01-28-2020, 01:21 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2020, 10:54 AM by Fordhammer.)
Each week, teams try to win games against each other. Obviously, the players, GMs, other team staff, and fans all feel that winning the game is the reason they’re playing. They’re all dead wrong. Far more important and interesting than the games themselves are the data the games produce! One such nugget of information is a team’s expected wins. After all, we all know that being atop some random guy’s projections of season win totals is far more important than actually winning something! Who wouldn’t want to realize that you were supposed to win more games than OCO and host them in the playoffs when instead you lost because they got home field advantage in an early round? That’s not important. The only thing that matters is your rank on my list.
Expected wins is derived form a fancy math formula that I copied exactly from Wikipedia that consists of three variables. Three! IT considers points for, points against, and games in the season. This data is painstakingly gathered and analyzed in said spreadsheet. You can do lots of fun things in spreadsheets, like have it automate things and give you cool charts and tables to compare how the standings changed throughout the season.
And so, with four weeks now in the books, I am graciously providing all you football nerds with tables showing each team’s changes week-to-week.
HERE IS THE TABLE YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING AT WHILE YOU READ THE REST OF THIS!!!
Unsurprisingly, OCO has remained near the top each week, except for a minor setback in week three when their expected wins plummeted to and they fell to sixth. Their most recent win brings them back up into second, though, and I expect they’ll remain near the top.
Austin has secured and held the top spot a couple weeks now and is second most in points for while boasting the best defense in the league so far in terms of points allowed. Expected to win ten games, they’re looking dominant so far.
Arizona has been another strong season so far. Their expected wins have remained solid around 8-9. They’re sitting comfortably in third. The offense is middle of the pack, but their defense is holding strong with only 74 points allowed, behind only OCO and Austin.
Baltimore is a surprise fourth place, up from ninth just a week before. Their offense is high flying, but up till now their defense has struggled. After this most recent performance, their expected win count jumped a full three wins.
Yellowknife rose into fifth, another team that made a significant rise in ranks following a difficult start. Their expected win value only jumped slightly, though, and they have a -2 point differential to this point in the season.
Colorado follows Yellowknife in sixth and have been all over the place in the standings. Starting seventh, rising all the way to third in week two, and now sliding all the way down into ninth. They’re not last in offense or defense, but they’re certainly not performing well in either and I wouldn’t get my hopes up too high for a turnaround. I also wouldn’t expect them to stay in ninth, though. Their expected wins dropped by nearly 3 from last week.
New Orleans has fallen down to seventh. They’re another team that has had a bit of a wild ride, though not nearly to the extent of Colorado. Their expected wins fell by more than two after their most recent performance. They’re slightly in the red, but their defense has been competitive. If the offense can get a boost, they could be competitive this season.
Philly, my team, has dropped down into the eight slot. They started middle of the pack and it’s been all downhill from there. The defense is middle of the pack, but the offense sits second to last. Looks like NOLA isn’t the only team looking for some extra scoring. Or maybe I’ll just take my skills to the offensive side of the ball and see if that makes a difference.
Ninth is occupied by Chicago, another team that showed a flash of brilliance rising to third in week two before falling down to their current roost in ninth. They have the second worst point differential so far in the season. The defense is second worst in the league and the offense isn’t too impressive either.
The honorable dead last slot is, and has been all season, occupied by San Jose. That said, their expected win total has doubled the previous high point of the season, an impressive 1 win in week 2. Unfortunately, it didn’t change their ranking and they’re still in last. Their point differential is dead last, thanks to the worst defense and the worst offense in the league. We can point fingers all we want, but the facts are the offense and defense are both last in the league and don’t show many signs of life. At least they’re consistent?
I hope everyone’s predictions are still looking okay. Mine are definitely not looking great. But remember, what's really important is making sure you get it right according to predicted wins.
Expected wins is derived form a fancy math formula that I copied exactly from Wikipedia that consists of three variables. Three! IT considers points for, points against, and games in the season. This data is painstakingly gathered and analyzed in said spreadsheet. You can do lots of fun things in spreadsheets, like have it automate things and give you cool charts and tables to compare how the standings changed throughout the season.
And so, with four weeks now in the books, I am graciously providing all you football nerds with tables showing each team’s changes week-to-week.
HERE IS THE TABLE YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING AT WHILE YOU READ THE REST OF THIS!!!
Unsurprisingly, OCO has remained near the top each week, except for a minor setback in week three when their expected wins plummeted to and they fell to sixth. Their most recent win brings them back up into second, though, and I expect they’ll remain near the top.
Austin has secured and held the top spot a couple weeks now and is second most in points for while boasting the best defense in the league so far in terms of points allowed. Expected to win ten games, they’re looking dominant so far.
Arizona has been another strong season so far. Their expected wins have remained solid around 8-9. They’re sitting comfortably in third. The offense is middle of the pack, but their defense is holding strong with only 74 points allowed, behind only OCO and Austin.
Baltimore is a surprise fourth place, up from ninth just a week before. Their offense is high flying, but up till now their defense has struggled. After this most recent performance, their expected win count jumped a full three wins.
Yellowknife rose into fifth, another team that made a significant rise in ranks following a difficult start. Their expected win value only jumped slightly, though, and they have a -2 point differential to this point in the season.
Colorado follows Yellowknife in sixth and have been all over the place in the standings. Starting seventh, rising all the way to third in week two, and now sliding all the way down into ninth. They’re not last in offense or defense, but they’re certainly not performing well in either and I wouldn’t get my hopes up too high for a turnaround. I also wouldn’t expect them to stay in ninth, though. Their expected wins dropped by nearly 3 from last week.
New Orleans has fallen down to seventh. They’re another team that has had a bit of a wild ride, though not nearly to the extent of Colorado. Their expected wins fell by more than two after their most recent performance. They’re slightly in the red, but their defense has been competitive. If the offense can get a boost, they could be competitive this season.
Philly, my team, has dropped down into the eight slot. They started middle of the pack and it’s been all downhill from there. The defense is middle of the pack, but the offense sits second to last. Looks like NOLA isn’t the only team looking for some extra scoring. Or maybe I’ll just take my skills to the offensive side of the ball and see if that makes a difference.
Ninth is occupied by Chicago, another team that showed a flash of brilliance rising to third in week two before falling down to their current roost in ninth. They have the second worst point differential so far in the season. The defense is second worst in the league and the offense isn’t too impressive either.
The honorable dead last slot is, and has been all season, occupied by San Jose. That said, their expected win total has doubled the previous high point of the season, an impressive 1 win in week 2. Unfortunately, it didn’t change their ranking and they’re still in last. Their point differential is dead last, thanks to the worst defense and the worst offense in the league. We can point fingers all we want, but the facts are the offense and defense are both last in the league and don’t show many signs of life. At least they’re consistent?
I hope everyone’s predictions are still looking okay. Mine are definitely not looking great. But remember, what's really important is making sure you get it right according to predicted wins.
![[Image: IMG_4308.jpg]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/773268613532221452/929252111747801139/IMG_4308.jpg)
