*A few graphs about nothing, episode 2

[Duilio05]

This is the S21 edition of "A few graphs about nothing" where I post a number of graphs comparing contract values to the associated player's tpe. The first edition is here if you really want to go look at it. However, I assure you all the data from there will be displayed in the graphs below because it would be silly not to compare that data.

Really what kind of data nerd wouldn't drop the data from last edition to compare it with his new data for the new edition?

So blah blah blah some stuff I said last time, but because i literally just told you you didn't have to look at the last edition because

[table border=\\\'0\\\' align=\\\'center\\\' width=\\\'95%\\\' cellpadding=\\\'3\\\' cellspacing=\\\'1\\\' id=\\\'QUOTE-WRAP\\\'][tr][td]QUOTE [/td][/tr][tr][td id=\\\'QUOTE\\\'][!--QuoteEBegin--]all the data from there will be [here]

Yeah i just qoted myself. deal with it. I will share here key info that I had said last time.

So basics

I have compiled data from the TPE Tracker and the league's Team Budgets. After using some cool and nifty excel formulas (like this one =AVERAGE(ArrayFormula(if(K2 = $C30:$C, if($D30:$D > 49, if($D30:$D < 200, $J30:$J,""),""),""))) ) I made these nice graphs.

In my opinion I should get bonus pay for having to build those formulas, but I'm not a grader. I also hope I still get paid for every word that I quote since those are my words. I'm just quoting them.

All data is NSFL related only. No DSFL players or contracts, including send downs, were included. This data is for S20 only. does not include any future or past contracts. All TPE [and contract] values are from this most recent [update]. Does not include current free agents.

Also, I abbreviate the word for every position so if you see a lone capitalized s, like this: S. It probably stands for Safety(ies), and not because I forgot to type two 'e's after it.

Here's where things have changed. First is that the data displayed below is S20 AND S21. Next, last time I had all the graphs have a y-axis of $0 to $12M. $12M!!!!! Yes, $12M because we had players who signed contracts of $8M and $10M last season. To help maintain the context of just how much bigger those contracts were to everyone else I had all the graphs use the same y-axis. However, now that I have data from two different seasons to compare, that is no longer the case. The first three graphs are comparing the average contract values for each position, these graphs do not even get close to reaching $12M. Since we are comparing the data of two seasons, keeping the y-axis at $12M did not makes sense because it makes it so darn hard to distinguish different lines from each other and make comparisons at that scale. As such I decreased it to $7M. So keep that in mind when you go from the position averages graphs to the position specific graphs, the y-axis will change from $7M up to $12M.

With those things in mind lets jump into the first graph.




Let us dive in deeper, now that we have a visual. I already addressed the y-axis. lets talk about the data and the x-axis. What we are seeing is the data for S20 displayed on the left and the data for S21 displayed on the right, on the same graph. The x-axis is split into, both sides representing the same values. These values are the tpe tiers for $$ minimums on contracts. The $$ value at each tpe tier is graphed as well, labeled Minimum.

If you don't know what the contract minimum is this is for you:
Those players in the NSFL below 200 TPE, their contract minimum is $500,000. For players at TPE values of 200-399 their contract minimum is $1M. The minimum increases to $2M at 400 tpe, $3M at 600 tpe, $4M at 800 tpe, and finally $5M at 1,000 tpe.

Now for everyone again:
The other thing about the minimum on the graph, you'll notice that its a straight line which is not consistent to how contract minimums actually work in our league. should be more like a bar graph thing, but that wouldn't look aesthetically pleasing in my opinion.

The colors for each position on a graph stay the same with in the graph, helping to make it easy to compare the two seasons by position. From this overview, a few quick take aways is that from S20 to S21 all the positions reconverged back to the minimum at almost every tpe tier. What I'm talking about are the three large spikes for QB, S, and WR in S20 came back down; and OL, RB, and TE had polar changes, as well as WR where the contract values for those at the highest tpe tier at those positions rose back up to the minimum. As such, of all the positions and tpe tiers only 3 groups, 200-399tpe WRs, 400-599 Ss, and 400-599 DTs; greatly deviated from the minimum in S21. Compared to 7 groups deviating from the minimum in S20. What's not shown is the number of players in each of those groups, so it won't be until the position specific graphs will we see what caused those changes. Remember that these are the averages of all contracts for those positions at those tpe tiers.

In addition no group has a contract average higher than $5M this season.

Finally before moving on players can be under the contract minimum. They sign a multi season deal at the minimum for their current tpe, continue to earn tpe so that come year 2 or 3 of their multi season deal, they are now effectively on a contract below minimum for their tpe tier.

To make some better comparison and easier viewing i split the data into two more graphs, one for the offense positions and one for the defense positions.



