*S23 Elo Rankings - Week 5

[IthicaHawk]

For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:

• 1 Elo ranking NSFL teams
• 2 Home Field Advantage - An Analysis
• 3 NSFL Scorigami

For additional stat based content see here:

• The greatest team in the history of the NSFL, A video report

Previous Elo reports
Season 22 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3 - Wk4 - Wk5 - Wk6 - Wk8 - Wk9 - Wk10 - Wk12 - Wk13 - S22 Review
Season 23 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3

Our first double header day is done and some interesting movement has taken place in the rankings. Otters loss to the #8 ranked SaberCats in week combined with the Wraiths win over the Yeti was enough to cause the Otters to drop out of first place as the Wraiths slid up into their vacated position. In week 3, the Wraiths decimated the Butchers but it only gained them 8.97 points in the Elo rankings due to the absolute difference in the two teams whereas in week 4, they beat #3 ranked Yeti by 8 points and gained 32.00. This is an excellent demonstration of how the Elo scaling works when top teams play equal teams vs much lower ranked teams they are expected to beat.
For reference, it the 54-0 scoreline is swapped to a Butchers victory, the Wraiths would have lost 94.96 points (and the Butchers gained that much).

Week 3 had a lot of shuffling around at the bottom of the table with every team from 5th to 11th moving, most at least two spots. The SaberCats lost quite a chunk of their score from the 35-7 defeat they suffered at the hands of the Hahalua, it cost the 54.88 points and dropped them down two spots. On the other hand, liberty were the big gainer in week 3, beating Hawks 51-17 gave them 43.80 points and moved them up three positions in the rankings.

Additionally, while week 4 had no instances of Scorigami, week 3 had two. The Wraiths 54-0 victory over the Butchers and Liberty 51-17 over the Hawks were both scores not seen before in the NSFL.

The rankings after week 3 were as follows:

1(=) 1,693.15
2(=) 1,639.43
3(+1) 1,591.26
4(-1) 1,574.31
5(=) 1,544.12
6(+1) 1,503.00
7(+3) 1,458.59
8(-2) 1,455.38
9(+2) 1,449.94
10(-2) 1,442.90
11(-2) 1,373.57
12(=) 1,276.56

The rankings after week 4 are as follows:

1(+1) 1,671.43
2(-1) 1,661.21
3(=) 1,600.39
4(+1) 1,556.93
5(-1) 1,542.31
6(=) 1,489.70
7(+1) 1,487.32
8(-1) 1,471.89
9(=) 1,440.81
10(=) 1,430.09
11(=) 1,408.00
12(=) 1,242.13


Week 5

@
Wraiths have just taken the top spot from the Otters and will be looking to hold onto it. They face Liberty this week and, with the home field advantage, it's 82.10% likely they win. However, it's a double edged sword. Because they are facing a weaker team and have that HFA they won't stand to gain as much as the Otters who face a much stronger opponents. This could mean that even a win this week might see Wraiths slip to second place unless they score big.

@
Another tough matchup for the Butchers but at least they have their home field advantage to give them a little boost. Yeti are currently in 5th place in the tables and the defending ultimus champs so this will be a tough one for the Butchers. On the flip side, if Butchers do take a W they stand to get a nice Elo boost. Odds favour yeti 79.47%.

@
Second Line are 3rd and 60 points behind the Otters #2 position. They have a good chance of taking third and dropping Otters down to 3rd, maybe even 4th if the Yeti put up a big showing. It'll be tough though as Second Line have to travel to Orange County for this showdown of two great teams. Otters with the advantage 67.35%.

@
This matchup has the potential to shake up the bottom of the table. Only 10 points seperate these two teams and Hahalua are just 30 points behind 8th place Liberty. Hahalua put in a sold performance in week 3 and gave Second Line a run for their money in week 4 so we give them 60.73% odds of taking this week.

@
We're now into too close to call territory with this match. These two teams are fairly evenly matched, Sailfish might be 6th place to Hawks 11th but there's still only 80 points seperating those positions. That combined with Hawks having the home field advantage results in a slim margin for Sailfish with 52.40% predicted win rate.

@
If you thought the last match was too close to call well, wait till you see this one. Once we include all the factors in our model we end up with an effective Elo gap between these two teams of just 4.61. That means, all things considered, these two are almost completely evenly matched going into this and it can be anyones game. The math spits out Copperheads with the slightest of advantages, giving them a 50.66% chance of winning however this is well into the noise floor so this game is truely too close to call.


Summary
@ = 82.10%
@ = 79.47%
@ = 67.35%
@ = 60.73%
@ = 52.40%
@ = 50.66%

[Jo3fish5]

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