have a ready successor right as Gump retires, and not face the dissent of a top draft pick for stashing them in the DSFL too long.
Summary: will target tier 2/3 running backs later in the draft.
Colorado Yeti
Currently, the Yeti backfield features S17 Ashley Owens and S18 Michael Vincent. And both players have a season or two before regression, and certainly got the TPE level to brave the regression for another season or two after the regression. So I think there's no immediate need for a running back. On top of that, the Yeti has Richard Gilbert, who is active and got 325 TPEs to his name, down in the DSFL. As he will be called up next season to serve as RB3 and serve as long term successor of Owens or Vincent, there's really no room for a S23 running back to get in. So I can't see the Yeti drafting a running back unless it's a flier pick in late active rounds.
Summary: unlikely to draft any running backs.
Austin Copperheads
Evwn though Ryan Leaf Jr. Will retire at the end of this season, the Copperhads running back corps will still be strong. Mako Mendonce, despote entering regression this offseason, will hold on for several seasons to come because he got 1200+ TPE right now. And the Copperheads already got a successor for Leaf in the form of Kichwa Jones, who is currently sent down in the DSFL with his 342 TPE. Jones will most certainly be called up next season, and serve as RB2 and eventual successor to Mendonca. So the only case the Copperheads draft a running back is as a RB2 and wven that is after several seasons of being a senddown. I think the Copperheads will get a low tier 2 ir tier 3 player in the lower rounds, or not draft a running back at all.
Summary: will target tier 2/3 running backs or won't draft them at all.
Orange County Otters
The Otters currently has two running backs in their roster. S15 Lucolo Bigby will wnter his second season of regression this iffseason, and is unlikely to be around after S23 considering his TPE levels. However, the Otters got a stellar rookie in Tatsu Nakamura, who had been active and max earning with 371 TPE. Nakamura will be the Otters' RB1 starting next season, and will be continute to be in that positiin forba long time after that. So the Otters have two options here. They can either draft a running back who has TPE level to be ibstabt RB2 to Nakamura, or they can just roll with only Nakamura for one season and seek a RB2 in the S24 draft. I think the Otters are more likely to choose the latter option, as they got needs in defensive end and linebacker, and top tier running backs are likely to be gone when they finish to address those positions. Also, Nakamura can be used as a workhorse back without too much ofba trouble as their quarterback Franklin Armstrong is basically another running back.
Summary: unlikely to draft any running back.
Yellowknife Wraiths
The Wraiths Currebtly has S18 Matthias Hanyadi and S22 rookie Acura Skyline in their roster. Hanyadi got two seasons of prime production before he enters regression, and Skyline is just in the beginning stages in his career. And as both of then are active and max earning there is no real need for a running back especially because Skyline will develop into workhorse caliber running back by the time of Hanyadi's retirement. Any running back drafted into the Wraiths will have to wait for a long time to take the NSFL field. So I can't see the Wraiths taking any running backs in this season's draft.
Summary: unlikely to draft any running back.
Before we start
The S23 running back class has 10 members in total. Among them, 7 had updated in the update of may 16th, the latest update at the point of this article. Those active players can be categorized into several tiers like the following.
Tier 1: Nicholas Ayers (186 TPE), Joseph Petrongolo (183 TPE), Danny King (181 TPE)
Tier 2: Keyenl McZeal (135 TPE), Running back (134 TPE), Quanter Skills (129 TPE), 3' Jeffrey (124 TPE)*
Tier 3: Bob Murphy (77 TPE)
*Jeffrey did not update in may 16th update, his latest update being the update of may 2nd. However, he was seen on the forums very recently.
Those seven, plus Jeffrey whom I think will update, are the running backs who will be drafted in the meaningful rounds of this season's NSFL draft.
One noticeable thing about this running back class is the fact that there are very distinctive TPE gap between tiers. There is a 48TPE gap between King and McZeal, and a 52 TPE gap between Jeffrey and Murphy. TPE gaps of this size means that there will be a significant TPE gap remaining if the lower tier players purchased tier 6 equipment, which is worth 30 TPE. So for that reason, I can't see the tiers changing until the draft day, barring some drastic events like newfoubd TPE claims or something of that scale. Hoeever, the order within the tiers can change very much, as TPE gap within the same tier is very small. So in convlusion, I can see top 3 running backs already, but can't determine which order they will go off the board, as they're basically in the same level. Now, to team by team analysis.
