*Analysis of the Sim Gods

[Bzerkap]

So....what you are saying is ER is clearly RIGGING THE SIM AND SHOULD BE BANNED.

I'm new so I'm sorry if this isn't the proper way to blame ER for rigging.

God damn that was perfect

[manicmav36]

This is great stuff. Keep it going!

[Sweetwater]

What does you watching Er have to do with anything? When the sim gods fuck someone, it's just the nature of the beast. But I'd hate for someone to be on the Yeti and feel like it's a hopeless waste of time when really they had a good shot at winning that game. This is here so people can see the true power of teams, not one random result.

My bad, thought this was another "the sim is rigged" post.

Carry on, I dig your stats stuff.

[ADwyer87]

This is more about the point differentials than the win rates. There's only 25 games in this sample. Just for you boys I went to 100 just now for Outlaws @ Otters:

Otters: 31.2
Outlaws: 17.1

Otters 86 Wins
Outlaws 13 Wins
1 Tie.

So 86%, pretty close.

interesting, our test sims were at 60% so idk

[ADwyer87]

@ADwyer87 Please delete this comment

NONE SHALL OPPOSE US!

[timeconsumer]

interesting, our test sims were at 60% so idk

Well, you got something about our DC or strategy wrong. I'm using the sim file from after the game so it doesn't get any more accurate than this.

[bovovovo]

I had been doing this for Wraiths games but it's really cool to see it done for all of them.

Curious question, what's your line between a "coin flip" and a clear favorite in a game?

I ask because you have the Hawks losing a game they had a 64% chance of winning as "getting fucked" when in my opinion a 64% chance of winning is not close sure thing... I'd personally put it at 70-75% I think

I know when we test to prepare, I don't feel comfortable unless we're in the 80s lol

[timeconsumer]

I had been doing this for Wraiths games but it's really cool to see it done for all of them.

Curious question, what's your line between a "coin flip" and a clear favorite in a game?

I ask because you have the Hawks losing a game they had a 64% chance of winning as "getting fucked" when in my opinion a 64% chance of winning is not close sure thing... I'd personally put it at 70-75% I think

I know when we test to prepare, I don't feel comfortable unless we're in the 80s lol

This is less about win percentages and more about point spreads. A coin flip is about a 1-3 point spread game. The Hawks got fucked because their point differential was -8 when the larger sample showed they should have been a 6.5 point favorite.

[bovovovo]

This is less about win percentages and more about point spreads. A coin flip is about a 1-3 point spread game. The Hawks got fucked because their point differential was -8 when the larger sample showed they should have been a 6.5 point favorite.

Ah I see, makes sense. Thanks :cheers: