03-16-2020, 04:47 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020, 07:47 AM by yonggarius.)
This year's DSFL rookie class was the largest one in NSFL history by a large margin with 271 people being drafted in the DSFL draft of the year. This is certainly a good thing for NSFL, as for sim league community, the more is definatly the merrier. However, this big rookie class might cause some problem next season as all 271 of them are required to br drafted by one of the NSFL franchises, who might not have enough room to accomplish all those rookies. So in this article, I would like to analyze what happened to season 22 rookie class so far and whether or not the head office should make some investment for future and expand the NSFL.
A. How's the rookie class doing?
Similar to other classes, this year's rookie class is divided in several subgroups, such as max earners, semi-max earners, casual earners and inactives, who make up the most. For this moment(right after the second update of regular season) I will set the benchmark for 'max earner' at 150 total TPE, and the benchmark for 'semi-max earner' at 100 total TPE. Also, I will define 'inactive' person as a person who did not participate in both the update in march 7th, or the one in march 14th.
With those benchmarks, this year's rookie class(271 draftees plus 6 people who were claimed via waivers after the draft) can be divided like this.
Max earner(150+TPE): 33 people
Semi-max earner(100~149 TPE): 46 people
Casual earner(~100TPE, active): 32 people
Inactives(~100TPE, inactive): 166 people
Season 22 class has many inactives at 166, as can be expected from such a large class. At 166 of 277 people inactive, the inactive rate for the class is about 60%.
Among the remaining 40% of the class who are active, 33 people had been categorized as max earners, with defensive tackle Phat Boi at top with whooping 199 TPE. And 46 earned between 100 and 149 TPE while 32 earned less than 100 total TPE. Alomst all of people in the 'max earner' group, as well as majority of 'semi-max earner group' are regularly seen on either discord or forum. Those 79 100+ TPE players have high probability of sticking in the league for the forseeable future. And many people among the 'casual earner' group at least participates in key events, and some are active in league or team discord. Judging from this, I think that the majority of those 111 active people -maybe up to 100 people- are here to stay, at least for now.
B. Can the current NSFL accommodate all of them?
For the current season(season 21), most NSFL team's roster is consistrd of 19 or 20 players, except the case of the Wraiths(18 players) and Otters(21 players), mainly because of cap space reasons. Among those roster spots, season 21 rookies take up about 2.2 spot in average, with Sabercats having the largest number of rookies with 4 and Second Line having the fewest with no rookies on their roster. If we apply these numbers to the season 22 class, then only about top 20~25 people of the class are expected to make the NSFL roster at first try, with others having to wait for that opportunity for some years.
This can cause some problems. To see the reason why, we must first analyze season 21's rookie class, and how they divide. For this, the benchmark for 'max earner' group and 'semi-max earner' is set at 200 and 150 TPE, respectively. The top section of season 21 rookie class look like this.
Max earner(200+ TPE): 13 people
Semi-max earner(150-199TPE): 21 people
+100~149TPE: 20 people
From this, we can learn that top group for this class was a lot smaller than that of season 22 draft class. Actually, 22 rookie spots across the league was theoretically large enough to accommodate all of the 'max earner' group and almost half of 'semi-max earner' group. ( in reality, some 200+ TPE players were sent down back to DSFL because of team needs.) However, for the season 22 group, those 22 spots mean that only the top 2/3 of the max earner group will make it to the NSFL roster in their first season of NSFL eligibility, and the others- the bottom third of max earner group plus 46 semi max earners and majority of the casual earners- will be sent down back to the DSFL, and stay there until an opportunity pops up. However, if future rookie classes are close to the size of the season 22 class, those senddowns might spend a couple of years in the DSFL if they doesn't continue to be max earners as max earners of future classes might end up going to the NSFL faster then them if they slack. This can be a big source of complaint from those senddown players and might end up even diminishing the playing time for future fookies as DSFL gets filled up with senddowns over the course of seasons with big rookie classes, eventually diminishing the amount of new recruits. The NSFL will need to devise a plan to prevent such a situation.
C. How can we solve the problem?
In order the solve the problem of rookie accomodations, the production of more roster spots will be needed. This can be achieved through two main methods, which is increase of cap space and expansion of the league.
First off, the increase of cap space is the easier method of two, as it only needs the approval of rules committee and the head office to be enacted. Increasing the cap space for about 10 million dollars will make theoratically make room enough to accommodate about 5 more players -who will most likely be rookies or 2nd year players- making about 50 new roster spots across the league at status quo. However, this methods has its flaws as that increased cap money can be used elsewhere than making new roster spots -like buying better offensive line bots- and the fact that rookies who fill those increased spot only face limited opportunity, as those spots will be designated to backup roles like 3rd wide receiver/running back or backup quarterback.