Chicago Butchers The Featured running back in the Butchers offence is S22 Julio Tiartwidjaja, who had been having a good season and been one of the few redeeming points amid the depressing 1-12 season for the Butchers. Tirtawidjaja had been a great value pick as he had shown massive progress, and will most likely be RB1 for the Butchers for many seasons to come. Apart from Tirtawidjaja, there is S15 Farley Hank, who will most likely stick for a season or two even though he enters the second season of regression this offseason. So there's no real reason for Butchers to draft a top tier running back, especially they have other holes to fill in their rister, like defensive tackle, defensive end, and cornerback. So the Butchers are most likely to spend their high picks on those positions and try to take another value pick player deep into the draft like they did with Tirtawidjaja. So their most likely targets will be tier 2 running backs, whom will be available at 4th to 5th round where Chicago might seek to draft a running back or seek a BPA.
Summary: Will target tier 2 running backs if they draft one.
Baltimore Hawks This seasom, the Hawks are operating under running back by committee approach S20 Darrell Williams and S15 Appollo Reed, backed by semi- active S21 Rick Skuff. Next season, Williams will most likely take the lion's share of the carries as Reed will enter second season of regression and Skuff's progression is a bit slow. However, the running back corps or the Hawks will be good for several seasons to come as both williams and Skuff are young players. So I can't see the Hawks drafting another running back especially when thwy have other positions of need like linebackers.
Summary: Unlikely tobdraft any running back.
Honolulu Hahalua The Hahalua currently has 2 running backs in the Roster. S18 Ruff Ruff is inactive at 500 TPE, and S22 rookie Ke'o oke'o K?ne- Maika'i (KKM for short. I'm not gonna type that name again.) Had been active and max earning. So I'd say that there's no immediate need for a running back. However, an active replacement for Ruff can be very helpful for the team, as many offenses uses running back by committee approach. So the most likely running back targwt for the Hahalua will be one of low tier 1 running backs, ideally 2nd or 3rd player off the board. I think 2nd or 3rd best running back will be remaining in the draft board at round 3 ti round 4, where Honolulu might seek to finally draft an offensive player after addressing many positional needs in defense (like linebacker, cornerback and safety) with their first few picks of the draft.
Summary: will likely draft 2nd or 3rd running back off the board.3rd or 4th round will be ideal draft position.
Arizona Outlaws The Outlaws only have one Running back in the roster in S21 player Baby Yoda. Yoda is young and most certainly max earning, so he'll be the RB1 for the outlaws for a long time to come. However, the Outlaws can do with a RB2 behind Yoda to shoulder his load together. But that fact doesn't automatically means that the Outlaws have a need for a running back. They currebtly have two sebddown running backs in he DSFL, and both of them might be called up by next season because of their contracts, while both are not top tier earners, with Keppler having 215 TPE and Batista having 156 TPE. So only way the Outlaws are drafting a running back is as a best player available, like a scenario of the top running back falling to lower of two seconds or one of their three third round picks. This is because the Outlaws don't have many holes to fill in their roster, having them all patched with thwir massive S22 rookie class.I don't think the Outlaws will draft a running back unless he is a top notch earner unlike their current senddowns.
Summary: will draft tier 1 running backs if they fall to them as BPA.
Philadelphia Liberty The Liberty currently has two running backs in their NSFL roster. Sam Torenson will enter regression after this season as a S16 player, but he'll stick around for several seasons because he currently has more than 1200 TPE. And S18 player Fuzzy Dotson still git several seasons before regression. So I can see Torenson- Dotson combo going strong in the Liberty Backfield for two or three more seasons, at least. However, the Liberty needs a depth to prepare for post Torenson times as their only senddown running back J. B. Apollo had been inactive for about a month with 140 TPE. The ideal draft target for the Liberty will be tier 2 running backs who will definately be available with their 4th or 5th round pick. The reason the Liberty moght prefer tier 2 players to top tier players are because the Liberty has more needy ppsitions like defensive end, defensive tackle and cornerbacks, and the running back drafted by the Liberty will have ro be sent down to the DSFL for multiple seasons.
Summary: will target tier 2 running backs.
San Jose Sabercats The Sabercats currently has 3 running backs in their roster. However, only 1 of thiae 3 are active as both Orien Drake and Quindarius Tyerucker had been inactive forbquite some time. Even Rando Cardrissian, the only active running back in the roster, hadn't been max earning. So the Sabercats will need an upgrade to the running back position. The Sabercats are another prime landing spot for tier 1 running backs as they don't have many needs apart from defensive ends or defensive tackles. And as they don't have a third round pick, the Sabercats' strategy will most likelt be to snag the 3rd running back off the board with their fourth round pick if they slide out of third round.
Summary: will seek ti draft the 3rd running back off the board eith their 4th rounder.
