*Consensus S25 Season Predictions

[Swanty]

Confused who to pick for the S25 predictions? Look no further, as the wisdom of the crowds works its magic!

I took the 141 season predictions that have been made so far in order to get the consensus predictions and pick out some interesting stats.

First off, some interesting facts!

• Compared to the mock draft, this task has seen very little copying of the first post, with Bigred's original predictions having been copied only 10 times
  
• Out of 141 submissions, there have been 97 different variations of predictions!
  
• 74 of these variations are completely unique, with only 1 user picking them so far
  
• Every team in the NSFC was picked by at least 1 user to finish 1st and to finish last
  
• COL and YKW are the only teams not to be picked last by anyone
  
• BER, PHI and BAL are the only teams not to be picked by anyone to finish top of their conference
  
• No one has picked the exact consensus order below, yet!
  

Right, let's get on with the rankings!

NSFC


Average predicted position: 1.26
Predicted playoff percentage: 99%
Biggest backers: 116 of you (82%) who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: Jackets28 and 3lewsers who put them 6th


Average predicted position: 2.69
Predicted playoff percentage: 85%
Biggest backers: Crodyman, ztarwarz, Bayley, iStegosauruz, BRNXB0MBERS, platanocat who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: LatinViking and nutbarspadge who put them 7th


Average predicted position: 2.70
Predicted playoff percentage: 79%
Biggest backers: 15 of you (11%) who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: muse316 who put them 7th


Average predicted position: 3.67
Predicted playoff percentage: 34%
Biggest backers: AL_GRINGO, nutbarspadge, ryd029aird13 and muse316 who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: 15 of you (4%) who put them 5th


Average predicted position: 5.33
Predicted playoff percentage: 1%
Biggest backers: Leafs4ever who put them 2nd
Biggest doubters: 20 of you (14%) who put them 7th


Average predicted position: 5.99
Predicted playoff percentage: 0%
Biggest backers: 10 of you (7%) who put them 4th
Biggest doubters: 39 of you (28%) who put them 7th


Average predicted position: 6.35
Predicted playoff percentage: 1%
Biggest backers: Arvot who put them 2nd
Biggest doubters: 79 of you (56%) who put them 7th


ASFC


Average predicted position: 1.87
Predicted playoff percentage: 91%
Biggest backers: 74 of you (52%) who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: ryd029aird13 who put them 7th


Average predicted position: 2.55
Predicted playoff percentage: 78%
Biggest backers: 36 of you (26%) who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: infinitempg, IHateBobNutting, MN_Moosey and muse316 who put them 7th


Average predicted position: 3.31
Predicted playoff percentage: 59%
Biggest backers: Punter715, Thor, JimLahey, Muford and AdamS who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: Arvot who put them 7th


Average predicted position: 3.45
Predicted playoff percentage: 51%
Biggest backers: 21 of you (15%) who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: KanakoTheSquirrel who put them 7th


Average predicted position: 4.48
Predicted playoff percentage: 14%
Biggest backers: iStegosauruz and KanakoTheSquirrel who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: simo_393 who put them 7th


Average predicted position: 5.71
Predicted playoff percentage: 5%
Biggest backers: nutbarspadge and muse316 who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: 24 of who put them 7th


Average predicted position: 6.64
Predicted playoff percentage: 2%
Biggest backers: ryd029aird13 who put them 1st
Biggest doubters: 109 of you (77%) who put them 7th


And for the regular season champion predictions:

- 91
- 18
- 13
- 7
- 4
- 2
- 2
- 1

[Asked Madden]

@nutbarspadge with some wild predictions

[slate]

Wisdom of the crowds!

[Pat]

So I get that NYS is an expansion team, but they picked a lot of high TPE players in the expansion and have made a ton of trades and signings. I just can't understand everyone being so quick to give them last place.

[LimJahey]

Hey I'm in this!

[Opera_Phantom]

Biggest doubters: infinitempg, IHateBobNutting, MN_Moosey and muse316 who put them 7th


I know where you live.

[Faded]

hon will do the thing

[IsaStarcrossed]

So I get that NYS is an expansion team, but they picked a lot of high TPE players in the expansion and have made a ton of trades and signings. I just can't understand everyone being so quick to give them last place.

I love Woelkers and Bwest and I know long term that they'll see the Silverbacks to the promised land. That said, despite all their moves the Silverbacks are 500 TPE behind the next closest ASFC team, Honolulu. They 1200 total TPE behind the ASFC team after that who also happens to be the Ultimus winning Sabercats. They have the lowest average TPE per player in the conference, the worst offense in the conference with a rookie QB leading them, and only beat out Honolulu on defense. In the sim the two most important positions for win percentage are QB and CB. Their QB is coming in at 571 TPE and their best CB has 435 TPE. Neither are very pretty from a sim test perspective.

Then you mix in the fact that they're playing in the stronger of the two conferences? They have to play Arizona, NOLA, Austin, and OCO twice. All these teams are fielding rosters significantly better than New York. You can almost assume all 8 of those games are losses. They might get lucky and split with SJS and Honolulu. With that in mind, the optimist view of New York has them going 6-10.

All that said, the sim does silly things sometimes and you never know when a team will win a couple games where they're testing below 20%, so they may end up better than many are expecting. That said, last place is the smart place to put them.