The method of league expansion, however, can solve most of those flaws. Expansion automatically means more roster spots for rookies as there will be more teams, and those spots have higher probability of being a starting spot or a spot with significant playing time beacuse of needs of both expansion and existing teams(existing teams will need to compensate lost talent if an expansion draft happens). However, expansion can be hard and risky as the head office will need to put in a lot of effort in it -such as recruiting people to run those teams, adjusting the sim for expansion, etc- and has high risk, because it will cause more efforts or in worst case, folding or conversion to bot teams of some franchises if the rookie class numbers diminish in the future.
Despite its risk, expansion is still the better option in this situation, as there are just too much rookies that need to be accommodated. Had the season 22 class was only about 100~150 people strong, only the increase of cap space would have surmised. However, as this class is almost twice that number, and because further recruitment in sites like reddit are planned, expansion will be the solution.
D. How much expansion do we need?
Some on the NSFL forum say that this is the time for a 4 team expansion, while others say that a 2 team expansion will do. The former citing the sheer number of this rookie class and possibility of future classes as big as this one, and the latter citing the risk of biting more than the league can chew.
Among those two proposed options, 2 team expansion is the more reasonable option in my opinion. First, 4 team expansion is way too risky, as it will always need a big rookie class. 4 new teams will provide about 80 roster spots under current cap. That is quite a lot, even in this draft class' standards, as it covers all of the max earners and semi- max earners. And the annual roster need for rookies are going to increase a lot. This setup is almost bound to fail if small rookie class- say like under 80 people- come around for several seasons in a row. And the aftermath of those failure might be detrimental for both individual players and the league in general.
Also, 2 team expansion provide more than enough spots, if appropriate moves are made. Expansion of 2 teams will provide 40 spots under status quo. While that number can be small against bigger classes, that can be
easily rectified by increasing the cap space a little. For instance, a $5 million increase in cap space, designated for rookie or secong year player signings, there will be room for about 2 more players per team, which is 24 spots in a 12 team setting. This will be more than enough spots and far more safe as cap space can be easily adjusted and new teams can be formed if the demand continues to increase.
E. Side notes
- In my opinion, max earners and about 1/3~1/2 of semi max earners making NSFL roster in their first year of eligibility will be ideal situation. For S22 class, that number is about 48~56. So I think 2 expansion teams plus about $5 mil increase of cap will be enough to accommodate them plus second year senddowns.
-From what I've heard, Vancouver had expressed interest in housing a NSFL expansion team, and that expansion team is being structured nicely with both GMs in position. I wish them luck in their endeavors.
(1612)
A. How's the rookie class doing?
Similar to other classes, this year's rookie class is divided in several subgroups, such as max earners, semi-max earners, casual earners and inactives, who make up the most. For this moment(right after the second update of regular season) I will set the benchmark for 'max earner' at 150 total TPE, and the benchmark for 'semi-max earner' at 100 total TPE. Also, I will define 'inactive' person as a person who did not participate in both the update in march 7th, or the one in march 14th.
With those benchmarks, this year's rookie class(271 draftees plus 6 people who were claimed via waivers after the draft) can be divided like this.
Max earner(150+TPE): 33 people
Semi-max earner(100~149 TPE): 46 people
Casual earner(~100TPE, active): 32 people
Inactives(~100TPE, inactive): 166 people
Season 22 class has many inactives at 166, as can be expected from such a large class. At 166 of 277 people inactive, the inactive rate for the class is about 60%.
Among the remaining 40% of the class who are active, 33 people had been categorized as max earners, with defensive tackle Phat Boi at top with whooping 199 TPE. And 46 earned between 100 and 149 TPE while 32 earned less than 100 total TPE. Alomst all of people in the 'max earner' group, as well as majority of 'semi-max earner group' are regularly seen on either discord or forum. Those 79 100+ TPE players have high probability of sticking in the league for the forseeable future. And many people among the 'casual earner' group at least participates in key events, and some are active in league or team discord. Judging from this, I think that the majority of those 111 active people -maybe up to 100 people- are here to stay, at least for now.
B. Can the current NSFL accommodate all of them?
For the current season(season 21), most NSFL team's roster is consistrd of 19 or 20 players, except the case of the Wraiths(18 players) and Otters(21 players), mainly because of cap space reasons. Among those roster spots, season 21 rookies take up about 2.2 spot in average, with Sabercats having the largest number of rookies with 4 and Second Line having the fewest with no rookies on their roster. If we apply these numbers to the season 22 class, then only about top 20~25 people of the class are expected to make the NSFL roster at first try, with others having to wait for that opportunity for some years.
This can cause some problems. To see the reason why, we must first analyze season 21's rookie class, and how they divide. For this, the benchmark for 'max earner' group and 'semi-max earner' is set at 200 and 150 TPE, respectively. The top section of season 21 rookie class look like this.
