[div align=\\\"center\\\"]NSFL POWER RANKINGS WEEKS 8-10[/div]
TLDR:
1. New Orleans 1.6559
2. Orange County 1.3591
3. Colorado 1.1567
4. Austin 1.0176
5. Baltimore 0.97953
6. Chicago 0.9501
7. Yellowknife 0.9474
8. Arizona 0.7582
9. San Jose 0.6312
10. Philadelphia 0.6024
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]METHOD[/div]
As with my DSFL method changes, we have massive changes again here. The changes made were
1. Inclusion of average offensive yards and total points for
2. Inclusion of average defensive yards and total points against
3. Standardized to a 500TPE team from a 750 TPE team (this just changes the numbers a bit but doesn’t touch the actual rankings
Furthermore, I calculate with this new formula that for every 0.01 worth of TPE score, a team has about 40-50 TPE depending on how optimized that TPE is (having 1000 TPE in a QB makes more of a difference than 1000 TPE in a DE for example). This isn’t too relevant for the main offensive, defensive and overall power rankings with index, as TPE makes up only 33%-45% of the score, depending on the team. I standardized the yards and points by giving up to 1 point for the team with the best value in each category, and giving an appropriate fraction of a point based on how close a team was to the top value. I did this for both points and yards which means up to 2 points are available for raw performance. Using the offensive rankings as an example, I add this to a team raw TPE score, which ranges from 1.12 (San Jose) to 1.784 (Austin). This means there is a 0.66-point gap San Jose would have to cover which could possibly be done via performance as there are up to 2 points to be had there. I went with this model since I don’t think past performance effects the sim, and can be used in a predictive way in the same way it can be used in the NFL. At the end of the day, the sim always accounts for TPE in some way.
I should also note that the 0.66 difference, which is purely offense and so can be multiplied by 2 to account for its averaging into the combined score and gives us a value of 1.32, equates pretty accurately to the offensive TPE differences between SJ and Austin. Assuming 50 TPE per 0.01, we get a difference that is within 100 TPE of the actual TPE difference between the two teams.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]RESULTS[/div]
TPE RANKINGS
https://imgur.com/g3ERGm8
I’ll try to include the base TPE scores in an imgur link from here on out. This is autogenerated by the spreadsheet.
OFFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
1. New Orleans 3.5753
2. Baltimore 3.5204
3. Colorado 3.501
4. Chicago 3.4343
5. Orange County 3.4229
6. Austin 3.3902
7. Yellowknife 3.3034
8. Philadelphia 2.9474
9. Arizona 2.8455
10. San Jose 2.4517
Offensively, San Jose is in a class of its own. With 114 points scored, its tough to imagine a team that’s worse when it comes to putting up points. Frequent turnovers and lack of yardage have been an issue all year round. Arizona and Philly are up next with similar numbers. Yellowknife, Austin, Orange County and Chicago all inhabit our third tier. Finally, the top 3 offences this year all sit relatively close to each other. In terms of raw performance, Baltimore has done slightly better at 429 yards per game, compared to NOLA’s 412 and Colorado’s 406.
DEFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
1. New Orleans 3.5317
2. Orange County 2.9293
3. Colorado 2.6892
4. YellowKnife 2.6892
5. Baltimore 2.571
6. San Jose 2.4159
7. Philadelphia 2.407
8. Austin 2.3661
9. Chicago 2.122
10. Arizona 2.0460
Its here on defence that we see our largest discrepancies. Again, we have our tier of bottom feeders with Arizona and Chicago, followed by a swath of middle tier teams ranging from Austin to Colorado. Orange County separates itself from the pack, but its been New Orleans that’s really solidified itself as the #1 defence in the league.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]
FINAL COMBINED POWER RANKINGS WITH INDEX[/div]
(First bracket number is where they sit in terms of raw stats, second is their TPE ranking)
1. New Orleans 1.6559 (1) (1)
2. Orange County 1.3591 (2) (6)
3. Colorado 1.1567 (3) (2)
4. Austin 1.0176 (6) (5)
5. Baltimore 0.97953 (4) (3)
6. Chicago 0.9501 (8) (8)
7. YellowKnife 0.9474 (5) (4)
8. Arizona 0.7582 (10) (9)
9. San Jose 0.6312 (9) (10)
10. Philadelphia 0.6024 (7) (7)
So here we are at the midpoint of the season. Week 7 is done, and our rankings are taking shape. In terms of these power rankings pre-season rankings, things are more or less the way they were predicted. There was some technical difficulty with some of my previous power rankings, so for reference I will allude to my S(21) Season predictions, found here. If the season ended today, the only thing that would be wrong would be that the 2nd and 3rd teams in both conferences would need to be flipped. Apart from that, the non-playoff teams, the top teams and the season winner would all be correct. This would indicate that there is some capability of prediction in the NSFL (as opposed to the DSFL which seems to be random) and that these power rankings have some predictive potential. Now, onto the analysis
1. Philly is our big loser of the season thus far, with 6 straight losses. While they haven’t performed the worst (they sit in 7th in terms of raw yards and points), they simply cannot find ways to win games. Against a vulnerable Arizona team, they threw 6 interceptions, 5 taking place in the last 16 minutes. Simply not acceptable at this level.
