I enjoy looking at expected wins often, and something I have always thought about doing were power rankings. Power rankings, though, are a little more difficult to compute. They require more information than simply point differential. So when you can’t come up with a scientific way to evaluate it, community surveys will work.
After the first NSFL games, I sent out a survey and got 13 responses, ranking each of the NSFL teams following their first performance. I weighted responses so that first place votes received 9 points and last place votes received 0 points. It’s nothing too scientific, but it does the job. Without further ado, your NSFL week one power rankings.
San Jose received only nine points, coming in last. The highest vote they received was for sixth place and they received more last place votes than any other team. The last place finish is also reflected in the expected win model, which predicts San Jose will win only 1 game this season. Their point total in a weighted survey was lower than their rank.
Arizona, though only being one place higher on the list, amassed twenty more points than San Jose and comes in second to last in the first power rankings of the season. One respondent had Arizona all the way up in third, though seven of the thirteen had 8th or lower. In the predicted win totals, Arizona beats out three other teams. The community disagrees.
Yellowknife picked up 33 points, barely edging out Arizona for eight in the inaugural rankings. Two responses put them in fourth, but they had comparable numbers to Arizona in the 8-10 department. Yellowknife, after gameweek one, owned the second lowest expected wins total.
With 47 points, Colorado comes in seventh. My future home state was not ranked higher than fifth, but with eight respondents putting them at either fifth or sixth, they overcame some other low votes and climbed into seventh. Colorado, after week one, was expected to miss the playoffs and win only five games. Once again, the community raters agree with the expected wins projections.
The defending champions come in at sixth, with a narrow lead over Colorado in the voting. They received one third place votes and no last place votes, but at least one in every place in between. Austin had a rough first game and suffered both in the minds of the public and in projections. Based solely on their week one performance, the projected wins have them missing the playoffs and winning only five games.
The first team in the top half of the league, at least in the eyes of the thirteen voters, is Chicago. Chicago picked up one first place vote, but most have them in the middle of the pack. They received votes in every slot between second and ninth, so they have a lot of convincing to do the rest of the season. They are expected to win 8 games this season, a respectable total.
Philly rings in at fourth, receiving only one vote below fifth place. The Liberty look to have a bounce back season and got off to a good start in their season opener. After week one, the Liberty were projected to place second in the NSFC with 9 wins. In any case, the NSFC looks interesting so far.
Third is occupied by the Orange County Otters. Orange County received one first place vote and one last place vote. Someone also had them in seventh. This is probably the clearest example of why community surveys aren’t entirely accurate, since Orange County certainly was not the worst team in week one. In fact, they had the highest expected win total following their first contest with a projected total of 12 wins.
Second is New Orleans. New Orleans received one ninth place vote, once sixth place vote, and 11 top three votes. Four voters put them at number one. They were dominant in the first week, throwing up 34 points. They are tied with Philly for third in expected wins with 9 (really 8.5, but I’m rounding). They earned the recognition and I hope they don’t disappoint in what looks to be a tight ASFC race.
Baltimore took first place as the only team to pick up over 100 points on the survey. Baltimore received only one vote outside of the top three and eleven of thirteen had them in the top two. They are projected, after week one, to win the NSFC with 10 wins.
Below is the ranking and the point totals they received. Thank you to the thirteen people who took the time to respond.
1. Baltimore – 104
2. New Orleans – 95
3. Orange County – 81
4. Philadelphia – 74
5. Chicago – 63
6. Austin – 50
7. Colorado – 47
8. Yellowknife – 33
9. Arizona – 29
10. San Jose - 9
After the first NSFL games, I sent out a survey and got 13 responses, ranking each of the NSFL teams following their first performance. I weighted responses so that first place votes received 9 points and last place votes received 0 points. It’s nothing too scientific, but it does the job. Without further ado, your NSFL week one power rankings.
San Jose received only nine points, coming in last. The highest vote they received was for sixth place and they received more last place votes than any other team. The last place finish is also reflected in the expected win model, which predicts San Jose will win only 1 game this season. Their point total in a weighted survey was lower than their rank.
Arizona, though only being one place higher on the list, amassed twenty more points than San Jose and comes in second to last in the first power rankings of the season. One respondent had Arizona all the way up in third, though seven of the thirteen had 8th or lower. In the predicted win totals, Arizona beats out three other teams. The community disagrees.
Yellowknife picked up 33 points, barely edging out Arizona for eight in the inaugural rankings. Two responses put them in fourth, but they had comparable numbers to Arizona in the 8-10 department. Yellowknife, after gameweek one, owned the second lowest expected wins total.
With 47 points, Colorado comes in seventh. My future home state was not ranked higher than fifth, but with eight respondents putting them at either fifth or sixth, they overcame some other low votes and climbed into seventh. Colorado, after week one, was expected to miss the playoffs and win only five games. Once again, the community raters agree with the expected wins projections.
The defending champions come in at sixth, with a narrow lead over Colorado in the voting. They received one third place votes and no last place votes, but at least one in every place in between. Austin had a rough first game and suffered both in the minds of the public and in projections. Based solely on their week one performance, the projected wins have them missing the playoffs and winning only five games.
The first team in the top half of the league, at least in the eyes of the thirteen voters, is Chicago. Chicago picked up one first place vote, but most have them in the middle of the pack. They received votes in every slot between second and ninth, so they have a lot of convincing to do the rest of the season. They are expected to win 8 games this season, a respectable total.
Philly rings in at fourth, receiving only one vote below fifth place. The Liberty look to have a bounce back season and got off to a good start in their season opener. After week one, the Liberty were projected to place second in the NSFC with 9 wins. In any case, the NSFC looks interesting so far.
Third is occupied by the Orange County Otters. Orange County received one first place vote and one last place vote. Someone also had them in seventh. This is probably the clearest example of why community surveys aren’t entirely accurate, since Orange County certainly was not the worst team in week one. In fact, they had the highest expected win total following their first contest with a projected total of 12 wins.
Second is New Orleans. New Orleans received one ninth place vote, once sixth place vote, and 11 top three votes. Four voters put them at number one. They were dominant in the first week, throwing up 34 points. They are tied with Philly for third in expected wins with 9 (really 8.5, but I’m rounding). They earned the recognition and I hope they don’t disappoint in what looks to be a tight ASFC race.
Baltimore took first place as the only team to pick up over 100 points on the survey. Baltimore received only one vote outside of the top three and eleven of thirteen had them in the top two. They are projected, after week one, to win the NSFC with 10 wins.
Below is the ranking and the point totals they received. Thank you to the thirteen people who took the time to respond.
1. Baltimore – 104
2. New Orleans – 95
3. Orange County – 81
4. Philadelphia – 74
5. Chicago – 63
6. Austin – 50
7. Colorado – 47
8. Yellowknife – 33
9. Arizona – 29
10. San Jose - 9
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