Max earner(200+ TPE): 13 people
Semi-max earner(150-199TPE): 21 people
+100~149TPE: 20 people
From this, we can learn that top group for this class was a lot smaller than that of season 22 draft class. Actually, 22 rookie spots across the league was theoretically large enough to accommodate all of the 'max earner' group and almost half of 'semi-max earner' group. ( in reality, some 200+ TPE players were sent down back to DSFL because of team needs.) However, for the season 22 group, those 22 spots mean that only the top 2/3 of the max earner group will make it to the NSFL roster in their first season of NSFL eligibility, and the others- the bottom third of max earner group plus 46 semi max earners and majority of the casual earners- will be sent down back to the DSFL, and stay there until an opportunity pops up. However, if future rookie classes are close to the size of the season 22 class, those senddowns might spend a couple of years in the DSFL if they doesn't continue to be max earners as max earners of future classes might end up going to the NSFL faster then them if they slack. This can be a big source of complaint from those senddown players and might end up even diminishing the playing time for future fookies as DSFL gets filled up with senddowns over the course of seasons with big rookie classes, eventually diminishing the amount of new recruits. The NSFL will need to devise a plan to prevent such a situation.
C. How can we solve the problem?
In order the solve the problem of rookie accomodations, the production of more roster spots will be needed. This can be achieved through two main methods, which is increase of cap space and expansion of the league.
First off, the increase of cap space is the easier method of two, as it only needs the approval of rules committee and the head office to be enacted. Increasing the cap space for about 10 million dollars will make theoratically make room enough to accommodate about 5 more players -who will most likely be rookies or 2nd year players- making about 50 new roster spots across the league at status quo. However, this methods has its flaws as that increased cap money can be used elsewhere than making new roster spots -like buying better offensive line bots- and the fact that rookies who fill those increased spot only face limited opportunity, as those spots will be designated to backup roles like 3rd wide receiver/running back or backup quarterback.
The method of league expansion, however, can solve most of those flaws. Expansion automatically means more roster spots for rookies as there will be more teams, and those spots have higher probability of being a starting spot or a spot with significant playing time beacuse of needs of both expansion and existing teams(existing teams will need to compensate lost talent if an expansion draft happens). However, expansion can be hard and risky as the head office will need to put in a lot of effort in it -such as recruiting people to run those teams, adjusting the sim for expansion, etc- and has high risk, because it will cause more efforts or in worst case, folding or conversion to bot teams of some franchises if the rookie class numbers diminish in the future.
Despite its risk, expansion is still the better option in this situation, as there are just too much rookies that need to be accommodated. Had the season 22 class was only about 100~150 people strong, only the increase of cap space would have surmised. However, as this class is almost twice that number, and because further recruitment in sites like reddit are planned, expansion will be the solution.
D. How much expansion do we need?
Some on the NSFL forum say that this is the time for a 4 team expansion, while others say that a 2 team expansion will do. The former citing the sheer number of this rookie class and possibility of future classes as big as this one, and the latter citing the risk of biting more than the league can chew.
Among those two proposed options, 2 team expansion is the more reasonable option in my opinion. First, 4 team expansion is way too risky, as it will always need a big rookie class. 4 new teams will provide about 80 roster spots under current cap. That is quite a lot, even in this draft class' standards, as it covers all of the max earners and semi- max earners. And the annual roster need for rookies are going to increase a lot. This setup is almost bound to fail if small rookie class- say like under 80 people- come around for several seasons in a row. And the aftermath of those failure might be detrimental for both individual players and the league in general.
Also, 2 team expansion provide more than enough spots, if appropriate moves are made. Expansion of 2 teams will provide 40 spots under status quo. While that number can be small against bigger classes, that can be
easily rectified by increasing the cap space a little. For instance, a $5 million increase in cap space, designated for rookie or secong year player signings, there will be room for about 2 more players per team, which is 24 spots in a 12 team setting. This will be more than enough spots and far more safe as cap space can be easily adjusted and new teams can be formed if the demand continues to increase.
E. Side notes
- In my opinion, max earners and about 1/3~1/2 of semi max earners making NSFL roster in their first year of eligibility will be ideal situation. For S22 class, that number is about 48~56. So I think 2 expansion teams plus about $5 mil increase of cap will be enough to accommodate them plus second year senddowns.
-From what I've heard, Vancouver had expressed interest in housing a NSFL expansion team, and that expansion team is being structured nicely with both GMs in position. I wish them luck in their endeavors.
(1612)
![[Image: 003p.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/L6LP7S5b/003p.png)
![[Image: 9HnCxY0.png]](https://i.imgur.com/9HnCxY0.png)