2. San Jose follows closely behind. SJ comes in at 9th in terms of raw stats and quite frankly they too have just stunk. Its not a turnover issue with SJ, it’s just a lack of talent on that roster. Coming in with the worst TPE ranked roster, its not really a surprise that they are doing this poorly
3. Arizona beat San Jose and Philly so they get to be ahead of both of those teams in this edition of power rankings. Does that mean Arizona doesn’t stink? No, Arizona still stinks. Putting up the worst numbers of any team, they’re lucky to have 2 wins.
4. Yellowknife has been a bit of a conundrum this year on paper they’re the 4th best team in the league, and in terms of actual performance they sit at 5th, yet here they are at #7 in these power rankings. They had a great win against the Hawks, but loses against the Butchers and San Jose really sink their scoring with these rankings. With a very tough week ahead with Orange County and Colorado, and then New Orleans on the road, Yellowknife is in for a world of hurt if they can’t get their act together soon. Sitting in the playoffs by virtue of only a tie break, they are seriously in danger of jeopardizing their playoff hopes.
5. Chicago comes in at #6. I know there’s been some drama with Chicago, but quite frankly I think they are having a good year They have 3 winnable games in the last half of this season, which could very well be enough to squeak into the playoffs. With the 8th ranked TPE squad and the 8th rank in terms of raw stats, I will say Chicago might be overperforming just a hair. A key win against the Wraiths in week 7 by a mere 1 point after the Wraiths failed to convert an extra point is a testament to some of that overperformance. To be frank I think the Wraiths take that game if they do tie it up and send it to OT. Chicago needs to string together at least 3 wins to prove they are worthy of a post season berth.
6. Baltimore at #5 is an underperformance in my eyes Still sitting atop the NSFC thanks to tie breaks with Colorado, the Hawks went 1-3 this week, with notable losses to the Wraiths and the Yeti in weeks 6 and 7. A tough week for sure but Hawks fans should look forward to next week where a 3-0 is likely. I see the Hawks going 4-2 to close the season and they should secure a #1 or #2 seed with no difficulty
7. Austin at #4 is firstly, a testament to how good the ASFC is this year. With 3 of the top 4 teams coming from that division. Like Baltimore, I can see a 4-2 close to this season and a #2-#3 seed in the playoffs. With just how bad the Sabercats and the Outlaws have been, playoffs are not a problem for the reigning champs. If things don’t go as planned for Orange County, I can see Austin sneaking into the 2nd seed for the ASFC. One concerning thing to note is how Austin is only ranked 6th in terms of raw points, and specifically rated 8th in defense. Against stronger teams this may indeed by Austin’s Achilles heel going forward
8. Ah Colorado. A week ago they were struggling, going into the week 1-2. I wrote an article detailing why I thought Colorado’s problems were relatively fluky, and like it was all rigged to begin with, the Colorado Yeti started to perform. Going 3-1 this week, the Yeti find themselves tied for 1st in the NSFC. With maybe the easiest second half schedule of any top tier team, the Yeti are in control of their destiny and should be able to secure the #1 seed if they perform.
9. Orange County, the mystery of the season, at least for me. With the 6th best TPE stats, OCO has somehow wrangled themselves into #2 on this power rankings, and #2 in terms of overall stats. I’m not sure how they’re doing it, perhaps somebody else would like to do some research into that. Regardless, OCO is only edged out by the #1 seed NOLA. Like NOLA, OCO boasts a top tier defense, which seems to be the key this season to winning games.
10. New Orleans, our #1 team so far this year, looks unbeatable. Every drive just seems like it’s going to go their way. I will admit their offense seems to come in waves, and does at times stall out, but that is easily forgiven with an elite defense like theirs. With a win against OCO in week 5, they proved they were #1. The rest of their schedule is not cake walk though, with games against Austin, OCO and Baltimore, NOLA still has to prove they can do it for an entire season.
