*Win-Loss Probabilities for each team

[infinitempg]

because when i get upset that i'm too dumb to do my homework, i do other less productive shit instead - this won't be hella descriptive i'm just awake and don't want to think about classical mechanics

I went and compiled the win probabilities for each of the 4 remaining weeks for each team, and smashed it all together in python to get the win-loss probabilities for each team:

ASFC:


Clearly the sim gods do not favor San Jose, giving them a whopping 60% chance of finishing out 1-13 and securing the first overall pick - never mind giving them just about a 0% chance of winning even 3 of their last 4 games to get to 4-10. This conference has a fairly even spread though, with New Orleans the clear front-runner but Orange County not far behind, and Arizona being too mediocre to suck or make the playoffs. Interestingly, NOLA and OCO have just about the same probability of finishing with 10 wins.

Most probable finishes:
Team - W/L - 4 Game Record
11-3 (3-1)
9-5 (2-2)
6-8 (2-2)
1-13 (0-4)


NSFC:


One of the most confusing things to me this season is just how poorly Yellowknife have played this season. The Wraiths seem to play well in sim testing (I got around a 70% win rate for them over Colorado in W13) but yet they're currently sitting in last place. Philadelphia have clearly taken a large step forward from their dreaded 0-14 season, and are slightly favored to have a higher record than Yellowknife. Colorado is fairly mediocre and has probably gotten lucky in some games this year, meaning Baltimore fans can safely refrain from booking plane tickets for the NSFC Championship Game.

Most probable finishes:
Team - W/L - 4 Game Record
10-4 (3-1)
8-6 (2-2)
6-8 (2-2)
5-9 (2-2)

We could probably expand this into a tier system as well:
Tier 1 -
Tier 2 -
Tier 3 -
Tier 4 -
Tier 5 -


I'm planning on turning this into a similar thing like TC's Sim God stuff from last season as a season end review, we will see if I actually have time for that