*Corrections! I didn't factor in the presense of Jamar Lackson as I wrote this article, as I somehow missed him being noted in the Sabercats senddown sheet. I don't think the Sabercats will look to draft a running back in this case, as Lackson is active and is a max earner.
Sarasota Sailfish The Sailfish git Dax frost, who is undoubtedly active and max earning. And as he is S21, Frost will be holding on to the Sailfish RV1 spot for a long time. However, the Sailfish can do with an upgrade of the RB2 spot, as their current RB2 Paco Mctaco only got 197 TPE and had been inactive for about half an irl year for now. But as we asw with the Outlaws' case, that doesn't automatically mean that the Sailfish need a running back. It is quite the contrary, in fact. The Sailfish got Kevin Fakon, who is active and got more TPE than McTaco at 204, sent down to the DSFL. Fakon will be called up next season to replace McTaco. That will make the Sailfish running back corps one of the youngest in the NSFL, and therefore eliminate the need to draft a running back this season as anybody drafted in this situation will be sent down to the DSFL for a very long time. As that's very unfair to both the player and the team, I don't think the Sailfish will draft any running backs this season.
New Orleans Second Line The Second Line has a strong running back by committee system, featuring S15 Forrest Gump and S18 Marcella Toriki. And while Toriki will enjoy several seasons of her prime before regression, Gump will enter his second season of regression this offseason. Gump will stick around for two or maybe three more seasons, but the Second Line will eventually need a successor to him as their only senddown running back, Tequila Sunrise, is currently inactive and only has 164 TPE. So, the most likely move for the Second Line is to draft a tier 2 or even 3 running back and develop them for several seasons before Gump's retirement. That way they can have a ready successor right as Gump retires, and not face the dissent of a top draft pick for stashing them in the DSFL too long.
Summary: will target tier 2/3 running backs later in the draft.
Colorado Yeti Currently, the Yeti backfield features S17 Ashley Owens and S18 Michael Vincent. And both players have a season or two before regression, and certainly got the TPE level to brave the regression for another season or two after the regression. So I think there's no immediate need for a running back. On top of that, the Yeti has Richard Gilbert, who is active and got 325 TPEs to his name, down in the DSFL. As he will be called up next season to serve as RB3 and serve as long term successor of Owens or Vincent, there's really no room for a S23 running back to get in. So I can't see the Yeti drafting a running back unless it's a flier pick in late active rounds.
Summary: unlikely to draft any running backs.
Austin Copperheads Evwn though Ryan Leaf Jr. Will retire at the end of this season, the Copperhads running back corps will still be strong. Mako Mendonce, despote entering regression this offseason, will hold on for several seasons to come because he got 1200+ TPE right now. And the Copperheads already got a successor for Leaf in the form of Kichwa Jones, who is currently sent down in the DSFL with his 342 TPE. Jones will most certainly be called up next season, and serve as RB2 and eventual successor to Mendonca. So the only case the Copperheads draft a running back is as a RB2 and wven that is after several seasons of being a senddown. I think the Copperheads will get a low tier 2 ir tier 3 player in the lower rounds, or not draft a running back at all.
Summary: will target tier 2/3 running backs or won't draft them at all.
Orange County Otters The Otters currently has two running backs in their roster. S15 Lucolo Bigby will wnter his second season of regression this iffseason, and is unlikely to be around after S23 considering his TPE levels. However, the Otters got a stellar rookie in Tatsu Nakamura, who had been active and max earning with 371 TPE. Nakamura will be the Otters' RB1 starting next season, and will be continute to be in that positiin forba long time after that. So the Otters have two options here. They can either draft a running back who has TPE level to be ibstabt RB2 to Nakamura, or they can just roll with only Nakamura for one season and seek a RB2 in the S24 draft. I think the Otters are more likely to choose the latter option, as they got needs in defensive end and linebacker, and top tier running backs are likely to be gone when they finish to address those positions. Also, Nakamura can be used as a workhorse back without too much ofba trouble as their quarterback Franklin Armstrong is basically another running back.
Summary: unlikely to draft any running back.
Yellowknife Wraiths The Wraiths Currebtly has S18 Matthias Hanyadi and S22 rookie Acura Skyline in their roster. Hanyadi got two seasons of prime production before he enters regression, and Skyline is just in the beginning stages in his career. And as both of then are active and max earning there is no real need for a running back especially because Skyline will develop into workhorse caliber running back by the time of Hanyadi's retirement. Any running back drafted into the Wraiths will have to wait for a long time to take the NSFL field. So I can't see the Wraiths taking any running backs in this season's draft.
Summary: unlikely to draft any running back.
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