1795 words
TLDR:
1. New Orleans 1.6559
2. Orange County 1.3591
3. Colorado 1.1567
4. Austin 1.0176
5. Baltimore 0.97953
6. Chicago 0.9501
7. Yellowknife 0.9474
8. Arizona 0.7582
9. San Jose 0.6312
10. Philadelphia 0.6024
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]METHOD[/div]
As with my DSFL method changes, we have massive changes again here. The changes made were
1. Inclusion of average offensive yards and total points for
2. Inclusion of average defensive yards and total points against
3. Standardized to a 500TPE team from a 750 TPE team (this just changes the numbers a bit but doesn’t touch the actual rankings
Furthermore, I calculate with this new formula that for every 0.01 worth of TPE score, a team has about 40-50 TPE depending on how optimized that TPE is (having 1000 TPE in a QB makes more of a difference than 1000 TPE in a DE for example). This isn’t too relevant for the main offensive, defensive and overall power rankings with index, as TPE makes up only 33%-45% of the score, depending on the team. I standardized the yards and points by giving up to 1 point for the team with the best value in each category, and giving an appropriate fraction of a point based on how close a team was to the top value. I did this for both points and yards which means up to 2 points are available for raw performance. Using the offensive rankings as an example, I add this to a team raw TPE score, which ranges from 1.12 (San Jose) to 1.784 (Austin). This means there is a 0.66-point gap San Jose would have to cover which could possibly be done via performance as there are up to 2 points to be had there. I went with this model since I don’t think past performance effects the sim, and can be used in a predictive way in the same way it can be used in the NFL. At the end of the day, the sim always accounts for TPE in some way.
I should also note that the 0.66 difference, which is purely offense and so can be multiplied by 2 to account for its averaging into the combined score and gives us a value of 1.32, equates pretty accurately to the offensive TPE differences between SJ and Austin. Assuming 50 TPE per 0.01, we get a difference that is within 100 TPE of the actual TPE difference between the two teams.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]RESULTS[/div]
TPE RANKINGS
https://imgur.com/g3ERGm8
I’ll try to include the base TPE scores in an imgur link from here on out. This is autogenerated by the spreadsheet.
OFFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
1. New Orleans 3.5753
2. Baltimore 3.5204
3. Colorado 3.501
4. Chicago 3.4343
5. Orange County 3.4229
6. Austin 3.3902
7. Yellowknife 3.3034
8. Philadelphia 2.9474
9. Arizona 2.8455
10. San Jose 2.4517
Offensively, San Jose is in a class of its own. With 114 points scored, its tough to imagine a team that’s worse when it comes to putting up points. Frequent turnovers and lack of yardage have been an issue all year round. Arizona and Philly are up next with similar numbers. Yellowknife, Austin, Orange County and Chicago all inhabit our third tier. Finally, the top 3 offences this year all sit relatively close to each other. In terms of raw performance, Baltimore has done slightly better at 429 yards per game, compared to NOLA’s 412 and Colorado’s 406.
DEFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
1. New Orleans 3.5317
2. Orange County 2.9293
3. Colorado 2.6892
4. YellowKnife 2.6892
5. Baltimore 2.571
6. San Jose 2.4159
7. Philadelphia 2.407
8. Austin 2.3661
9. Chicago 2.122
10. Arizona 2.0460
Its here on defence that we see our largest discrepancies. Again, we have our tier of bottom feeders with Arizona and Chicago, followed by a swath of middle tier teams ranging from Austin to Colorado. Orange County separates itself from the pack, but its been New Orleans that’s really solidified itself as the #1 defence in the league.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]
FINAL COMBINED POWER RANKINGS WITH INDEX[/div]
(First bracket number is where they sit in terms of raw stats, second is their TPE ranking)
1. New Orleans 1.6559 (1) (1)
2. Orange County 1.3591 (2) (6)
3. Colorado 1.1567 (3) (2)
4. Austin 1.0176 (6) (5)
5. Baltimore 0.97953 (4) (3)
6. Chicago 0.9501 (8) (8)
7. YellowKnife 0.9474 (5) (4)
8. Arizona 0.7582 (10) (9)
9. San Jose 0.6312 (9) (10)
10. Philadelphia 0.6024 (7) (7)
So here we are at the midpoint of the season. Week 7 is done, and our rankings are taking shape. In terms of these power rankings pre-season rankings, things are more or less the way they were predicted. There was some technical difficulty with some of my previous power rankings, so for reference I will allude to my S(21) Season predictions, found here. If the season ended today, the only thing that would be wrong would be that the 2nd and 3rd teams in both conferences would need to be flipped. Apart from that, the non-playoff teams, the top teams and the season winner would all be correct. This would indicate that there is some capability of prediction in the NSFL (as opposed to the DSFL which seems to be random) and that these power rankings have some predictive potential. Now, onto the analysis
1. Philly is our big loser of the season thus far, with 6 straight losses. While they haven’t performed the worst (they sit in 7th in terms of raw yards and points), they simply cannot find ways to win games. Against a vulnerable Arizona team, they threw 6 interceptions, 5 taking place in the last 16 minutes. Simply not acceptable at this level.