For the offense graph a few more things can be noticed. The first is the single blue dot in the S21 data at 400-599 tpe. The dot occurs because there are no QBs in the 600-799 tier to continue to data line. The rest of the QBs are all at 800 tpe or above, which their data line is almost completely covered by the RB line at those tpe teirs.

The second thing I want to point out is that the OL data line only exists from 400 to 799. The graph doesn't indicate what happened to the OLmen that were in the <200 to 399 range. Perhaps they are all now between 400 and 800 tpe, the graph just doesn't indicate where they went. When we get to the OL position specific graph we will see what happened.

The third thing is what i had already mentioned, all the position averages converging back towards the minimum in S21, and of the offense positions only WRs at 400-599 range have most severe deviation from the trend line of the rest of their position.

As you get ready to look at the defense graph, note for S21 contract averages how close to the minimum graph line even the lowest averages are, and compare that to the lowest averages of the S21 contracts for the defense positions.



A visible difference, specifically for medium tier CBs and lower tier Ss.

The group of 800-999 tpe safeties no longer have the highest average in the league, and actually dropped below LBs at the same tpe level.

Finally something that becomes more obvious now we're just looking at defense is that in S20 there were gaps in the data lines for DE(stops at 400tpe) and LB(a dot at >1000). Comparing those positions to their S21 data we see the for linebackers the data line is solid again with zero gaps. DE still stops early at the 400 tier, what is hidden behind other dots in both season's data is that there is a DE dot at the >1000 tier at $5M. That is a huge gap in tpe distribution for a position. We will get a better look at why that is for DE and LB with the position specific graphs. Which I think we are ready to move on to.


Position Specific graphs.
Reminder that the y-axis for these graphs no longer stops at $7M, it goes from $0 to $12M. Why? Because with these graphs we can see the data for each specific player of that position, and in S20 we had players get contracts of $8M and $10M, so the y-axis going to $12M allows us to see those values.

Again the three graphs before were averages all the contracts for a postion together. Now they are no longer averaged.



Each blue or light blue dot repreents the tpe and contract $$ for a specific player. In this graph they are all QBs. The larger blue dots are the S21 values. the smaller lighter blue dots are S20 values.

Honestly not much has changed. A few players have gained tpe, a few regressed, most all but one contract stayed the same value.

Do note the change in how the minimum is represented, no longer a nice line, just dots at 50, 200, 400, 600, 800 and 1000 tpe to help track that; because we've changed from line graphs to scatter plots, and google sheets doesn't allow you to mix the two.



The two dots in the very right bottom area, are actually two different players. The S20 dot represented Forrest Gump. The S21 dot represents Mako Mendonca. Gump was extended on a $5M contract. Mako is still on a $2.5M contract that he probably signed two seasons ago.

Just like last season Sam Torenson is the highest paid RB.

@run_CMC just posted a media about the fall of Dax Frost. The market actually does not support why Frost fell so far in the draft. There are 3 fewer RBs getting paid to play in the NSFL this season compared to last season, for a total of 19 RBs currently in the NSFL. With Phily hoarding three of those 19 RBs, there are two teams playing with only 1 RB on the roster - hello Arizona and Austin.



The WR market has also shrunk with 2 less WRs playing in the league, which includes the 62 tpe WR playing for Arizona. Despite the decrease of skilled offense players in the league, as we saw above the averages for both skill positions converted back to the minimum this season instead of increasing. Potentially due to GM's acknowledgment of the large crop of young rookie talent. Players probably hope that expansion will help boost contracts up come next season or the season after.

Last season 3 WRs made over $7M, this season only one of those WRs still makes over $5M: Saba.

In S21 the two WRs join Saba($8M) as the top earners are Sean O'Leary($7.25M) and Nacho Varga($6M) who is also the leagues leading WR by TPE.



TE count remained the same, but there is no longer any TE over 1000 TPE. The opportunity for new young TEs to rise to stardom is there.



And here we see another position with a decrease in number of players. It is pretty empty. Really hope all our S21 and S22 Olinemen stay active, and stay as Olinemen. Where's the fair rub in paying these players below the minimum?



We've made it to the defense side of the ball. And look at that tpe gap!! We're talking a 700 date=]And I think that's a wrap.
Hopefully i can do this every season start and keep track of positional trends. Sorry if my analysis was not as in depth as some of you nerds would like... ...Maybe @[infinite] will do something with this. He seems to like data crunching stuff.[/quote]

[Opera_Phantom]

After reading today's topics, i feel like i should get a freaking diploma.


Great work as usual Duilio

[37thchamber]

What is most striking, to me, if I'm reading these graphs right... is how many players are being paid under the minimum.

*sips tea*

[nunccoepi]

I freakin love this stuff so much