2. San Jose follows closely behind. SJ comes in at 9th in terms of raw stats and quite frankly they too have just stunk. Its not a turnover issue with SJ, it’s just a lack of talent on that roster. Coming in with the worst TPE ranked roster, its not really a surprise that they are doing this poorly
3. Arizona beat San Jose and Philly so they get to be ahead of both of those teams in this edition of power rankings. Does that mean Arizona doesn’t stink? No, Arizona still stinks. Putting up the worst numbers of any team, they’re lucky to have 2 wins.
4. Yellowknife has been a bit of a conundrum this year on paper they’re the 4th best team in the league, and in terms of actual performance they sit at 5th, yet here they are at #7 in these power rankings. They had a great win against the Hawks, but loses against the Butchers and San Jose really sink their scoring with these rankings. With a very tough week ahead with Orange County and Colorado, and then New Orleans on the road, Yellowknife is in for a world of hurt if they can’t get their act together soon. Sitting in the playoffs by virtue of only a tie break, they are seriously in danger of jeopardizing their playoff hopes.
5. Chicago comes in at #6. I know there’s been some drama with Chicago, but quite frankly I think they are having a good year They have 3 winnable games in the last half of this season, which could very well be enough to squeak into the playoffs. With the 8th ranked TPE squad and the 8th rank in terms of raw stats, I will say Chicago might be overperforming just a hair. A key win against the Wraiths in week 7 by a mere 1 point after the Wraiths failed to convert an extra point is a testament to some of that overperformance. To be frank I think the Wraiths take that game if they do tie it up and send it to OT. Chicago needs to string together at least 3 wins to prove they are worthy of a post season berth.
6. Baltimore at #5 is an underperformance in my eyes Still sitting atop the NSFC thanks to tie breaks with Colorado, the Hawks went 1-3 this week, with notable losses to the Wraiths and the Yeti in weeks 6 and 7. A tough week for sure but Hawks fans should look forward to next week where a 3-0 is likely. I see the Hawks going 4-2 to close the season and they should secure a #1 or #2 seed with no difficulty
7. Austin at #4 is firstly, a testament to how good the ASFC is this year. With 3 of the top 4 teams coming from that division. Like Baltimore, I can see a 4-2 close to this season and a #2-#3 seed in the playoffs. With just how bad the Sabercats and the Outlaws have been, playoffs are not a problem for the reigning champs. If things don’t go as planned for Orange County, I can see Austin sneaking into the 2nd seed for the ASFC. One concerning thing to note is how Austin is only ranked 6th in terms of raw points, and specifically rated 8th in defense. Against stronger teams this may indeed by Austin’s Achilles heel going forward
8. Ah Colorado. A week ago they were struggling, going into the week 1-2. I wrote an article detailing why I thought Colorado’s problems were relatively fluky, and like it was all rigged to begin with, the Colorado Yeti started to perform. Going 3-1 this week, the Yeti find themselves tied for 1st in the NSFC. With maybe the easiest second half schedule of any top tier team, the Yeti are in control of their destiny and should be able to secure the #1 seed if they perform.
9. Orange County, the mystery of the season, at least for me. With the 6th best TPE stats, OCO has somehow wrangled themselves into #2 on this power rankings, and #2 in terms of overall stats. I’m not sure how they’re doing it, perhaps somebody else would like to do some research into that. Regardless, OCO is only edged out by the #1 seed NOLA. Like NOLA, OCO boasts a top tier defense, which seems to be the key this season to winning games.
10. New Orleans, our #1 team so far this year, looks unbeatable. Every drive just seems like it’s going to go their way. I will admit their offense seems to come in waves, and does at times stall out, but that is easily forgiven with an elite defense like theirs. With a win against OCO in week 5, they proved they were #1. The rest of their schedule is not cake walk though, with games against Austin, OCO and Baltimore, NOLA still has to prove they can do it for an entire season.
1795 words
![[Image: Untitled_Artwork.png]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/732271706806419517/769550826225795102/Untitled_Artwork.png)
![[Image: sketch1596853902954.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/732271706806419517/741483802865696870/sketch1596853902954.png)
![[Image: caltroit_isfl.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/caltroit_isfl.gif)
![[Image: IhEScbX.png]](https://i.imgur.com/IhEScbX.png)
